It doesn’t even belong to the category of “conspiracy theories”,he was most likely killed, although I do not personally believe it was a SAM that got him, SA-75/HQ-2 are extremely hard to maneuver and the range/hit rate isn’t that good, this mission requires 100% success .The Lin Biao one got a laugh out of me.
Speaking of which, even since I first heard about Lin Biao there's always been conspiracy theory that his plane didn't crash from running out of fuel or mechanical issue but was deliberately shot down. Has there been any new evidence that emerged in the last two decades that points at this direction or does it remain conspiracy theory?
most kills by SA-75&HQ-2 was done by ambush , thanks to the KMT pilots’ laziness , there were many spots that an ambush could be done, not in this case, CCP knew he was going to defect to the USSR, but the actual route was not predictable ( at a SA-75 range level)
I tend to believe it was a pre-positioned bomb or a jet fighter.