Future PLA combat aircraft composition
- Thread starter Totoro
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I'll address your points, but I'm going to move this part and the last few posts to a different thread.
1. See above. We are all overly familiar with the options that exist here -- regardless of whether a land based J-XY/35 variant is procured by the PLAAF or whether they pursue only J-20s, either "conclusion" is cliched and going to remind you of netizen debates. That's just the way PLA watching goes for these situations.
2. Because I think that the 6th generation fighter has overwhelmingly likely already been awarded to CAC if not formally in writing, but in principle. The idea of a land based J-XY/35 entering initial production around 2025-26, can absolutely dovetail with the predictions of a 6th generation manned fighter entering service between the early 2030s and 2035.
3. I think this is where our opinions differ somewhat. IMO, the "land based J-XY/35" at this point is virtually guaranteed/expected, similar to how in 2019-2020 the J-XY/35 was virtually guaranteed/expected as a carrier based derivative of the FC-31, and similar to how in 2009-2010 the heavyweight twin engine canard delta stealth fighter from CAC was virtually guaranteed/expected as the PLAAF's first 5th gen fighter. I do agree that whether the aircraft is for the PLAAF directly is slightly less certain based on rumours at this point -- specifically, whether the land based J-XY/35 is an aircraft commissioned by the PLAAF as the prototypes for a program of record that they've committed to, or whether it's a private venture by SAC developed to PLAAF standards to try and entice them.
However, given how far along we are now with the PLAAF's overall 5th generation fighter procurement, I think we are at the right time to start thinking about the analyses of alternatives for what the future of their 5th gen fighter fleet will look like, and the decent prospect of the land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF, IMO, means it is useful for us to start thinking about the topic in terms of "what factors could cause the PLAAF to want to commit themselves to purchasing the land based J-XY/35 variant".
My point is if the J-XY is easier and quicker to produce than expanding J-20 production, and the PLAAF intends to quickly grow a large fleet of stealth fighters, then there’s a rationale for buying the fighter. I’m not sure what the PLAAF thinks. I’m just fleshing out what the basis of thinking would be to support buying J-XY derivatives, though I think that mode of thinking is at least very plausible.
wait a sec, before we start on balance of land based, 5th generation fighters, should it be PLAAF adapt another 5th generation fighters, and another step before is, there is a land based, 5th generation fighters avaible or about to, for PLAAF to buy.
But currently,
1. a land based, 5th generation fighters is yet a rumor, not 100% concret
2. PLAAF adapt another 5th generation fighters, is another rumor on top of the rumor 1, the chance get lower in probability
3. PLAAF might want to balance of land based, 5th generation fighters is another sepeculation on top of rumor 2, the chance is much much lower
So what I'm saying is, until we saw rumor 1 become a reality, it might be slightly early to discuss on rumor 2 development, and definately too early on rumor 3.
what link? Huitong's blog???
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I agree, but other arguments also come true, say J-XY is much cheaper than J-20, or J-XY is much powerful than J-20, these statements are all true, but they are based on nothing, or at least there is no way we can tell if the J-XY is easier and quicker to produce, or cheaper, or something else, especially there is no J-XY yet.
I don't understand the way that you've phrased your points.
1. By "a land based, 5th generation fighter" do you mean the "land based J-XY/35 variant"? If that is what you are referring to, then IMO, it is not merely a rumour. It is virtually guaranteed/expected, similar to how J-XY/35 was virtually guaranteed/expected in 2019-2020, and how J-20 was virtually guaranteed/expected in 2008-2010.
2. and 3. both of these points seem the exact same side of the coin to me? You are arguing whether the PLAAF is adapting the "land based J-XY/35 variant" -- but of course if the PLAAF does indeed adopt it, then naturally it means we are obliged to speculate about what force composition the "land based J-XY/35 variant" will have with the rest of the PLAAF's overall 5th generation fleet procurement (aka, how many J-20s will the PLAAF buy and how many "land based J-XY/35 variant" the PLAAF will buy).
Putting it another way -- point 1. to me is no longer a matter of contention. I think the "land based J-XY/35 variant" is coming, and it's real.
The matter of contention is whether the PLAAF had already committed to it or not as a program of record, and based on that, we are obliged to speculate about how a "land based J-XY/35 variant" for the PLAAF could play nice with the rest of the PLAAF's future fleet procurement.
Putting it another way -- the most worthwhile thing worth discussing at this point is how the "land based J-XY/35 variant" could slot into future PLAAF fighter fleet procurement, because everything else has either already been extensively discussed, or it is already too late for us to discuss.
This one
Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
The writing is on the wall for the naval fighter.
www.sinodefenceforum.com
In reference to this picture:
what?????
ok, do you have anything, support on that? the 6th gen goes to CAC? I remember Yang Wei on Zhuhai 2021 said that they have started the 6th gen conceptual design, but he, at that time was not member of CAC anymore, but top ranks in AVIC, so it could mean anything, also competation is definately after conceptual design is over, so how can you tell is awarded to CAC?
also, today is April 6th 2022, even if the landbase J-XY take maiden flight tomorrow, there is only 3 years to 2025-26, how? can a fighter jet to be initial production in 3 years? this will beat the world record twice.
The idea that the PLAAF may want a larger stealth fighter fleet more quickly, or that the J-XY may be easier and quicker to produce in larger numbers, is not based on nothing.
I really don't know what makes you difficult to understand, but I'm not agree on
Even after FC-31 is shown, it took people a while to realize PLAAF is not going to buy that, so we don't know what the land base is going to look like, and most importantly, whether PLAAF will buy it or not
I'm not agree on
So discussion, sure, but far, far from concret and settle.
from conceptual design to a specific tool, from 4.5 gen to 6 gen, from FC-31 V1.0 to 3.0 or even 4.0
I understand people like to link this to J-XY because there is a FC-31 V1.0 picture there, but ... this simply over stretch too much IMO.
For me, today is like late 2011 to early 2012, people finally the get the J-20 rush calmed and not yet see the FC-31 yet.
Even after FC-31 is shown, it took people a while to realize PLAAF is not going to buy that, so we don't know what the land base is going to look like, and most importantly, whether PLAAF will buy it or not
I'm not agree on
until
is settled, discusion on "land based J-XY/35 variant" could slot into future PLAAF is pretty much a speculation, and balance the 5th gen figher number is a speculation on top of a speculation.
So discussion, sure, but far, far from concret and settle.
i see your point... but this is a 601 research institute researcher doing a introduction to himself, and 'in charge of airforce and navy new aircraft platform R&D' could really means a lot of thing...This one
In reference to this picture:Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
The writing is on the wall for the naval fighter.www.sinodefenceforum.com
from conceptual design to a specific tool, from 4.5 gen to 6 gen, from FC-31 V1.0 to 3.0 or even 4.0
I understand people like to link this to J-XY because there is a FC-31 V1.0 picture there, but ... this simply over stretch too much IMO.
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yes, that's why there is also rumor that J-10 production will all move to Guizhou and Changdu only is going produce J-20 in the future...
at least this one does not including a new plane and don't conflict the timeframe of possible 6th gen fighter development...