Future PLA combat aircraft composition

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zyun8288

Junior Member
Gloire_bb said:
Why?
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Because J20 and J31/35 combo have covered the full spectrum of China’s 5th gen fighter requirements. A 3rd one will hardly be able to provide anything new while incurring significant expense. This would be the same fate for FC31, had CAC won.

BTW, When you say US operates 4 types of 5th gen fighters, do you count f35 a, b and c?
And you know FC31’s designer has been counting on 4 types as well, right? She is not leaving any room to CAC’s design.
 
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O

ougoah

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Gloire_bb said:
Why?
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Because certainly at some point there is diminishing returns and from observation on most airforces that point is usually at two fighters of the same generation. Then you have air forces like Malaysia's and India's (and others) that are a hodge-podge mix resulting from a combination of poor management, poor leadership, and corruption/grifting where you end up with three of four platforms of the same generation with a lot of overlapping capabilities.

It costs a lot in logistics. To support many types of engines, airframes, avionics, and training up pilots and support crew.

If they have distinct functions and capabilities then it is understandable. Or if a platform serves as a cheaper and more numerous fighter that offers the airforce a pair of eyes in the sky they need presence in and deliver weapons from a capable enough platform. Basically you don't see any competent airforce require more than one type of fighter for a particular role.

What does a PLAAF J-35 (or whatever) offer over a J-20 except for potentially lower acquisition and maintenance costs? Even then it's questionable if it would be the case since it is twin engined as well. Now consider a third 5th gen air superiority fighter. It is simply unthinkable unless it offers something of total novelty and capability/utility the other one or two cannot deliver at all. At some point the extra training, production lines, and support lines is just not worth it especially when it doesn't offer anything new or extra. If it does, then that's the platform to make and buy rather than the platform that doesn't. I can see a low end 5th gen if J-20 is complex and expensive (slow to make). But three 5th gens is simply absurd. Would PLAAF rather 500 units of J-20s in PLAAF or 200 J-20s, 100 J-35, and 100 J-xyz if expensive or 300 J-xyz if cheap.

If another single engined 5th gen is available and purchased by PLAAF because of cost savings and more of these types can be built to fill positions and take up presence, then why bother with J-35? If no J-35 in PLAAF then that's just two 5th gens which isn't three. If it has a certain ability that is useful, can the J-20 or J-35 not fulfill? If not, why bother with J-20 and J-35? Surely one of those is pointless for PLAAF and since J-20's been in service for years already, then no J-35 and again only two.
 
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Gloire_bb

Gloire_bb

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zyun8288 said:
Because J20 and J31/35 combo have covered the full spectrum of China’s 5th gen fighter requirements. A 3rd one will hardly be able to provide anything new. This would be the same fate for FC31, had CAC won.
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Spectrum:
J-20 is a heavy, 35t class, 2 engine air superiority/multirole fighter. Check.
J-XY, as of now, is heavy, 30t class, 2 engine naval multirole fighter. Check.
J-XY‘ - notional heavy, 30t class(we don't know!), 2 engine PLA multirole(?) fighter.

I.e. we can summarize it as a (1)35t heavy stealth platform and (2)30t heavy stealth platform. No, 30t aircraft ain't medium.
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PLAAF also operates, as of 2020s (tactical manned only):

J-7 family fighters - 10t class, 1 engine day fighter. Outdated. Being replaced by J-10.
J-8 family interceptors - 20t class, 2 engine air superiority/interceptor. Outdated. To be gradually replaced by J-20.
JH-7 fighter bombers - heavy, 30t class, 2 engine strike fighter. In service; may indeed be a nice niche to be replaced by J-XY(PLA)
J-10 family fighters - 20t class, 1 engine air superiority/multirole fighter. In active production.
J-11 family fighters(+su-27/30/35) - heavy, 35t class, 2 engine air superiority fighter. In active production. To be partially displaced by J-16/20?
J-16 family multirole fighters - heavy, 35t class, 2 engine multirole fighter/support platform. In active prodiction.

i.e. we can grossly summarize platforms (summing up outdated and partially replaced) as follows:

-light, single engine, payloads-centric, multirole (niche 1).
-heavy, twin engine, stealth, air superiority (niche 2)
-heavy, twin engine, payloads-centric, multirole (niche 3)
-heavy, twin engine, strike (niche 4).

