Guangdong overtakes Taiwan

Autumn Child · Nov 19, 2007

Violet Oboe said:
For bringing the ´lost brother´back into the fold you need a ´strong arm´ but also a forgiving embrace! :china:

Well in general prosperity brings confidence and satisfaction to the populace. Just like in Shanghai, wealth is booming and hardly anyone has a free time to talk politics, just busy making money and enjoying it. The challenge comes when the economy stagnate. It will truly test the stability of the political system and the confidence of the populace to their government.

I agree with Sampan that the news is still significant. This news will boost the confidence of mainlanders and demoralize succesionint in Taiwan. This confidence from economic dominance will also boost the confidence of the military. They will fight more willingly as they believe that their government is guiding them down the correct path. On the contrary, having a stagnant economy, Taiwan populace question the motives of their government and their ability to govern. This in term will effect their military willingness to fight. The signs of discontent are everywhere. This is part of the reason why the DPP are pushing for a futile plan to join the UN. The campaign is designed to rally supporters and boost morals.

sinowarrior · Nov 20, 2007

FuManChu said:
China's economy may be larger than currently estimated, but it's still quite a way behind in terms of things like GDP per capita, social security, public spending, etc.

Of course higher GDP per capita, social securities etc are vital, but from a military spending perspective, those figures are not important. Higher GDP per capita doesn’t mean Taiwan can purchase and produce more weapons compare with the Mainland, whereas high GDP at least allows China to spend considerable larger amount of money on weapon procurement compared to Taiwan. The news is significant because even Guangdong, as a province of China already bypassed Taiwan in total GDP, and other costal provinces are not far behind, this is at least an indicator that amount of money that Chinese government can spend on defence compared to Taiwan.

SampanViking · Nov 21, 2007

Thanks Sinowarrior

A good and concise summary of the point I was trying to make:china:

redarmy2004 · Nov 22, 2007

guangdong gdp is greater then Taiwan so. California gdp is greater then all of China

ccL1 · Nov 23, 2007

redarmy2004 said:
guangdong gdp is greater then Taiwan so. California gdp is greater then all of China

Uhmm...are you sure?

California's nominal Gross State Product is $1.727 trillion (2006) from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

China's nominal GDP is $2.65 trillion (2006) from the average of what the World Bank and IMF lists it as.

And seeing as how California is estimated to have 3.1% annual growth, while China is estimated to have between 10 to 11% annual growth, the above figures will continue to diverge.

Quickie · Nov 23, 2007

Although there are arguments as to the actual figure, China's GDP in PPP terms is getting closer to that of the U.S.

sm68 · Nov 23, 2007

Finn McCool said:
I don't see why people are making such a big deal out of this. It is perfectly natural and is destined to happen. It would be absurd to believe that Taiwan would ever be able to match much of China's output, and it would be absurd to try to critize Taiwan for failing to. Imagine that New Jersey is independent from the rest of the US. Now imagine people trying to analyze the fact New Jersey has less economic ouput than New York. It's obvious, New York has NTC and the entire US to back its economy up, and NEw Jersey just has New Jersey! So its obvious that Guangdong, the most economically vibrant region of China, would overtake Taiwan, since they are relatively equal in size. I don't see why people seem to think that this is something to be worried about, or gloat about, or figure into a military situation. It's not like the size of Guangdong's economy is going to subtract anything from Taiwan's military budget or even affect it at all. Sure, the potential amount the PRC can outspend the ROC by will grow with the PRC's economy, but that amount is already so large that this particular news item doesn't really mean anything. Again, its the New Jersey vs. the rest of the US situation. One cannot expect New Jersey to match the rest of the US's miliary spending.

Well said. This news has no particular meaning but talks about something deemed to happen. When talk about the GDP or per capita of Guangdong, don't forget the outputs of millions of peasant workers who come from poorer weaster provinces to work in Guangdong. They may not be counted in Guangdong's population.

SampanViking · Nov 24, 2007

sm68 said:
Well said. This news has no particular meaning but talks about something deemed to happen. When talk about the GDP or per capita of Guangdong, don't forget the outputs of millions of peasant workers who come from poorer weaster provinces to work in Guangdong. They may not be counted in Guangdong's population.

Does the US worry about it Latino's or the UK its Poles and other East Europeans when they calculate their GDP growth or per capita figures? Hardly they are happy to take what they can get.

Guangdongs performance is both an indicator and a milestone. Taiwan should be doing better and working as a significant launch pad for International Investment and Corporations into the opening domestic markets of the PRC. It would appear that fears of security instability are causing much of this potential goldmine to bypass the Island and look for homes elsewhere. It works on both sides of the Straits, which is why Fujian was significant in its absence in my earlier list of Coastal Provinces likely to overtake Taiwan in the next few years.

Raptoreyes · Nov 24, 2007

There's a great big elephant sitting in the middle of the room that this thread misses.

Not an elephant Raptoreyes, but very clear rules which you should have read in respect of Taiwan related threads and flamebaiting in general.

I would respectfully remind you that this is a Chinese Military Forum and not a US Fanboy site or kids chatroom.

Some of what you had to say was of interest, so read the rules, reformulate your post, and try again.

Sampanviking

sm68 · Nov 24, 2007

SampanViking said:
Does the US worry about it Latino's or the UK its Poles and other East Europeans when they calculate their GDP growth or per capita figures? Hardly they are happy to take what they can get.

Guangdongs performance is both an indicator and a milestone. Taiwan should be doing better and working as a significant launch pad for International Investment and Corporations into the opening domestic markets of the PRC. It would appear that fears of security instability are causing much of this potential goldmine to bypass the Island and look for homes elsewhere. It works on both sides of the Straits, which is why Fujian was significant in its absence in my earlier list of Coastal Provinces likely to overtake Taiwan in the next few years.

Thanks for your observation. Taiwan has been going to a wrong track since 1990's. Its opportunity to be the lauch pad to mainland China's market had been missed out and will not come back, even the political stability is restored in near feature, and security is not a concern. It is now more cost effective to directly set up ventures in mailand China. The PRC's commitment of pouring investment into the country's infrastructure is unprecedented, literally.
Fujian may not be the next to overtake Taiwan, more likely Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are two provinces neighbored Shanghai. Shanghai to these to provinces is like Hong Kong and Guangzhou to Guangdong.
Check this out, and pay attention to the mention of Yangshan deep-water port:

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Guangdong overtakes Taiwan

Autumn Child

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