Defence analysts said the major barriers include US restrictions on advanced technology, Ukraine-related sanctions that may disrupt Russia’s supply of key weapon components and Beijing’s own distrust of the private sector – a key driving force for innovation elsewhere.
So they keep saying yet Russia keeps increasing their weapons production. It was the civilian sector which was affected by the current sanctions. For example the automotive and civilian airliner sectors.
The military sector exploded in growth with the war. For example Zala is now opening up another two factories to make the Lancet. Almaz-Antey recently opened up a gargantuan new facility to make air defense systems. A 93742 sq meters facility built from the ground up in 265 days.
The Russian military itself has been sanctioned since 2014. That was when the major blow happened which stopped the Russian surface naval construction program, Yak-130 construction, and delayed other projects. The major impact was due to not being able to source components from Ukraine anymore. Not "Western" components. But now Russia can build its own naval gas turbines, Yak-130 engines, R-77-1 missiles, miscellaneous Flanker avionics, and everything they need which used to be imported from Ukraine. In like 2018 they had finished developing the replacements and they have been putting them in serial production for like 3 years at this point.
Washington has already announced a series of measures that could hinder the PLA’s efforts to develop advanced weapons. These include export controls imposed last year that restrict China’s access to US chips and equipment used in supercomputing systems that could play a key role in developing nuclear weapons and other military technology.
This is a pretty much retarded argument because transistors stopped going down in price when 28nm came out. SRAM density stopped increasing at the 5nm node. Especially on something like a supercomputer, where space and energy aren't much of an issue, China can just use as many older generation processors as they want and have roughly same performance and cost per transistor.
“China will have to adapt by incorporating the chips that it has available. The result could be an increase in the gap between the quality and sophistication of US weapons and equipment compared to China,” said Heath.
The most compute intensive application being claimed is AI learning. But AI learning won't be done at the edge, it will be done in centralized compute farms, for AI edge applications current Chinese fabrication capabilities are more than enough.
Heath said while China has successfully incorporated Western technology into its military, the sanctions will restrict private firms’ access to advanced technology in the US.
This is pretty much bollocks. The US is just aiming to kneecap the Chinese economy as a competitor, like they did to Japan in the 1990s after the Japanese dethroned US semis in the 1980s, with forced import quotas for US semis into Japan.
Western sanctions on Russian arms companies imposed in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last year could prove a further headache for China, which was the world’s fifth largest importer of weapons last year.
Like I said, there will be little impact, the Soviets managed to keep rough parity in weapons systems with the US until the collapse of the Soviet Union and back then they did not have the world's second largest economy as a trade partner, being sanctioned to hell and back.
And China can make its own technology at this point. They stopped being reliant on Russian weapon systems.
China has struggled to build a suitable engine for its most advanced fighter, the J-20.
They certainly chose the wrong time to say something like this with the WS-15 entering service.
About 83 per cent of China’s imported weapons between 2018-2022 came from Russia, mostly consisting of helicopters and aircraft engines, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The aircraft engines have mostly been replaced with Chinese equivalents. As for helicopter engines it will be a matter of time until they are replaced. What they also fail to tell is how minute China's imports of weapons are.
However, it is still struggling to produce engines that will allow it to maximise its planes’ capacity and even the J-20 – conceived of as a rival to the US F-22 – has been forced to use older Russian AL-31 engines and Chinese WS-10Cs – neither of which provides sufficient thrust.
Still has better thrust-to-weight than the F-35. I thought US fanboys claimed that aircraft kinematic performance did not matter and that it was all about stealth and sensors. Oh well.
Chinese engineers have been trying to reverse engineer Russian technology to build a suitable engine for the stealth fighter, but its WS-15 engine programme has been hit by a series of setbacks and delays and is still not ready to start mass production.
“In the field of … fighter engines, [it is] difficult to master technologies that few countries have succeeded in,” said Heath. “China is still learning to master these technologies and thus will likely continue to study and try to learn from Russia.”
Such bollocks. You might accept this kind of analysis a decade ago but not now.
“[China] still appears to rely on some components from Russia and therefore there might be some delays in deliveries or they might not be able to get as much as they had before,” said Tigkos.
Like what? I think the worst thing was the supplies from Ukraine of Hongdu L-15 engines. Now that the factory got bombed.
The US accounts for 40 per cent of global arms exports and Tigkos said the US is a leader in the sector because of substantial investment and a large market that attracts private companies.
“It’s innovation. It’s changing in thinking [that] is also developing new capabilities, driving the adoption of new technologies into different applications, and therefore delivering value [to the Pentagon],” said Tigkos.
It is also massively bloated and a massive money pit of failed programs and overly expensive systems.
In the meantime, the United States is investing heavily in new technology in the hope of staying ahead of China. The US defence department is investing US$9 billion in its Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability project, with contractors that include some of the country’s leading tech firms such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle.
Another money pit.
It is also spending US$1.7 billion this year on the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme, and seeking US$2.3 billion in next year’s budget, to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet to replace Lockheed Martin’s F-22 – a project Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said was designed to “to sustain [the US] military advantage over China”.
NGAD is still vaporware. Because they didn't build enough F-22s and didn't upgrade the ones they built properly, now they plan to release NGAD to fix this. Had the F-22 been exported to the countries that wanted to buy them, like Japan, or Australia, maybe the production line of the F-22 wouldn't have been shut down prematurely and the US would have more options.
In contrast, little is known about China’s plans for a sixth generation fighter, and it has released only brief video clips that provided little solid information.
I am fairly sure China is developing both the engine and aircraft basic technology for 6th gen already. Ever thought what the designers at Chengdu are doing? They probably started working on the J-20 design after the J-10 was done. What are they working on now? Just making the dual seater won't use that many engineers. So what are the other engineers working on? Likely the 6th gen.
“China can be innovative, but that flourishing of innovation occurred in a period of relative political openness. Now that the period of opening was ending, would it also mean the end of Chinese innovation? The general consensus was yes.”
This is just typical bullshit. Cultist fervor. Lots of closed systems can innovate just as well as long as enough resources are available and dedicated to improvement. The Soviets proved that when they launched Sputnik.