Niche 1 is a child of necessity, a cost-saving measure - because it does the same things the others do - but worse. Or, in other way - if done right, and producer is very careful with costs control - it in one platform will do 4/5 jobs of others for 2/3 the price of any of them, i.e. will allow for significantly more operational airframes for a given level of spending. J-XY(PLA) flatly doesn't match this description.
Niche 4 is really the only one where J-XY fits for the PLAAF. And it's honestly the most questionable one - precisely because niche 2 and 3 prima facie can do the very same job. And probably will need to anyways - is definitely a very capable outsized payloads carrier - this isn't capability one can skip.
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PLANAF will operate, as of 2020s:

J-15 family fighters - heavy, 35t class, 2 engine naval multirole fighter. In active production.
J-XY family fighters - heavy, 30t class, 2 engine stealth naval multirole fighter. In development.

Can be summed up as:

-heavy, twin engine, payloads-centric, multirole (niche 1)
-heavy, twin engine, stealth, multirole (niche 2)

Naval a/c work in a completely different way compared to land ones: there is really no place for cost-saving measures on the modern decks, as cost-saving are price-optimized, but space-inefficient. This is why we are left flatly with one "payloads" platform, and one stealth one.
 
Deino

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Since the discussion on the last few pages in the FC-31 thread are circulating more around an eventual - or desired - single engined stealth fighter that at least at the moment it is more a what-if than a real project, I moved all posts into this thread.

Please continue this not really FC-31-related discussion here!
 
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gelgoog

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Half of the cost of developing a new fighter is developing the engine. If we assume the PLA will have access to the WS-10, WS-15, WS-19 engines for their current and future aircraft development then we can sketch which are the likely aircraft developments.

Like @Gloire_bb said the J-7 is being replaced by the J-10 and the J-8 was replaced by the J-11. In my opinion the JH-7 is going to be replaced by the J-16 long term. the J-16 has all the required features with increased payload and is more versatile since it can defend itself in case of air combat better. In turn we should expect the J-20 to partially replace the J-11 and the J-XY to complement if not outright replace the J-15. I do not think in the long term keeping the J-15 in the new CATOBAR carriers will make sense since the aircraft weight is so similar to begin with.

I also think one thing we can grok with the way the FC-31 program went through and the rumours of the US New Century series program development is that the cost for developing a new aircraft has gone down a lot with modern 3D modelling and simulation plus 3D printing and other techniques. Thus I expect the number of airframe types in current use to increase in the future. The FC-31 prototypes had major changes in between different versions and they were produced in record time each. I would say about two years between prototypes worst case. So contrary to what you may assume developing another single engine aircraft might not cost all that much and the cost reductions in production will make this work economically. China will need to start replacing the J-10 towards the end of this decade and a single engine WS-15 fighter is what I think makes the most sense as a replacement not the FC-31.

In the case of countries like France, or indeed even Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union, focusing on a single twin engine fighter type was optimal since it meant you didn't need to invest more development costs and maximized the use of existing production facilities. But those countries produced around 200 airframes in that time. This is not what China requires. China requires 600-800 airframes of a low end type alone. Making all these twin engine types is not cost effective.

Now I have no doubt China is also developing a 6th gen but that is likely still on the backburner with a skeleton crew since the engine is quite likely still in the material and part prototype stage. I doubt they are anywhere near making a full working engine. Without the engine the fighter is likely also delayed and will likely only show up in the middle of the next decade. In case NGAD does become a thing it is likely China might make an interim design with twin upgraded WS-15 engines still in this decade but I doubt it will be a true 6th gen.

There is also a possibility China might just replace part of the existing fleet with 5th gen aircraft and keep most of their more recent Flanker and J-10 types. If that is the case then J-XY introduction in the PLAAF might make sense. But given the existance of large numbers of the F-35 single engine fighters and now the Russia Su-75 project I doubt a single engine 5th gen fighter won't materialize.
 
