Global Chinese diplomatic presence and intervention?

BoraTas said:

It also has to with China not backing anyone. I know a well connected person. He was quite reliable with predicting what Zhongnanhai will decide on some matters. He recently said me there are rumors about Marcos requesting a guarantee from Xi in case he get couped. You know, all of the PH's military high-brass is US connected. Xi declined. Marcos flipped to the US side after that refusal of course. The threat of violence trumped over money once again. Now the PLA might have a one more attack vector to deal with just because China decided to not involve itself with Filipino internal affairs. Non-interventionism at its full glory...

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Bellum_Romanum said:

Security protection. To avoid getting "exiled" like what happened to his father when Marcos Sr. was flew to Hawaii without his awareness. The family thought they were being flown back to Marcos Sr. political power base, which is in Ilocos, Philippines but they were instead peacefully couped and stationed permanently to the island state of Hawaii.

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That would require China to physically invade the Phillippines in order to rescue and protect Marcos and his family. Besides, the PLA would be forced to have a slug-out fest with the pro-coup Filipino military in the narrow streets of Manila and the mountain ranges of Leyte.

The optics would never be good for China, especially in the eyes of other ASEAN member states who have territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia). What if the PLA invading the Philippines is seen by Jakarta, Hanoi, Putrajaya and Bandar Seri Begawan as China's method of solving their maritime disputes in the South China Sea?

How do you think that these countries would respond as a follow-up? Just take a look at what Finland and Sweden did after Russia invaded Ukraine, and I think you have the answer.

Furthermore, what if the US decides to intervene and backs the pro-coup military/post-Marcos pro-coup government of the Philippines? Would this become a China-US war over the Philippines? Also, what if the US decides to distract China's attention by opening another front for China to deal with (such as over Taiwan and/or the Diaoyu Islands) when China is stuck fighting in the Philippines?

If said exchange is true, no wonder Xi flatly refused Marcos' request.

If anything, Marcos and his family members should be the ones taking a private jet and self-exile to China for political asylum in case he foresaw that a coup by the pro-US Filipino military is inevitable.

Bellum_Romanum said:

I must say there's a certain logic to your explanation with regards to Bongbong Marcos Jr. sudden turnaround from being friends to all, enemy to none rhetoric to now becoming an almost full pledged anti-China camp which made me really soured on the guy and confirmed my worst suspicion on that man's Machiavellian ethos. But why was his predecessor (Duterte) able to reign in the so-called pro-American military officers albeit with great political deftness that prevented Duterte from being couped/sidelined even though that man had less of a mandate in terms of popular votes compared to what Marcos Jr. received in the latest Philippine presidential election. Duterte was even more pro-China and openly courted Chinese assistance defying the request of American overtures regarding the use of Huawei network in the Philippines among other things. Where did Duterte got the courage to openly defy America? How did Duterte gained the intelligence that then American ambassador to the PHilippines was planning to oust him via military coup? Surely, that level of counterintelligence could have been aided by an outside help in the form of China no?

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Honestly, why did Duterte choose Marcos as his successor? Didn't he have a better candidate that is actually cleaner (and thus, less susceptible to attempts of intimidation by the US) than Marcos?

I think you guys are getting worked up over nothing.

Geopolitics is like a game of Weiqi. Your opponent will always be trying to throw you off balance, but a good player doesn't simply respond to their opponent's moves, they play a move elsewhere that would give them the initiative.

Philippines is like a ko on the board. By virtue of its geography and history, it will always swing between US and China.

So many here keep thinking in terms of win and lose, but they forget that in a direct war between China and the US, there are no winners. The best way for China to win is to peacefully manage the American decline. As the Ukraine war has shown, once you go to war, you have already lost.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

What is the guarantee about?

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He didn't say. But I could think of a few things.

