Future PLA combat aircraft composition

A.Man said:

Just for Your Information: An Estimate of the Chinese Fighter Jets

J-11A/Su-27SK: 120;
Su-27UBK: 20;
J-11B: 158;
J-11BS: 107;
Su-30MKK/Su-30MK2: 100 (76+24);
Su-35: 24;
J-10A: 238;
J-10B: 58;
J-10C: 60;
J-10S: 106;
J-16: 210;
J-15: 80;
JH7/JH-7: 280;
J-20: 105.

Total: 1866 (Some Loses not Excluded)

Click to expand...

A.Man said:

Just for Your Information: An Estimate of the Chinese Fighter Jets

J-11A/Su-27SK: 120;
Su-27UBK: 20;
J-11B: 158;
J-11BS: 107;
Su-30MKK/Su-30MK2: 100 (76+24);
Su-35: 24;
J-10A: 238;
J-10B: 58;
J-10C: 60;
J-10S: 106;
J-16: 210;
J-15: 80;
JH7/JH-7: 280;
J-20: 105.

Total: 1866 (Some Loses not Excluded)

Click to expand...

antiterror13 said:

Wondering what the PLAAF would do to original old SU-27K/J-11A ... is the number really 120 ? whether they would get significant upgrades ? or just leave it until end life ?

Click to expand...

A.Man said:

Just for Your Information: An Estimate of the Chinese Fighter Jets

J-11A/Su-27SK: 120;
Su-27UBK: 20;
J-11B: 158;
J-11BS: 107;
Su-30MKK/Su-30MK2: 100 (76+24);
Su-35: 24;
J-10A: 238;
J-10B: 58;
J-10C: 60;
J-10S: 106;
J-16: 210;
J-15: 80;
JH7/JH-7: 280;
J-20: 105.

Total: 1866 (Some Loses not Excluded)

Click to expand...

A.Man said:

Sorry, my bad, J-10C should be 260.

Click to expand...

Maikeru said:

Do you have an estimate J7, J8 and H6 variants in service?

Click to expand...

stannislas said:

you are right, but that's not what I'm trying to say. Far as I can record, the rumor followed a clear logic in Chinese community:

PLA is going to buy FC-31 ---> PLA is going to buy a cheaper 5th gen fighter because J-20 is too expensive ---> that 5th gen fighter must by SAC FC-31 (V1.0->2.0->3.0->.....)

This is more like an extention battlefield for fanboys fighting on their preference over SAC vs CAC, and "PLAAF will buy SAC made 5th gen fighter adapted", or "medium weight fighter is a good supplement for J-20 fleet" are merely good arguments to support their wishful thinking.


the Chinese there said: 'project 21, interesting' and it could be a lot of things, including landbase J-31/XY, for sure, but it could also mean anything, like ARJ21 also has 21 in its name. So this is too far to jump to 'PLAAF to buy landbase J-31/XY' or even to buy a significant number.


Oh, no, PLAAF to buy J-35/XY has alway make sense to me, or least there are always some tiny little chances for that to happen. In fact PLAAF has history of bought aircrafts it really don't want (certain J-7 and J-8) and bought something it later proven useful by PLANAF (JH-7), so of course, there is a chance for PLAAF to buy some J-35/XY in the future.

But, I consider that chance as very slim and far from getting any conclusion, or too much speculation over the latest rumors in the pass few years.
1. it remind me too much of netizen fight story over FC-31, carrier based 5th fighter, and even J-20 on and off
2. logically, as you mentioned, even if landbase J-35/XY project goes smoothly and start mass production in late 20s or early 30s, why can't China invest more on 6th gen fighter, which could out in 2030~2035? and most of all, what happened if SAC win the 6th gen fighter procument??? SAC is going to produce two very new 5th gen and 6th gen fighter at the same time from mid 2030s?
in fact, at this stage, with 6th gen fighter competation in few years, shouldn't SAC focus more and 6th gen fighter instead of a landbase J-35/XY, after all, it took FC-31 almost 10 years to get the oppertunity after SAC lost the competation.
3. none of current rumors are 'straightforward' enough, what I mean is, given 'landbase J-35/XY' is still a rumor and not 100% concret, the rumor of 'PLAAF to buy landbase J-35/XY' or even 'to buy a lot landbase J-35/XY' just another step ahead. There is also a very good chance that after 'landbase J-35/XY', PLAAF still find no interest, and it's a practical a FC-31 V4.0 or somthing like that, could be SAC's F-18 to CF-188

So, of course, it's make sense for PLAAF to buy J-35/XY, but at this stage, it's too early to discuss what kind of impact will it make to PLAAF, just like discussion over what if PLAAF bought FC-31 V1.0 or V2.0

Click to expand...

A.Man said:

There are 6 Brigades equipped with J-7's, plus few in Chongming with J-8's: Mudanjiang, Bikeqi, Dandong, Yanqing, Nanning, Dali (Yunxiang). All J-7s will be phased out by 2025. It is likely that Mudanjiang will receive J-16; Bikeqi, J11B/BS; Dandong, J-10C; Yanqing, J-10C; Nanning, J-11B/BS or Su-MKK; Dali, J-10A. Chongming will receive J-16's.

Click to expand...

ALWAYS WITHOUT

latenlazy said:

The primary reason to adopt a FC-31/J-XY derivative for the PLAAF is if they want to burnish their stealth fighter numbers quicker and they can churn out FC-31/J-XYs faster than they can churn out J-20s. It *sounds* like SAC may have designed the FC-31/J-XY to be easily and quickly producible. Whether they would choose to go this route instead of simply expanding J-20 production is the key question imo. Even if a 6th generation fighter were ready by the 2030s it may not fit production needs if the PLAAF wants to shift to a very large fleet of stealth fighters.

Click to expand...

stannislas said:

there are a lot of arguments like these to support PLAAF to buy FC-31/J-XY, some non sense like 'PLA can't let SAC starve to death, so they must buy steath fighter from SAC to keep them alive and stay competitive to CAC' even poped out during the debate.

So yes, that's one of the argument, and from certain angle that's true, but does that mean there will be J-35/XY in landbase, or will PLAAF buy it? and most importantly, does PLAAF also think this way? not necessarily, right?

Click to expand...