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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
A Look at What Countries Are Contributing to Mali
FRANCE

France's resources in what they call Operation Serval include:

— 800 troops are now in place in Mali. This number is forecast to "gradually" increase to 2,500, according to a government official, who insisted on anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the press.
So, in addition to the 2,500 troops the French intend...it appears that about 3,300 more are committed from six other nations...and I do not see any other combat troops from the EU.

So, a total of 5,800 troops is it? IMHO, it will not be enough to win. Not nearly enough.

They may be able to protect the capitol with that number and with the French combat aircraft.

They could easily be either bogged down, suffer severe losses, or have to commit a lot more troops to be able to defeat and oust Al Quida and its sympathizers their.
 

navyreco

Senior Member
So, a total of 5,800 troops is it? IMHO, it will not be enough to win. Not nearly enough.
:) you are right... and French MOD announced yesterday that 4,000 French troops will be sent (instead of 2,500).

Still not enough, but the French want some (European) countries to contribute.

Relatively speaking, the Belgians are contributing the most, with 2 C130 and 2 Medevac helicopters forward deployed in a town north of the capital Bamako. They are under French Command.

Following the events in Algeria, Cameron announced UK will be increasing its contribution to the French (but still not combat troops)
 

Scratch

Captain
Frankly, I don't think that a large contingent of combat troops is necessary, or even the best solution. For one reason that only provides a larger, and foremost largely visible target for all kinds of radicalist troops looking for a piece of the publicity pie. The country is also mainly a wide and flat desert where it is easier to locate and then strike those hostiles with fewer assets. And those groups have a lot less sympathy with the local populace. So some kind of a semi-hidden campaign, just driving these forces from important locations into the desert does look like a viable option to me for the time being.
Already, without many assets in place the french and malian forces are making significant progress.
Although I, too, am wondering why those convoys of fighters can escape rather untouched. But maybe that's a political caveat, people don't want to explain pictures of many dead bodies lying in the desert.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Frankly, I don't think that a large contingent of combat troops is necessary, or even the best solution. For one reason that only provides a larger, and foremost largely visible target for all kinds of radicalist troops looking for a piece of the publicity pie.

I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely no sense and flies in the face of all reason and past experience. Did the American 'surge' in Iraq in involve sending in more or fewer troops? Never in the history of warfare has any general ever had too many troops to command.

Just because the French are sending in a small force does not exempt them from the realities of warfare. Those troops will need bases or operation and logistical support and those bases and supply convoys will need protection, and that takes men, plain and simple. Those bases and convoys are targets not matter what the French do, and the best way to counter that is by having adequate manpower to adequately protect them.


The country is also mainly a wide and flat desert where it is easier to locate and then strike those hostiles with fewer assets.

That might be true if we are taking about large armored formations, but since the rebels don't seem to have a hell of a lot of those, it can get difficult and tedious finding and identifying rebels forces and distinguishing them from regular civilian traffic, especially once the rebels start making an active effort to not stand out to eyes in the air.

And those groups have a lot less sympathy with the local populace.

True enough, which is probably one of the main factors behind France's decision to go in.

So some kind of a semi-hidden campaign, just driving these forces from important locations into the desert does look like a viable option to me for the time being.

That's only a viable option if you were the rebels or looking to prolong the conflict indefinitely.

Already, without many assets in place the french and malian forces are making significant progress.

It still remains to be seen just how much progress the French and Malian government forces are making and how much of is the rebels drawing them on.

Although I, too, am wondering why those convoys of fighters can escape rather untouched. But maybe that's a political caveat, people don't want to explain pictures of many dead bodies lying in the desert.

Nonsense. When you consider that the French only have a handful of M2Ks and Rafales flying combat missions with only a small number of bombs per plane per sortie because of the distances involved, and the size of Mali, it should not surprise anyone in the slightest that the vast majority of rebels forces are still able to move with effective impunity and freedom.

Just how many sorties and bombs have the French dropped in Mali so far? Compare that to the number of sorties and munitions expended in wars like Iraq, Kosovo and even Libya and you will get a prospective of how limited an impact such a small air campaign is likely to achieve.

French involvement so early and swiftly no doubt caught the rebels with their pants down and probably scored some significant early successes with their initial strikes. But now that the rebels have had time to take stock and start to adjust to the new dynamic, I believe we will see the going starting to get progressively harder and bloodier for the French and other foreign forces.

I believe the French are hoping that the good times will last just long enough to get enough other countries to sign on thinking this to be an easy victory to build up enough forces to continue to keep the pressure on the rebels and score more success and thus attract more contributors. If the French can gather enough followers quickly enough, they could potentially turn the tide and rely on the ever increasing number of combat troops from other countries to help make up the numbers as they push further from the capital and need to hold more ground and stretch those supply lines. Whether things will work out so nicely for them is another matter entirely.
 
I believe there are multiple threads in the forum analyzing the situation in Mali so I hope I'm not repeating myself here.

Even though the French is only deploying a 'just enough' force I believe it will be sufficient for the goal of suppressing the Islamist forces and preventing them from affecting French interests.

The odds are also in France's favor that if their strikes against the Islamist forces are maintained at a good pace with minimal collateral damage to alienate the local population then they will defeat the Islamist forces through attrition.

The physical and social terrain both play to France's technological advantages in intelligence and airstrikes. Unless the Islamist forces garner much more support from the local population or find additional significant foreign sponsorship they are likely to be on the losing side.

