Future PLAN developments - new escorts, subs, LPH, carriers, etc

Yes, although originally I thought it was Bandstand, I am starting to think it is a domestic copy, or at least it is using a very similar radome to Bandstand. We simply don't know what is underneath the dome to say it is truly Bandstand or not. One should not conclude just from the looks of the radome alone. I think it is an indigenous radar that happens to be fitted with a radome similar to Bandstand's.

That Bandstand looking thing only provides fire control for the YJ-83/YJ-62. If you look at the top of the mast of the 052C, you will see a dome that is also fitted on the 051C. That I believe is the search radar for the YJ-62. It is not present on the 052B however, so I am inclined to conclude it has something to do with the YJ-62. When I first saw it on 051C, i theorized that the 051C might have the YJ-62 instead of the YJ-83 and this turned out be correct. Since you don't see this sort of collaboration at all with the real Bandstand on the Sovremannies, there is no reason to think the 052C ASM radars are Bandstand.

crobato said:

Yes, although originally I thought it was Bandstand, I am starting to think it is a domestic copy, or at least it is using a very similar radome to Bandstand. We simply don't know what is underneath the dome to say it is truly Bandstand or not. One should not conclude just from the looks of the radome alone. I think it is an indigenous radar that happens to be fitted with a radome similar to Bandstand's.

That Bandstand looking thing only provides fire control for the YJ-83/YJ-62. If you look at the top of the mast of the 052C, you will see a dome that is also fitted on the 051C. That I believe is the search radar for the YJ-62. It is not present on the 052B however, so I am inclined to conclude it has something to do with the YJ-62. When I first saw it on 051C, i theorized that the 051C might have the YJ-62 instead of the YJ-83 and this turned out be correct. Since you don't see this sort of collaboration at all with the real Bandstand on the Sovremannies, there is no reason to think the 052C ASM radars are Bandstand.

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actually, 051C has YJ-83 from the look at the YJ-83 cannisters on the recent photos. So, you are basically saying that the type 364 radar is the one that searches for the targets and bandstand simply provides the guidance for YJ series? Interesting, I guess that explains how it can have a 450 KM range. I wonder what the range of type 364 radar is against surface objects.

Based on the 'golden' model, the 051C appears to have YJ-62 cannisters. Yes, of course, we like to see it closer. So far for a large destroyer, we are only seeing the four cannister arrangement of the YJ-62 rather than the 8 cannister arrangement of the YJ-83. This is especially in the light that the 167 Luhai uses the 8 cannister arrangement. Can't see why the new 051C should have less ASM firepower than the 051B.

Yes, I think the Bandstand like radar provides tracking and command guidance for the ASMs. In order to get that much range, the search radar must be at the highest altitude in the ship. The fire control radar does not need to go as far because at one point, the ASM will go terminal and autonomous, and would not need the surface radar's support. The ASMs only need to be directed up to a point.

In the 052B, that search function was provided by the Fregat Top Plate. That is the way it works with the Sovremannies too. Sometimes I think the Bandstand like radar on the 052B might still be real Bandstand because it needs to work with the Fregat, which has to be the genuine article to work with the SA-N-12. Though I wonder how you can make the Bandstand work with the YJ-83, unless the YJ-83s are literally reading off the same datalink information as the Sunburns which is the original missile made to work for the Bandstand.

Working with the Type 364 radar, the Bandstand like radar on the 052C won't be the real Bandstand anymore, but an indigenously inspired version of it.

I will start a thread on the aviation forum about potential PLAN carrier aviation alternatives.

As much as I agreed there are changing perspection in the CCP, I still think subs will be first priorty.

It has to do with the way thing is going right now. PLAN always have the policy to build a pair of warships or subs before they mass produce them. That why they only build a pair of 52b, 52c, 51c, eventhrough these DDG are very powerful. They are still inferior to most Western new DDG, PLAN might not be fully satify. Because China has the ability to build something more powerful, I would rather think they will build something like 52D or ASW DDG before mass producing. Since we all know the shipyard is moving, it would be doubtful anything will come out before 2008/09. So it would be rather difficult to have any mass producing before 2010. I think the only major project now is the 54A, because the weapon and stucture are already testing. So PLAN will feel safe to build lot of them, since there are lot of frigates need to replace I would say there would be at least 12-20 new frigates are coming out in next few years.