- Spying on the Filipino military more extensively so they can warn him about coup plans or find bad deeds of the said pro-American generals.
- Support the PH economically so his admin is more popular. Also, China could promise to heavily sanction the coupers if it happens.
- Promise asylum in China as a government in exile if he gets ousted.
- Allow Filipino govt officials he deems appropriate to invest easily in China. Making bribery easier for him.
- Promise support if the USA sanctions his country.
- Train an anti-coup team from some trusted police to use in the capital.

All this stuff. No invasion is necessary.

Bellum_Romanum said:

I must say there's a certain logic to your explanation with regards to Bongbong Marcos Jr. sudden turnaround from being friends to all, enemy to none rhetoric to now becoming an almost full pledged anti-China camp which made me really soured on the guy and confirmed my worst suspicion on that man's Machiavellian ethos. But why was his predecessor (Duterte) able to reign in the so-called pro-American military officers albeit with great political deftness that prevented Duterte from being couped/sidelined even though that man had less of a mandate in terms of popular votes compared to what Marcos Jr. received in the latest Philippine presidential election. Duterte was even more pro-China and openly courted Chinese assistance defying the request of American overtures regarding the use of Huawei network in the Philippines among other things. Where did Duterte got the courage to openly defy America? How did Duterte gained the intelligence that then American ambassador to the PHilippines was planning to oust him via military coup? Surely, that level of counterintelligence could have been aided by an outside help in the form of China no?

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The story really fits perfectly with what recently happened. That's why I believed it in addition to the person's past good record. Duterte's pro-China stance may be influenced by Filipino internal politics too. If he has his own influence in the military and intelligence, and has problems with the said pro-American cohort. Why not?

Biscuits said:

There's no source whatsoever about China being the "biggest opponent" of NK nuclearization. China doesn't give them TELs because it signed a treaty to the UN not to do so.

If what you claim is true, that means NK is a hostile nuclear power and there's not a snowball's chance they would be allowed to remain on the map. China had no issues fighting both SK and US when it had far less means, if Beijing didn't want a nuclear Pyongyang, it would have couped them, crippled their program with the myriad means they have etc. And Pyongyang today would not have a article 5 style agreement with China that effectively means wherever China goes, NK will follow.

Philippines is an US colony so why should China not have problems that US can move soldiers into its own territories? Did nato have a panic every time USSR moved troops into Poland or East Germany?

What you seem to think is that progress is not fast enough, and what I'm telling you is finding rose tinted glasses into the past when things were much worse is not the solution.

Of course America is dangerous. But that is precisely why they won't go away just by demanding their submission and waving a wand.

We are dealing with the 2nd largest economy in the world, the largest military who has spent a long time slowly building up, using influence and violence to buy and takeover other countries.

Germany in ww2 was not this big, and the allies let them cross 3 major red lines, 1. Building up a massive military and taking back the Rhineland. 2. Annexing Austria. 3. Demanding Eastern territories, before war started in earnest.

Supporting Russia is already fully ongoing. There's no hurry to make Russians win fast. China is ready to defend Taiwan from America whenever US does its thing, but like I stated above, the war America is trying to start is greater than any war we have ever seen, and they're a bigger aggressor than that ever seen before. So the utmost tact and careful approach will be needed.

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A lot of assumptions that are demonstrably wrong.

North Korean-Chinese relations were bad until the last few years or so. In real world North Korea did get nukes despite opposition from pretty much every single country and managed to stay on the map. China didn't veto any of the US-proposed sanctions in the UN. That even included sanctions on North Korea's food supply and healthcare goods. Do you understand the weight of that? China was okay with its treaty ally North Korea starving if that happened. That is way more consequential than a piece of paper that was signed in the 1950s. North Korea didn't choose Juche (autarky and isolationism) route for nothing. They don't trust China and they don't follow it at all. Mao's China would indeed invade NK to stop its nuclear program if they were opposing it. But that's the point. The point is post-1979 China is way too passive to be a great power.