A wildcard is whether domestic economic and social challenges in France and its allies will cause them to pare down or cease operations prior to decisively defeating the Islamist forces.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
:) you are right... and French MOD announced yesterday that 4,000 French troops will be sent (instead of 2,500).

Still not enough, but the French want some (European) countries to contribute.

Relatively speaking, the Belgians are contributing the most, with 2 C130 and 2 Medevac helicopters forward deployed in a town north of the capital Bamako. They are under French Command.

Following the events in Algeria, Cameron announced UK will be increasing its contribution to the French (but still not combat troops)
So now we are talking a total of 7,300 combat troops. As you say, still not enough...not nearly.

They are going to need, IMHO, 25,000 - 30,000 troops to be able to irradicate the AQAM forces, and do so in a convincing and more or less permanent manner. They should go in...do that in fairly quick order (18-24 month time line), and then get out with the warning that they will be back if the militants ever come to life again.

In order to get to that number, the French, and seveal EU nations (including the UK IMHO) are going to have to commit several thousand troops each. Like approaching 7,000 each.
 

Scratch

Captain
I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely no sense and flies in the face of all reason and past experience. Did the American 'surge' in Iraq in involve sending in more or fewer troops? Never in the history of warfare has any general ever had too many troops to command.

Just because the French are sending in a small force does not exempt them from the realities of warfare. Those troops will need bases or operation and logistical support and those bases and supply convoys will need protection, and that takes men, plain and simple. Those bases and convoys are targets not matter what the French do, and the best way to counter that is by having adequate manpower to adequately protect them.

I don't think those surges (in Iraq or Astan) are an adequate comparison here. When those happened, there has already been a large & openly visible force (wich already had attracted the aforementioned attention) in these countries that was commited to policing. So in the context of current policy goals, wich required patroling the streets in cities & towns, more troops were the obvious answer.

Sure more is generally better, especially if that "more" comes without extra cost, but that's not normally the case.
More troops mean even more required support, wich means bigger bases wich require yet again more troops for protection. That all makes the maneuver force more cumbersome to handle. And of course it raises the costs, wich in todays financial environment is a major issue in itself.

That might be true if we are taking about large armored formations, but since the rebels don't seem to have a hell of a lot of those, it can get difficult and tedious finding and identifying rebels forces and distinguishing them from regular civilian traffic, especially once the rebels start making an active effort to not stand out to eyes in the air.

I wouldn't say that anything below the size of a deployed armored formation is invisible from the air in a desert environment. Until now the rebels still fight a more or less symmetrical conflict, wich means areal survaillance does have a chance to pick up several heavy jeeps running through the desert. Sure some fighters melt away in the population after they "abandon" a city, but untill now that hasn't become a major security issue.
Given that one of the major factors they have in their favour is the fact that they are well armed with heavy libyan arms, fighting a more conventional campaign isn't really totally out of the exspected.

For the time being, the french & their allies don't need to poliece local neighbourhoods, or "built" a country and all that, they can focus on a swift & mobile military campaign.
While a few thousand more well trained troops would certainly be beneficial, given the wast space of the country, I still don't believe that tens of thousands are really necessary, or - also considering the current financial environment - are even the better option.

I think the idea of evicting or capturing every single person who has thoughts along the lines of those of these fighters is a tremendous overstretch. You'll have to eradicate their organisational capability to threaten the state as a whole, but you cannot even try to go after every single nut there is.

Nonsense. When you consider that the French only have a handful of M2Ks and Rafales flying combat missions with only a small number of bombs per plane per sortie because of the distances involved, and the size of Mali, it should not surprise anyone in the slightest that the vast majority of rebels forces are still able to move with effective impunity and freedom. ...

I have to agree with that.
 
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navyreco

Senior Member
A good analysis, worth reading the whole thing:

Early Lessons From France’s Mali Action Emerge
...
Small-arms fire in the same action forced the pilot of a second Gazelle to land the heavily damaged aircraft, a defense official said. A third back-up helicopter flying nearby with a rescue team picked up the crew and destroyed the downed helicopter.

...

Such light, simple and inexpensive equipment allows rapid intervention, but as the death of Boiteux and the loss of the second helicopter shows, there is a price to pay.

That’s just one of the immediate lessons to emerge
in the days after French President François Hollande gave the order that unleashed French Air Force Mirages, Rafales and light attack helicopters against two motorized columns of 200 vehicles and 1,200 rebel fighters headed toward the capital.

...

The Mali campaign, dubbed operation Serval, also shows the need for prepositioned bases in Africa

...

The Mali action also shows the importance of intelligence gathering capabilities.
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navyreco

Senior Member
French Navy "Dixmude" LHD to transport French Army's VBCI IFV for deployment in Mali
aoUDPuK.jpg

French Army VBCI Infantry Fighting Vehicles have been loaded in the French Navy (Marine Nationale) Dixumde LHD Amphibious Assault Ship, Force Projection & Command Vessel at the Toulon naval base. The Dixmude will then sail off to West Africa to deploy the armored vehicles and French Army troops (two companies from 92th Infantry Regiment) in support to the current French operation in Mali named "Serval".

Dixmude LHD will likely sail to Abidjan harbor (Cote d'Ivoire) to unload the troops and vehicles which will then reach Mali by road, just like the first French reinforcement did last week when troops from 1er RHP, 3er RPIMa and 17e RGP left the military camp of Port-Bouet in Abidjan, Ivory Coast Saturday, January 13, 2012, to rejoin Mali by land.
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