Global Chinese diplomatic presence and intervention?

FairAndUnbiased said:

100% agreed, I think there was a lost opportunity in the SCS. If I was the CN government, my #1 priority would be to kick PH out of SCS by making a deal with VN. PH in the SCS makes everything way more complicated.

VNis easily #2 in the SCS with their modern long ranged Su-30s, S-300s, Kilos and Gepard VLS frigates, kind of like a 2000's mini CN.. CN is the only other claimant in the SCS with all of long ranged fighters, modern subs and VLS equipped ships. Secretly giving VN more freedom to kick PH around and harass TW as long as they stay away from CN islands is better than having the complex mix of N countries in the area.

Most importantly, it would make the conflict look complicated and confusing, rather than all vs. CN, making it politically complicated to stir up public opinion against China.

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There is still time for that Indonesia can join too. Doesn't have to be secret either. I would burst out of laughter if Indonesia, Vietnam and China releases a declaration condemning the PH for its aggression

What do you think about Sino-Indian relations? There, I think the current state of affairs is good. It keeps India at limbo while forcing it to waste its resources watching mountains. It also keeps Pakistan engaged to China. Most ideal scenario would be India-Russia-China partnership. But China should definitely not abandon Pakistan and India is not trustworthy at all.

Biscuits said:

The third world are rotten, filled with scum because they're tainted by colonialism. They lack a belief in freedom and lack high trust. That makes them the prey of capitalists, because the lower capitalist will always seek the higher capitalist, that is, the United States because it is the biggest capitalist society.

One can lament this as much as one want but it is hardly constructive. Instead, China needs to gather all the ex Soviet, build them up further, and head towards a decisive clash, where afterwards, the colonized will be persuaded to accept a new master, one which will actually grant them freedom once they've been cured of mental disorders.

In their current state, these societies just cannot function without having a capitalist master. Even if they get a Duterte for one cycle, he can be quickly removed and replaced with a puppet for the oligarchs.

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It's known in psychology that people with low self esteem enjoy being mistreated and demeaned by their partners because they subconsciously believe it is how they should be treated: they believe their abusive partner truly sees the "real them".

Bellum_Romanum said:

I must say there's a certain logic to your explanation with regards to Bongbong Marcos Jr. sudden turnaround from being friends to all, enemy to none rhetoric to now becoming an almost full pledged anti-China camp which made me really soured on the guy and confirmed my worst suspicion on that man's Machiavellian ethos. But why was his predecessor (Duterte) able to reign in the so-called pro-American military officers albeit with great political deftness that prevented Duterte from being couped/sidelined even though that man had less of a mandate in terms of popular votes compared to what Marcos Jr. received in the latest Philippine presidential election. Duterte was even more pro-China and openly courted Chinese assistance defying the request of American overtures regarding the use of Huawei network in the Philippines among other things. Where did Duterte got the courage to openly defy America? How did Duterte gained the intelligence that then American ambassador to the PHilippines was planning to oust him via military coup? Surely, that level of counterintelligence could have been aided by an outside help in the form of China no?

While I do share the sentiment that China appears to act mostly as a mercantilist power and appears very calculating and even scared to act that would offend American sensibilities where even to this day despite all the attacks leveled against the country it still strive to work assiduously to avoid antagonizing America/West for the sake of it's vital economic growth. Which further lends credence to the notion and perception that CPC is only a recession away from being toppled a.k.a. China collapse theory. People are too buys concerning itself with making money that it lost its sense of purpose, it's political compass. There's no passion, even its constant admonition of no intervention appears and comes across as cold, heartless, uber calculating borg rather than as a great country willing to fight and die for something worth fighting for.

America for all it's fault manages to keep finding cannon fodders of peoples from all countries because of their high minded rhetorical jujitsu, and political narrative that attracts people from even breaking with their countries culture, families, lineage etc...Ukraine, Taiwan, EU countries etc..can be recruited to fight the last Chinese for an IDEA.

China does not want to lead a world but it has to or it'll find itself soon enough at the foot of another western colonial power. Sometimes, I feel that China acts like that dumb dumb racist Chinese professor that's recently made news in China where he categorically said that going to school is purely to make $$ seek to open your legs to breed with White race due to their superior genes = subordinate role. Make money, make interracial babies with superior race, and avoid any trouble. Who gives a flying f...k if the world burns, China does not owe the world anything. It's a strawman argument but it's a sentiment, even I as a person of Chinese descent feel at times towards the current ruling government.

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China's ruling establishment have an older generation still traumatized by the era of starvation and poverty. Getting more money and avoiding trouble is their actual, genuine ideology. It is something that China's formerly impoverished population and most third world countries can get behind. China has no motive or comprehension of the world outside of that lense. They have no vision of what a future world should look like, as long as the parameters that China has enough growing room for itself are met (very much an engineer's mindset). That's why China has zero charisma in pushing for international political reform and has to rely on compatriots like Iran, Brazil's Lula and Putin to rally supporters and spearhead movements. Because China has no understanding of other societies and cultures thus no understanding of the respective merits of the proposed ideology, they have no confidence to commit fully. The upside is that should these first movers fail miserably, China can recoup losses and back the next visionary.

