That's erroring on the side of too many predictions, not to few. We should look at cases where there were no guesses and something appeared
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
I think that's why it takes at least 1-2 years of consistent mentions by multiple individuals that have a proven track record for something to be considered "possible".
IMO PLA watchers in China still outstrip anything else we have, but applying appropriate safeguards for when something is to be taken seriously is important.
The ability to detect the H-20 in development from satellite photos, etc, would vary. We know from prior US programs on stealth aircraft quite often they mainly conducted flights at night precisely to avoid satellite reconnaissance. The aircraft were hidden in the daytime. China could simply to the same to avoid detection. I do agree that once they hit large scale production at Xian it would become obvious though.
Yes they have, both the PLAAF Dingxin Flight Test & Training Base and Cangzhou Flight Training Base, but at least by all know, each regular type was first tested at the factory, then at the CFTE at X#An-Yanliang and the both PLAAF Flight Test & Training Bases.
Thsi IMO however would never be unnoticed, since for XAC, where the H-20 is designed and built, this is both at Xi'an-Yanliang and I cannot think of a stealth bomber being secretly rolled out, secretly test flown only at night thru all the years at Yanliang without any rumour.
Now one could argue, the H-20 is not a regular type and maybe there is a secret XAC factory somewhere hidden under mountains far far away near a similar secret flight test facility, ... yes, there could also be already a secret moon base where the PLA Space Force tests cloaking devices and photon-torpedoes.
What about UFO rumors in China? American test flights often inspired beliefs that "black triangles" were coming to abduct ppl here.
by78
General
This is getting off-topic. Please don't derail the thread. If you must ask, continue this at "Ask anything Thread". Thank you.
Ahem, let me rephrase in a thread-on-topic manner: Have there been any UFO rumour outbreaks in China that might be related to H-20 sightings by uninformed citizens?
by78
General
I have not noticed anything on Chinese social media or military forums.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
If they were testing and they needed it to keep it a secret, they would fly it at night. Remember how they said China never tested its ASBM because the US would've detected it. Apparently it's been tested and the US never found out about it until China confirmed it with a demonstration the Pentagon seems to acknowledge.
It’s an H-20...
shaped island
shaped island