Blitzo

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Gloire_bb said:
I think this is a stretch to be honest.
- Smaller aircraft is not inherently cheaper than larger one (though it obviously has all the reasons to be cheaper). Or the difference may( or may not be) big enough. J-XY is probably a 30t-class aircraft, i.e. it's actually very close to J-20 in the first place.
- WS-19 isn't less valuable than WS-15 - both are same-generation engines and both use 2. More than that - resources spent on its production are resources not spent on WS-15, and resources set up on a second - parallel - support line are resources not spent on WS-15.
-J-XY belongs to roughly the same generation of aircraft.
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- No one said a smaller aircraft is inherently cheaper than a larger one (e.g.: a smaller aircraft with a limited production run and poor support can be more expensive to operate than a larger aircraft with an extensive production run and excellent support) -- I'm saying specifically that I expect J-XY to be more affordable to operate than J-20 partly because the J-XY is a smaller twin engine fighter compared to J-20 which is the larger twin engine fighter of the same generation. I gave an example of a smaller twin engine fighter to a larger twin engine fighter (both of the same generation) to demonstrate the point.
- WS-19 is less valuable than WS-15, because it is a smaller engine, using smaller blades, and will almost certainly be easier to produce and scale upwards, furthermore. Furthermore, the value of WS-19 isn't only because it is smaller, but rather it is because it isn't WS-15. The whole point of this argument is that WS-15 is a finite resource that they almost certainly will not be able to scale up to meet the demands of J-20 production, 6th gen production, and a SEFA, all while considering the additional delays that using one lone WS-15 on a SEFA will entail based on the WS-10 experience of being used on a single engine fighter.
- J-XY will likely enter LRIP 10 years after J-20 entered LRIP. While both are 5th generation aircraft, the extent of advancements in terms of maintainability, materials, affordability, certainly will not be the same.



Gloire_bb said:
But not buying them is cheaper still? As of now we don't know of any set of tasks that J-XY can do from land which J-20 can not.
Simple problem is that "it's already here" is sufficient motivation to take a look at aircraft, but it is not sufficient motivation to take it as your second fighter(potentially - core of the airforce structure). You spend more (a whole lot, in fact) money in the first place - by adding a second type and adapting it to your requirements. And you may save some later on.
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So, we've discussed this overall topic of a J-XY land based variant vs SEFA vs more J-20s in the past, in this same thread earlier this year

Future PLA combat aircraft composition

And yes, what you described -- a "worse" J-20, with commonality with the navy, and a larger production run, more maintainable stealth, more advanced production method -- sounds like a hell of an aircraft to me, especially as such an aircraft would not need the additional development time needed...
www.sinodefenceforum.com

I am coming from this entirely from the point of view that the PLAAF want a land based medium weight 5th generation fighter that is lighter than J-20, which by virtue of its smaller size combined with using more modern production technologies and stealth technologies to make it more affordable to procure and operate than J-20.




Gloire_bb said:
It's simply to point out that it is not the end of the story. J-XY emergence may or may not contradict appearance of another project. Chengdu study may or may not be serious. And so on.
p.s. my guess is CAC rumor is a potential VTOL project. But it's just that - a guess.
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Yes PLA watching is all about "what might or might be true".
But at the same time, we have to make some assessments as to "how likely" XYZ outcome is, at any given point in time.

At this point in time, as of late 2021, we have no credible rumours of a SEFA under development.



Gloire_bb said:
It depends on what is meant by "Medium weight 5th generation aircraft".
If Hi-Lo mix with J-20 - honestly speaking, I currently don't see any reason at all. We know too little about the aircraft, but it's basically far too similar to bring any added value, yet far too different from a supply point of view.
Niche capability (say, replacing JH-7) for a couple of hundred aircraft, preferably operating somewhere together with PLANAF? Makes some sense, but again - only some.

p.s. also, I don't really think that there is a need for light air force aircraft to emerge anytime soon in the first place. If we take European canards as a reference(which belong to the same subgeneration as J-10) - they are only meant to be replaced in the mid-late 2030s, and won't take their first flight for some years to come.
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When I say "medium weight 5th generation aircraft" I am talking about an aircraft with an MTOW of 30 tons (lighter than a heavy weight like J-20, F-22, and Su-57 with MTOWs of 35-40 tons).