It is not about panic. The point is even weak countries right next to China, with economies highly dependent on China are okay with hosting American military hardware and talking back to China. I'd be OK with it if China had consolidated some other SCS states to its camp to bully Phillippines out of their claims (would be a very valid strategy BTW, earning weak enemies is a good compromise if you are earning stronger allies and bullying your new enemy). But no that's not happening either. This can not be explained by the PH just being a US colony either. You can still work to decrease US influence there. And if it is really a lost cause then band with some other friendly SCS states and bully it. Decrease the trade. There are no reasons to have good relations with a persistent enemy. China isn't doing that either. It is doing nothing. That is the problem.

Chinese support for Russia is pretty much non-existent beyond the economic realm at this point. Russians are buying Turkish body armor from indirect sources. Because reaching Chinese body armor is hard and the govt doesn't allow sales to Russia.

BoraTas said:

North Korean-Chinese relations were bad until the last few years or so. In real world North Korea did get nukes despite opposition from pretty much every single country and managed to stay on the map. China didn't veto any of the US-proposed sanctions in the UN. That even included sanctions on North Korea's food supply and healthcare goods. Do you understand the weight of that? China was okay with its treaty ally North Korea starving if that happened.

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Really incredible how CN treated its only ally just to please Trump and he still started the trade war. PRC gov is full of fools with no common strategic sense!

Chinese support for Russia is pretty much non-existent beyond the economic realm at this point. Russians are buying Turkish body armor from indirect sources. Because reaching Chinese body armor is hard and the govt doesn't allow sales to Russia.

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They should not be Surprised when they also get no serious support in a TW war.

China isn't doing that either. It is doing nothing. That is the problem.

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Nah, they are doing lot of useless meeting with USG

Whoever think China wants another country to have nukes that can reach Beijing in <10 minutes needs to have his head examined.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Honestly, why did Duterte choose Marcos as his successor? Didn't he have a better candidate that is actually cleaner (and thus, less susceptible to attempts of intimidation by the US) than Marcos?

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He Did not.

escobar said:

Really incredible how CN treated its only ally just to please Trump and he still started the trade war. PRC gov is full of fools with no common strategic sense!

They should not be Surprised when they also get no serious support in a TW war.

Nah, they are doing lot of useless meeting with USG

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Yes. China's North Korea policy until 2018 or so was extremely bad. They literally stained their reputation for very temporary good will. There are good developments too though. Erasure of the median line, not condemning Russia (would be ridiculous) and violating sanctions, mostly burying the hatchet with Indonesia, repairing relations with NK, recent attempts at internationalizing Yuan (just another thing China avoided for decades for political reasons), deals with the Middle East etc... They are learning.

BoraTas said:

It is not about panic. The point is even weak countries right next to China, with economies highly dependent on China are okay with hosting American military hardware and talking back to China. I'd be OK with it if China had consolidated some other SCS states to its camp to bully Phillippines out of their claims (would be a very valid strategy BTW, earning weak enemies is a good compromise if you are earning stronger allies and bullying your new enemy). But no that's not happening either. This can not be explained by the PH just being a US colony either. You can still work to decrease US influence there. And if it is really a lost cause then band with some other friendly SCS states and bully it. Decrease the trade. There are no reasons to have good relations with a persistent enemy. China isn't doing that either. It is doing nothing. That is the problem.

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100% agreed, I think there was a lost opportunity in the SCS. If I was the CN government, my #1 priority would be to kick PH out of SCS by making a deal with VN. PH in the SCS makes everything way more complicated.

VNis easily #2 in the SCS with their modern long ranged Su-30s, S-300s, Kilos and Gepard VLS frigates, kind of like a 2000's mini CN.. CN is the only other claimant in the SCS with all of long ranged fighters, modern subs and VLS equipped ships. Secretly giving VN more freedom to kick PH around and harass TW as long as they stay away from CN islands is better than having the complex mix of N countries in the area.

Most importantly, it would make the conflict look complicated and confusing, rather than all vs. CN, making it politically complicated to stir up public opinion against China.