Subs are complete different story. China have 2yuan, two 93 and 94(1or2), so let say the information is correct. If these subs are sucessful, I would rather think they will be mass produce. Because eventhrough these subs might not be the best, PLAN probaly couldn't build any significate better in near future. Since PLAN urgently need them to replace the old subs. I would guess they would mass produce with modification of 6-8 of ssbn, 4-6ssn and at least 12-16 yuan to replace them before next generation are coming out. All these could be done in around 2013-2015, so next generation subs will be coming out near 2015. xia and Han are just too obstacle, they sure do need something better. Six to eight 94 will give them great nuclear deterrance.

For many years PLAN only study CV, but never have intention to build one until Varyag. Since there are so many work done for Varyag, I would rather think China is seriously trying to make Varyag work. If everything go according of plan, Varyag should be operation some where in 08/09, and I think PLAN would use it as a major training ground for new CV. New CV should not be too distant away after Varyag is up and running, but I have doubt they will build lot of carriers. Because Carriers are never PLAN priorty, they do not need Carriers. One carriers cost a lot of money to build, and lot more money to maintain. Since they are more focus on Tawian, and they still consider themselve as defensive force. I would whether think they would only build copy new CV first.

Bottom line PLAN do not have any clear doctrine develop yet, they are trying to learn as much as they can and have as much options as they could. Before they decide what the future in PLAN. So Subs, Carriers and DDG would need to prove themselves effective, before the Leaders make anything concludsive and extensive decision to mass produce. Off course there are also many different factions in PLAN and Leaders, so it will be very difficult to perdict. But one thing we could guess, that is which one of them is the backbone.

What China needs.
1.ASW DDG/FFG
2.SSBN(quiet and modify)
3.SSN/SSK(quiet and modify)
4.Aegis DDG(better software&moreSAM)
5.indigenous engine
6.Carriers
7.LPH

What China decides
1.SSBN/SSN
2.SSK
3.Aegis DDG/AAWFFG
4.CV
5.ASW DDG
6.LPH
7.software/sonar/engine

One very stong indication of what PLAN consider more important, that is the secretcy of the project. We all know how much China tried to hide the j10, so what project we are lack of information now shoud be a strong indication for how important the PLAN consider it. SO SSBN and SSN are their first priorty.

I'd vote for SSBN's as first priority.

I don't believe the PRC today has effective "secondary strike" nuclear deterrance, with its limited number of ICBM's. The PLAN should follow British or French model and have at least 4 SSBN's to serve that role.

Realistcally, it's near impossible for the PRC to match either Russia or US in terms of nuclear arms. However if the PRC can field an effective secondary strike force, it'd be sufficient for nuclear deterrance. Otherwise the PRC may find itself in a position where another country could strike it with nuclear arms without fear of effective retaliation (through missile defense systems).

Whatever the political situation is today, is not indicative of the future. If nuclear arms is supposed to deter another from doing you harm, then it should be effective, otherwise it's useless and you mind as well not have it and hope being a "nuclear-free" state would somehow protect you.

A/C's are nice to look at, but expensive to maintain. The money needed to pay for an A/C group is probably better spent on satellites, guided missile boats/SSK's, and better/stealthy long-range missiles. Looking toward the future, control of space/orbit will probably become more critical than control of the seas.

Procurement should follow strategy.

There is no good reason for China to have 3, 6, or even 8 carriers unless they have a purpose for every one of them. What is the plan? A big penis contest is a very bad plan.

Can someone explain why China needs eight carriers to take Taiwan?

Can someone explain why China needs eight carriers for power projection?

Where is China going to power project to, anyways? And how urgent is this for China?

Furthermore, no one should be surprised by the speed of an aircraft carrier. I blame computer games and hollywood movies for dumbing people into thinking carriers and battleships are slow. The speed of a ship is limited to the speed of its bow wave (hydro-planing is an exception). Bigger waves move faster than smaller waves. A ship that displaces alot of water produces bigger bow waves. Putting one and one and one together and the mystery of the fast carrier disappears. There is no fancy technology involved, this is just simple physics.

Quite frankly, size matters.