Let's put it this way -- I believe the PLAAF has a requirement for a certain number of manned, land based 5th generation aircraft, that will be procured up to eventually in the four digits, let's say "XYXY number" by the time they eventually cease production of 5th generation aircraft.

The question therefore becomes one of whether all of the "XYXY number" of 5th generation land based aircraft can be reasonably fulfilled by only buying J-20s, or whether it would be made up of a combination of J-20s and a new medium weight 5th gen.

My belief is that meeting "XYXY number" of 5th generation aircraft, can realistically only be fulfilled by a combination of J-20s and medium weight 5th gen.

So the natural question therefore becomes one of whether that medium weight 5th gen will be a SEFA, or a twin engine aircraft (of which the overwhelming most likely candidate is the land based J-XY that has been rumoured for a while).
 
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Blitzo

Blitzo

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Gloire_bb said:
Why?
US de facto operates 4, for example, and the chance is high is going to develop >2 in the coming decade.
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Three of those four 5th generation aircraft that the US operates, are variants of the same aircraft with massive overlap in R&D, production, subsystems, logistics, and training (the F-35 family, of variants A, B and C).
The US only operates two distinct 5th generation fighter types, the F-22 and the F-35 family.

With the J-20 family (single seat J-20, twin seat J-20, and a WS-15 J-20 variant), the navalized J-XY, and a notional SEFA, the PLA would be operating three distinct 5th generation fighter types, all with their own R&D, production, subsystems, logistics and training.
 
Blitzo

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My view of various PLAAF fighter types with [production status/expected production end] -- and service/retirement status


- J-7 family [not in production] -- to be fully retired around 2025, replaced by J-10 family aircraft.

- J-8 family [not in production] -- all combat variants to be fully retired around 2025, replaced by J-10 and/or Flanker (J-11 or J-16) family aircraft.

- JH-7 family [not in production] -- to remain in service until late 2020s/early 2030s, to be partly replaced by a combination of J-16 and land based medium weight 5th gen.

- J-10 family [J-10C in active production with overall J-10 production to end sometime after 2025] -- J-10B/C variants to remain in service until 2040s, while younger J-10As from mid/late 2020s will be gradually replaced by a combination of land based medium weight 5th gen, as well as supplemented by UCAVs/loyal wingmen.

- J-11 family and imported Russian Flankers [not in production] -- J-11B and Su-35 will remain in service until early 2030s with MLUs, while older Su-27SKs, J-11As and Su-30s will be replaced by a combination of J-20, J-16 family and land based medium weight 5th gen.

- J-16 family [J-16 in active production with standard J-16 production to end around 2025 and J-16D production to continue until late 2020s] -- to remain in service into 2040s.

- J-20 family [J-20 in active production, with variants likely to remain in production until early 2030s] -- to remain in service until after 2040s.

Note, all of the above is stated with consideration that the total number of land based fighter aircraft will expand -- that is to say, the older fighter types (like J-7, J-8) will be wholly replaced by current/newer 4/4.5th gen aircraft (like J-10s, Flankers), while those current/newer 4/4.5th gen aircraft will be replaced by 5th gens (J-20 and land based medium weight 5th gen) AND augmented by significant number of land based UCAVs/loyal wingmen aircraft.


So, in terms of active production of land based aircraft, my vision is that of the current in production primary combat aircraft types:
- J-10C (J-10s in general, no future new build J-10s) -- production to end around 2025. Primary slot to replace all J-7 family, partly J-8 family.
- J-16 (not including J-16D, J-15 or J-15D) -- production to end around 2025. Primary slot to replace partly JH-7, partly J-8 family.
- J-20 (various variants including current single seater, J-20S, WS-15 equipped J-20, and any others) -- production to continue and to expand going into late 2020s and continuing until early 2030s. Primary slot to replace bulk of J-11 family and imported Russian Flankers.

And of the land based fighter aircraft that have yet to enter production but which I expect so in the near future:
- land based medium weight 5th gen -- production to begin around 2025, and to continue to late 2030s. Primary slot to replace a combination of J-10 family (initially J-10As, before progressing to older J-10B/Cs), and J-11/imported Russian Flanker family, and JH-7 family.
- UCAVs/loyal wingmen aircraft -- unknown, but expected for various types to enter service in limited numbers around 2025, with gradual if not significant expansion by late 2020s and to continue into future. Primary slot to augment all of the above.