We could say that younger generations will have more assertiveness and confidence in China's power, but I cannot say they will be any more worldly. Most students that come to US are STEM and prefer to stay in their Chinese clique or enclaves. The upside of this is that in their "naivety", these generations have hopes and visions of the future not encumbered by the defeatist cynicism of the falling West.

China's cultural isolationism is a strength and weakness that is a subject not easy to advise on but we can all agree it creates hilarious situations. Reading Wang Huning's America against America accurately depicts China's struggle to understand other societies. China's attitude to the 8 nations seem to vacillate between "white worship" and "barbaric foreigners", and its cultural understanding of nonwhites are even worse. Let's not pretend China is any far from the Phillipines- the only difference is China's ego has gotten bigger since 2008 and Trump gave us a helpful push towards independent thinking. Perhaps before China attempts to deprogram others it should first deprogram itself.

Given China's lack of interest in the new world order and Russia's impotence, it will ultimately be the West's collapse that defines what will come next. Who will it drag down with them and which of their institutions will collapse first? What reactionary actions will they force China to take to defend against their death throes?

China has few allies because it doesn't commit to potential allies and sacrifices their interests for concessions from the West. North Korea is one example. China supported very painful sanctions on its ally instead of supporting them. Instead of complying with the American method of sanctions, China could have offered to station Chinese nukes there and put Chinese soldiers at the border with south Korea to give the North a security guarantee. At the same time, China should be increasing in North Korea and opening its markets to Korean products. Instead, the trade relationship with the US and South Korea take precedence over supporting an ally. The US does the opposite, it sacrifices its own wealth by damaging its trade relationship with China and supporting security in Japan and others


It's essentially the same problem with Iran. Every time Iran gets sanctioned, China uses this is an opportunity to sacrifice Iran to get less pressure from the US on itself. It should also be obvious that Iran is genuinely scared of being invaded or couped again, so sanctions won't change their mind on nuclearisation. China should give them a security guarantee strong enough that they don't need nuclear weapons anymore, not comply with American sanctions. As for trade and investment, there's more words than action and Chinese companies delay or pull out of Iran in response to American desires.

China attempted to court Venezuela but abandoned them when they experienced political trouble and American sanctions.

The relationship with Pakistan is positive, partially because Pakistan is already an accepted nuclear power and has a good enough relationship with the US. But Pakistan is a very poor country, close to being a failed state. And now that they're close to default, China is doing little. Why not formalise the relationship with a mutual defence treaty and give Pakistan better access to the Chinese market?

Finally, there's Russia. Again, China is using the situation economically to its own benefit. But there's little help in other areas even simple satellite data with plausible deniability. Of course Russia is responsible for this as well by starting an offensive war

Looking at these examples, why would a country like the Philippines choose China as an ally over the US? China will sanction them, comply with American sanctions, provide little help in security or trade if it has any cost in access to western markets and technology. The US has many faults, but they do stand by their (democratic) allies. That leaves China with countries that have no other option, like Saudi Arabia with its royal family or the military government of Myanmar and the kingdom of Thailand. But even these countries try to balance China and the west/India, because they know China will abandon them if the US launches a sanctions campaign against them


If you don't build up your allies economically, you end up with poor allies that can't help you much geopolitically. None of them will commit to China because China won't commit to them. You can argue that none of the potential allies are big enough to deserve a large country like China making a sacrifice for them, but the advertisement is not good for China.

What's most puzzling is that China is now getting sanctioned anyway by a united west and it's still not committing to its potential allies. Sure, buying Iranian oil and selling oil to North Korea might invite sanctions to come even faster, but they're coming anyway and building up your allies into another high tech country like South Korea would absolutely be worth it

Simple, if China gives lethal aid to Russia, EU and US will sanction China and it will have major consequences for its economy and thus society. Something that the Chinese authorities are trying to avoid at all cost.

Mass unemployment and economic downturn is bad for stability and China isn't going to sacrifice that for Russia.

Look how subservient Putin was when meeting Wang Yi. Never seen before and it's actually a good thing that China tries to mediate between Ru and Ukr, while at the same time harshly criticizing the US for flaming the fire.

Let China be the neutral mediator to put an end to this unnecessary war and let the dogs on the periphery bark.

BoraTas said:

There is still time for that Indonesia can join too. Doesn't have to be secret either. I would burst out of laughter if Indonesia, Vietnam and China releases a declaration condemning the PH for its aggression

What do you think about Sino-Indian relations? There, I think the current state of affairs is good. It keeps India at limbo while forcing it to waste its resources watching mountains. It also keeps Pakistan engaged to China. Most ideal scenario would be India-Russia-China partnership. But China should definitely not abandon Pakistan and India is not trustworthy at all.