However, speed does not imply agility. Carriers take time to accelerate and time to slow down and its fast turns are very wide.

Since procurement follows strategy, and China's immediate strategy is to reclaim Taiwan, it follows China immediately needs the naval power to to blockade Taiwan. The fastest and most efficient way to do this is with submarines.

Hi Fairthought

I think your tunnel vision in referencing everything towards Taiwan is creating the very difficulties you are trying to answer.

Personally I do not believe war with Taiwan figures very highly in PLAN medium to long term strategy, as it is a situation likely to resolve itself in a satisfactory and peaceful manner within the next few years.

I can think of two main reasons why the PLAN may wish to develop a number of operational Carrier Groups:

i) Protecting China's interests with its increasing overseas trade links and subsequent supply lanes.

ii) Creating an effective second Sea Front against any potential Sea Borne aggressor. This would include not only an ability to strike at any enemy Task Force from Multiple Directions, but also removing any notion of safe zone away from the Chinese Coast. In addition any enemies supply routes and en-route supply facilites would also be vulnerable to counter action action.

In short, Carriers prevent a Sea Borne adversary from concentrating their naval forces in an attack position off the East or South China Seas.

Sampanviking,

I agreed of what you said, but China do not have what it take to protect their carriers. Maybe twenty years later, but now even China builded six or eight Carriers they could not control the trade lane. And no way China could cut off supply line with enemy force. If China has conflict with the US, USA will control the sea, and these would not change in near future. Whether, China could try to contol their coastline, and subs are better job on that. If you are talking about Japan, Russia, French, india and British, I would rather think DDG, FFG and subs will do better job of carriers. China would need to build few new CV as stopover to Great carriers groups in future, but should not relay not carriers.

Hi KYli

China do not have what it take to protect their carriers. Maybe twenty years later, but now even China builded six or eight Carriers they could not control the trade lane

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Oh Absolutely, when I said at the beginning of my last post medium to long term that really means 15 to 20 years time. The forums favourite old salt B D Popeye is quite right when he talks about the time needed to train sufficient sailors in the art of effective Carrier Group Tactics and Operation etc.

In the meantime, next ten years, I think China should produce some operational small Carriers for Helicopters and VTOL planes. This is what the Americans call I beleive Amphibeous Support Ships. If China follows the Soviet designation system, perhapse these ships would be called something unobvious (not even classed as Carriers per se) so may even be under construction as we speak. Maybe Gollevainen and the other Soviet watchers would be able to shed some light on this area.

Irrespective I can see two roles for such Amphib/Small Cariers:

i) Anti Piracy operations in the South China Seas, Straits of Malaccha and the Indian Ocean and African Coast (Niger Delta region).

ii) The other - perhasp as an extension of the first would be more participation in International Peacekeeping. I know i have talked about both of these before, but as China gets richer (probably 4th biggest economy today, maybe 3rd by the end of the year and 2nd in ten years time, if current rates persist) it will come under greater pressure to pick up its share of the cost and responsibility for these duties.

If until recently some nations would have preferred Chinese forces to have stayed at home, this has probably changed recently, with the hope that future TV pictures of Chinese Peacekeepers abusing developing world detainees would firmly end the honeymoon with China and the developing world, whilst making the troops of some more developed nations look not too bad.

Sorry if that was a bitff , but I think it does help illustrate the rationale behind my assessment.

i) Anti Piracy operations in the South China Seas, Straits of Malaccha and the Indian Ocean and African Coast (Niger Delta region).

ii) The other - perhasp as an extension of the first would be more participation in International Peacekeeping. I know i have talked about both of these before, but as China gets richer (probably 4th biggest economy today, maybe 3rd by the end of the year and 2nd in ten years time, if current rates persist) it will come under greater pressure to pick up its share of the cost and responsibility for these duties.

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Thanks for the eairler comment...I am an old salt!

I think that if the PLAN had a couple of amphip groups one of the missions could be humanitarian assistance. Imangine if you will the PLAN mustering it's forces to help victims of the Dec. 26, 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. That would have been awesome for the PRC. The PRC would have been emerged as the hero nation gaining even more favor with it's Asian neighbors and the World.:china:

Anti-piracy patrols is honestly something the PLAN could do right now if it so desired. I don't think a LPH type ship is needed for this type of service.