In terms of manned land based aircraft, from the current family of 6 (or 7 if we count the J-11/imported Flankers and J-16 as two families) types of J-7, J-8, JH-7, J-10, J-11/imported Flankers, J-16, J-20....

.... to a late 2020s composition of 4 (or 5) types of: J-10 family, J-11B (and token Su-35 force), J-16, J-20, land based medium 5th gen.
 
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G

GTI

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Bltizo said:
My view of various PLAAF fighter types with [production status/expected production end] -- and service/retirement status


- J-7 family [not in production] -- to be fully retired around 2025, replaced by J-10 family aircraft.

- J-8 family [not in production] -- all combat variants to be fully retired around 2025, replaced by J-10 and/or Flanker (J-11 or J-16) family aircraft.

- JH-7 family [not in production] -- to remain in service until late 2020s/early 2030s, to be partly replaced by a combination of J-16 and land based medium weight 5th gen.

- J-10 family [J-10C in active production with overall J-10 production to end sometime after 2025] -- J-10B/C variants to remain in service until 2040s, while younger J-10As from mid/late 2020s will be gradually replaced by a combination of land based medium weight 5th gen, as well as supplemented by UCAVs/loyal wingmen.

- J-11 family and imported Russian Flankers [not in production] -- J-11B and Su-35 will remain in service until early 2030s with MLUs, while older Su-27SKs, J-11As and Su-30s will be replaced by a combination of J-20, J-16 family and land based medium weight 5th gen.

- J-16 family [J-16 in active production with standard J-16 production to end around 2025 and J-16D production to continue until late 2020s] -- to remain in service into 2040s.

- J-20 family [J-20 in active production, with variants likely to remain in production until early 2030s] -- to remain in service until after 2040s.

Note, all of the above is stated with consideration that the total number of land based fighter aircraft will expand -- that is to say, the older fighter types (like J-7, J-8) will be wholly replaced by current/newer 4/4.5th gen aircraft (like J-10s, Flankers), while those current/newer 4/4.5th gen aircraft will be replaced by 5th gens (J-20 and land based medium weight 5th gen) AND augmented by significant number of land based UCAVs/loyal wingmen aircraft.


So, in terms of active production of land based aircraft, my vision is that of the current in production primary combat aircraft types:
- J-10C (J-10s in general, no future new build J-10s) -- production to end around 2025. Primary slot to replace all J-7 family, partly J-8 family.
- J-16 (not including J-16D, J-15 or J-15D) -- production to end around 2025. Primary slot to replace partly JH-7, partly J-8 family.
- J-20 (various variants including current single seater, J-20S, WS-15 equipped J-20, and any others) -- production to continue and to expand going into late 2020s and continuing until early 2030s. Primary slot to replace bulk of J-11 family and imported Russian Flankers.

And of the land based fighter aircraft that have yet to enter production but which I expect so in the near future:
- land based medium weight 5th gen -- production to begin around 2025, and to continue to late 2030s. Primary slot to replace a combination of J-10 family (initially J-10As, before progressing to older J-10B/Cs), and J-11/imported Russian Flanker family, and JH-7 family.
- UCAVs/loyal wingmen aircraft -- unknown, but expected for various types to enter service in limited numbers around 2025, with gradual if not significant expansion by late 2020s and to continue into future. Primary slot to augment all of the above.


In terms of manned land based aircraft, from the current family of 6 (or 7 if we count the J-11/imported Flankers and J-16 as two families) types of J-7, J-8, JH-7, J-10, J-11/imported Flankers, J-16, J-20....

.... to a late 2020s composition of 4 (or 5) types of: J-10 family, J-11B (and token Su-35 force), J-16, J-20, land based medium 5th gen.
Click to expand...
I thought Huitong was reporting that J-11D is now in production?
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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GTI said:
I thought Huitong was reporting that J-11D is now in production?
Click to expand...

Until we have pictures of it, I hold that rumour in significant doubt because the rationale for producing J-11D in the context of known PLA force structure right now just isn't really there.
 
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