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Relations with India are mostly bad due to Indian side, not Chinese side. The big thing about India is that as long as you don't do anything irreversible they'll eventually forget about past humiliations. I mean look at the Bay of Bengal crisis in 1971 with Nixon, and now look at them. Pressure is good, but don't be seen to go on the offensive. If India goes on the offensive unprovoked, of course, then what has to be done should be done.

In general for Chinese diplomacy the most important growth areas are ASEAN, Central Eurasia, Africa and India. Whoever has the most influence here will control the 21st century because these are the places where the resources, population growth and/or real economic growth (in the hands of consumers, not investors) will be. Global crises will also be here - climate change, disease, poverty. The key is to set up a Chinese centered industrial ecosystem where China is a tier 1 supplier of goods/components/tools, and also sells tools/components to other countries for manufacturing. It is a long process and every move has to be taken carefully as the goal is nothing less than making a better world without destroying it in the process.

This video from Guancha explains whats going on with Philippines and SCS. It has nothing to do with Duterte or Marcos, but rather US foreign policy and Philippine elites which are blatantly pro-US. Philippines will remain a US colony until American troops are kicked out, China knows this and planned accordingly.

coolgod said:

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This video from Guancha explains whats going on with Philippines and SCS. It has nothing to do with Duterte or Marcos, but rather US foreign policy and Philippine elites which are blatantly pro-US.

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This shows that in countries without true sovereignty, no matter who becomes the president or prime minister of the country, the entire system itself is already infiltrated and corrupted. The only way to resolve this is to root out all the influences and control from every nanny-and-crook of the entire system. The entire system will then have to be reformatted and reset before they could function properly ever again.

coolgod said:

Philippines will remain a US colony until American troops are kicked out, China knows this and planned accordingly.

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And a permanent Chinese military presence must be introduced into the country to fill in the gap which the US has left behind. Until the transformation of the system is complete, no other aspiring military power can be allowed to do the same, such as Russia and India - And that Manila should never be granted any chances to pivot to any other aspiring powers apart from China.

This is the only way to secure strategic depth, safety and security for China in a post-WW3 world.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

This shows that in countries without true sovereignty, no matter who becomes the president or prime minister of the country, the entire system itself is already infiltrated and corrupted. The only way to resolve this is to root out all the influences and control from every nanny-and-crook of the entire system. The entire system will then have to be reformatted and reset before they could function properly ever again.


And a permanent Chinese military presence must be introduced into the country to fill in the gap which the US has left behind. Until the transformation of the system is complete, no other aspiring military power can be allowed to do the same, such as Russia and India - And that Manila should never be granted any chances to pivot to any other aspiring powers apart from China.

This is the only way to secure strategic depth, safety and security for China in a post-WW3 world.

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I don't think China wants to or should station troops in the Philippines even after kicking the US out of West Pacific. As long as China gets her islands in the SCS and fortify them with troops China will be safe.

Bellum_Romanum said:

He Did not.

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To be precised@ACuriousPLAFan Pres. Duterte made some disparaging comments against Marcos Jr. before the presidential elections. He was weary and distrustful of Marcos Jr. not to mention pretty dismissive of the currents President's character labeling him as nothing but a "spoiled brat" who grew up with a silver spoon on his mouth. He has the gift of gab, and the command use of English but other than that, he's an empty suit. Duterte only tempered his comments when his daughter was courted successfully to run as President Marcos running mate as his VP candidate.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

This shows that in countries without true sovereignty, no matter who becomes the president or prime minister of the country, the entire system itself is already infiltrated and corrupted. The only way to resolve this is to root out all the influences and control from every nanny-and-crook of the entire system. The entire system will then have to be reformatted and reset before they could function properly ever again.


And a permanent Chinese military presence must be introduced into the country to fill in the gap which the US has left behind. Until the transformation of the system is complete, no other aspiring military power can be allowed to do the same, such as Russia and India - And that Manila should never be granted any chances to pivot to any other aspiring powers apart from China.

This is the only way to secure strategic depth, safety and security for China in a post-WW3 world.

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How do you achieve that goal without a literal "purge" when that place is literally full of self-aggrandizing unprincipled individuals, especially the elites that compose the Philippine body politik who are very very very pro-America.

I am saddened to see that the quality of discussions on here has dropped to the level of feng qing mouth cannons.

China's does not "commit" to potential allies? Are multi-decade economic deals not commitment enough for you?

Of course not, you probably mean China should be extending a security umbrella to those countries, like the US does to its vassals.

Did you all forget that China doesn't have even a fraction of the US' global projection capabilities? As amazing as the PLA recent modernization have been, it was designed to achieve near parity with the US on China's doorsteps.

Currently, China cannot even offer security guarantees to Solomon Islands, what makes you think China can or wants to defy the US military in South America and the Middle East?

Making empty promises is far worse than not making promises at all.