On the "notional manned fighter production" projection front, this is my own personal quick and dirty estimate between 2026 to 2033.
The graph below is somewhat self explanatory, and divides between 4.5th gen, 5th gen and 6th gen manned aircraft. There are a few assumptions that go into it.
View attachment 170294
First is breakdown of types:
4.5th gen aircraft = J-16D, J-15T, J-15DT types
5th gen aircraft = J-20A, J-20S, J-35, J-35A
6th gen aircraft = J-36 and J-XDS
Second, is the "demand for 4.5th gen airframes". As you can see, between 2026 to 2030 there will "only" be a total of 200x 4.5th gen aircraft procured. The assumptions which underlie this are broken down as follows:
- J-15Ts will aim to be able to populate 2x STOBAR + 3x CATOBAR carriers (i.e.: the number of carriers they'll have in operation probably by 2032) making up half a carrier's total fighter airwing (other half being J-35s by footprint size). So that's 12x J-15Ts per STOBAR, 24x J-15Ts per CATOBAR, and that number is then multiplied by 1.5 to account for spares, attrition, etc. (12x2 + 24 x3) x 1.5 gets us 144 (let's call it 150) J-15Ts. I assume that currently there are 40 J-15Ts in existence, so that leaves about 100ish J-15Ts to be built between now and 2030.
- J-15DTs will be a bit more niche, but again to populate 2x STOBAR and 3x CATOBAR carriers, let's say 3x J-15DT per STOBAR and 6x J-15DT per CATOBAR, and again multiplied by 1.5, so.... (3x2 + 6x3) x 1.5 gets us 36 jets, let's call it 40 J-15DTs to be clean, and let's add another 10 J-15DTs to be able to support another carrier circa 2035 onwards in case it takes them time to develop a J-35 or navalized J-XDS derived EW jet, for a requirement of 50 airframes. If we assume they have 5x J-15DTs in existence currently, that's 45 J-15DTs to add to the 100 or so J-15Ts
- Then for J-16Ds, it's a bit more tricky, but if we assume they have a PLAAF wide requirement for 100 J-16Ds, and that if we assume they've got 40 such airframes built currently, then that's another 60 J-16Ds to add.
So in total, the "demand for 4.5th gen airframes" between 2026 and 2030 would be around 200 airframes (100x J-15T, 60x J-16D, 45x J-15DT). Now obviously the numbers can be played around with a bit (for example, if one makes the PLAAF's J-16D fleet requirement to be 150 rather than 100 total), but overall a 200+ 4.5th gen airframe requirement from now seems reasonable to me.
Third is the 5th gen build rate. One has to somewhat use their imaginations to consider the likely build rates of J-20A/S and J-35/A.
- For J-20A/S, I am assuming in 2025 their production rate was maybe 80-100 aircraft rather than the peak of 120 aircraft of 2023/2024, due to retooling to produce J-20A/S from baseline J-20. Going forwards into 2026 onwards, I think a rate of 100-120 aircraft annually could be viable, but I also expect the rate to drop a little bit approaching 2028, as CAC gets ready to build J-36 as well as more CCA/UCAVs. I expect J-20A/S production to continue into the early 2030s, but at only a few dozen per year by then, and to fully cease before 2035. Assuming currently there are 450-500 J-20 family aircraft in service, between 2026 and 2033 I could see them adding some 700-800 airframes, and then between 2033-2035 adding a further 100 before finishing its run, for a total of 1200-1400 J-20s produced across J-20, J-20A and J-20S.
- For J-35/A, I expect them in this year and next to slowly build up production (40 this year, 50 next year), but that full rate production and exploitation of the new production site in particular may not fully kick in until 2028. The exact composition of J-35 vs J-35A can be debated year by year, but I expect J-35 production to meet carrier needs as the new carriers are launched/fitted out in preparation of their service, and J-35A production to take up the rest of the slots, with long term J-35A production numbers likely exceeding that of J-35. I expect annual J-35 and J-35A production to make up an equal the no. of annual J-20A/S by late 2020s, and then outnumber J-20A/S post 2030, and for J-35/A production to continue post 2035 and fully finish a couple years after that. Between 2026-2033 I'd say maybe 760 J-35/A could be built (over half being J-35A), and between 2033 to 2038 another 400-500 could be built before ceasing. Assuming currently there are 40 J-35/A in existence, let's call it 1200-1300 J-35/A built for the PLA overall.... a similar number to the overall J-20/A/S family total.
For 6th gens, I assume that PLAAF will buy J-36 and J-XDS, and PLANAF will buy a notional navalized "J-XDSH".
J-36 and J-XDS may start initial single digit LRIP in 2030, and then slowly build up both types per year into the early 2030s.
A navalized J-XDSH of course is even more speculative; but assuming they want something ready prior to 2035, I could see them flying a navalized J-XDSH prototype before 2028/9, and share common subsystems with the land based J-XDS to expedite development, and enable service entry and production before 2034.
Needless to say, post 2033 into the late 2030s, annual 6th gen production will likely eventually climb to three digit numbers (albeit perhaps not the halcyon 220/yr the 5th gens) as J-35/A production winds down (at this point J-20A/S production would have ceased before 2035) -- but given how much more sophisticated and larger the 6th gen airframes are, that may not be a huge surprise.
Additionally, one will note that the annual fighter production per year in my depiction peaks in 2030/2031 -- that's because I expect the "excess/unused" fighter production capacity at CAC, SAC and others to be utilized for various types of UCAVs and CCAs instead, which of course is not depicted in this graph.
Not displayed is the trend of "old" 4th gen aircraft. Depending on if they seek to maintain current fleet size or greatly expand it, their retirement could start in small numbers anywhere from this year or post 2030.
In any case, the idea of building 300 aircraft per year (with large scale 4.5th gen production between now and early 2030s) seems very unlikely to me. Note, the idea of building 300 aircraft per year, would have those additional 4.5th gen aircraft
on top of what I have depicted here.
