Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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the easiest way for that to happen is build more hard power + feed memes that slowly move Japan closer to China culturally like the pseudo-Chinese meme. The LDP Nazis are running out of time. They are getting older, young Japanese are becoming more pro-China because they've given up on being anti-China.
the best punishment for Japan is for them to rejoin the Sinosphere as a subordinate vassal country that is 100% dependent on China. They spend 150 years plotting against China and trying to whitewash themselves. Seeing them crawl back, defeated mentally and culturally (and militarily if necessary) will be highly satisfying. China is a magnanimous country. They'll be forgiven in time, they just have to kowtow harder, understand that all their accumulated debts will be paid with interest and understand that their leash is of finite length.
Reeducation and denazification is a must for Japan to be even given a lifeline
What would be the definition of invade here? Stationing troops on Taiwan? Port call in Taiwan with a warship? The US knows that if they shoot first, they will be seen as the aggressors. The goal would be to bait China into shooting first. Heck, they can even engineer a false flag as they have done before.
As for regional allies, who is willing to bleed with China? DPRK maybe. We often mock the west for considering themselves the entire world. However, that attitude does come from the fact that the military power gap between the global north and south is titanic. Until China has a way to project force to the continental US, I don't see a win condition that will prevent this conflict from festering and reigniting.
As shown by the international response to Pelosi visiting, US sending troops or any military force to Taiwan will be seen as "shooting first", and then China will defend its territory by neutralising the US incursion.
China can call in NK against SK and then just roll the PLA through the peninsula with KPA providing the numbers and tube artillery support. Russia can be called to tighten the blockade at the sea of Japan. Iran can be called to harass the Gulf, if US takes any aggressive action against the middle east during the war.
World wars aren't won by starting numbers, they're marathons won by the side with better manpower, resources, tech and industry, and this is a field where the East has a titanic lead indeed.
During ww2, neither Soviets nor Chinese nor Americans had a way to project power to the Japanese home islands when Japan thought they could cheapshot themselves into a quick victory against powers with larger manpower, industry and tech development capability. Look how that ended for Japan a few years down the road.
I don't think this even need be construed as a negative thing. Japan had it's chance to become a great power and it failed spectacularly- destroyed itself in an expansionist war and then decimated its economy by giving into American demands. There is no chance of it ever returning to the position it once held.
If the Japanese people are relatively prosperous, either maintaining the current (well, pre-pandemic) level or returning to it after a crisis, there is nothing really negative about being economically reliant on China. This would really only be punishment for the fascists and other right wingers themselves, with their imperialistic and racist ambitions. In fact, even today, should push come to shove I'm sure the average Japanese young person (who will be the majority soon enough) wouldn't care about relying on another country if it meant maintaining their standard of living.
The problem is the only country listed that has a mutual defense treaty with China is the DPRK. Their only incentive to support China is that if China loses, they will be next on the chopping block. If Vietnam, another "communist" country, isn't willing to back China even though the US is sure to destroy them next, the odds of Russia, Iran directly fighting the US is quite slim imo.
Additionally, just like how China today is not the China in 2016, the US today is not like WW2 US. They spent all this time warmongering and building up the infrastructure to support further warmongering. Anywhere outside near-China, the Americans enjoy overwhelming logistical advantages. Those 800 bases worldwide are not just for show.
Of course older Japanese are going to be more proud of their country and won't see China as an equal. In the time in which they grew up, Japan was at its peak with an economy almost as large as the EU or the US and much higher productivity. Abe said that Japan was a "first-tier" country and it truly was in the 1980s. The younger generation is growing up in a time of Japanese decline. They know it's absurd to think of Japan as an equal to China, so they won't be offended by the fact that the Japanese economy and military is so much smaller than China's.
I actually agree with this and think this should be the way to go in the short term future. China's greatest weapon is her economy. There are a lot of levers that can be pulled to put pressure on Taiwan and the US.
Take semiconductors for example. They are essentially Taipei's only bargaining chip (pun totally intended) with the US. If Taiwan was no longer the sole supplier of cutting edge chips, would the US really go to such lengths to start shit? If China completely takes over the semiconductor industry, what would be the point of Taiwan anymore?
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