Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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9dashline

9dashline

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ZeEa5KPul said:
End of year? Nah, tidalwave, America has decided that the war will be by the end of August.
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August is only half way there, a surprise full scale attack can come any second...


On one hand you passionately argue China is woefully underspent when it comes to military as % of GDP... yet on the other hand you are blissfully dismissive of the fact that America has decided to play its only decisive card left, -- to do the military attack while it was still relatively ahead and retained the intiative in terms of disparity gap and escalation dominance, and potential upper hand in a long drawn out attrition war etc, -- that in fact its decided to go this inevitable route sooner rather than later. You act like in all your analysis as if its solely up to China to decide when to fight..

And for the record I dont know this tidalwave but he seems like a great guy bro, at least his heart is in the right place
 
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Chevalier

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9dashline said:
You act like in all your analysis as if its solely up to China to decide when to fight..
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To be fair, China does have the initiative, especially when historically US modus operandi is to instigate conflicts by putting their troops in compromising positions, pretending to be the victims so as to galvanise public opinion for a war eg spanish-american war "yellow journalism", 1941, Gulf of Tonkin incident, 'tripwire force' of Desert Storm etc.

So long as China builds up its nuclear forces it'll be able to choose the time and place for armed conflict, and i say armed conflict because it's now a foregone conclusion given current events, that AR is going to involve the United States.
 
9dashline

9dashline

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Chevalier said:
To be fair, China does have the initiative, especially when historically US modus operandi is to instigate conflicts by putting their troops in compromising positions, pretending to be the victims so as to galvanise public opinion for a war eg spanish-american war "yellow journalism", 1941, Gulf of Tonkin incident, 'tripwire force' of Desert Storm etc.

So long as China builds up its nuclear forces it'll be able to choose the time and place for armed conflict, and i say armed conflict because it's now a foregone conclusion given current events, that AR is going to involve the United States.
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Major difference being those were small scale tactical stuff and China is considered by the US to be THE existential threat to US empire, to America as a nation and to the West as a whole...

Even during the Cold War the USSR economy was not much bigger than state of California and thus was always on the losing side, during the cold war US realized time was on ITS side, hence why they could afford to let things play out since America was winning... America has never in its entire history challenged an "newcomer" that has already managed to surpass it by wide margin in terms of real PPP GDP etc... It tried trade war, it tried Hong Kong, it tried over covert methods cough cough, but nothing has worked in fact it has all backfired... so what are it's only option left? Based on the events of the last couple years, months and esp weeks, I don't see US accepting managed decline as an acceptable option.... it would rather scorthed earth than ever allow China the possibility to truly surpass it in all domains including the closing gap in tech and military and now even geopolitics/ currency etc
 
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LOC_T

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Chevalier said:
US strategy in east Asia has always been to find a useful Asian idiot to base intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBM). I did think it would be the “hello fellow white people“ Japanese who would do it but basing American IRBMs on Chinese territory is … Darwin awards tier.
Another thing, the drills that Taiwan armed forces did for a possible AR op included Tsai being evacuated to an American carrier. What ROC Taiwan army is going to fight for such a president? Why sacrifice your life for a coward, let alone a lesbian cat lady globohomo pawn?
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Time to milk this cow dry by selling them our disposed weapons with premium price and finally kill the cow and eat the juiciest meat by transferring their semiconductor technology to US via Chip 4...
 
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zhangjim

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PhSt said:

So the NATO Nazi regime has decided to officially transform Taiwan into the main launching point to volley lethal missiles into major Chinese cities. This is like having someone point a pistol right in front of your face. This brazen escalation by NATO needs a powerful response.
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Considering that their arms procurement is a disaster area of corruption, I am skeptical of this ambitious plan.

However, your concern is justified. If the "the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022" is passed, it will mean that the United States is determined to further escalate the conflict.
The United States seems to want to take over Taiwan's military power,this spiritual encouragement to separatists will not be intimidated by ordinary military exercises.
 
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Chevalier

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9dashline said:
Major difference being those were small scale tactical stuff and China is considered by the US to be THE existential threat to US empire, to America as a nation and to the West as a whole...

Even during the Cold War the USSR economy was not much bigger than state of California and thus was always on the losing side, during the cold war US realized time was on ITS side, hence why they could afford to let things play out since America was winning... America has never in its entire history challenged an "newcomer" that has already managed to surpass it by wide margin in terms of real PPP GDP etc... It tried trade war, it tried Hong Kong, it tried over covert methods cough cough, but nothing has worked in fact it has all backfired... so what are it's only option left? Based on the events of the last couple years, months and esp weeks, I don't see US accepting managed decline as an acceptable option.... it would rather scorthed earth than ever allow China the possibility to truly surpass it in all domains including the closing gap in tech and military and now even geopolitics/ currency etc
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This is why i mentioned in my post Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

that the Sino-US conflict is more akin to the Punic Wars than the Thucydides Trap.

Certainly the US will fight tooth and nail to prevent its decline, every empire does that, but whether or not it succeeds is a different thing entirely. And that's part of the problem because the cost for the US to maintain hegemony- war with China- is something even the US hesitates, because it needs and wants its allies to bear the brunt of the dying and destruction, so it can sit safely from afar profiting from war.
In that vein, i regard the recent exercises from Russia, China and Iran in Venezuela, to be highly significant, in signalling to the US that this time, the Americans won't be able to sit safely at home, watching the bombs go off on CNN; rather, they'll be getting front row live action experiences in real time.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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9dashline said:
On one hand you passionately argue China is woefully underspent when it comes to military as % of GDP... yet on the other hand you are blissfully dismissive of the fact that America has decided to play its only decisive card left, -- to do the military attack while it was still relatively ahead and retained the intiative in terms of disparity gap and escalation dominance, and potential upper hand in a long drawn out attrition war etc, -- that in fact its decided to go this inevitable route sooner rather than later. You act like in all your analysis as if its solely up to China to decide when to fight..
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The "underspending" is more my impatience than anything else. I know where China will end up (on top) but I'd like to see it sooner rather than later. As for America having an option to launch a pre-emptive war, that ship has already sailed. China's nuclear deterrent - although not all it could be - has already reached a point where America can't launch a war against China without being destroyed.

The US is fundamentally a status quo power. Why wouldn't it be when the world's geopolitical configuration is so favourable to it? It has everything to lose - up to and including its existence - if a war doesn't go its way. This is clear in all of their rhetoric that claims their goal is to stop China from launching a war over Taiwan. China is happy to play along with that for now because the balance of power shifts more and more in its favour with each passing day and without having to go to war.
 
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zhangjim

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Chevalier said:
In that vein, i regard the recent exercises from Russia, China and Iran in Venezuela, to be highly significant, in signalling to the US that this time, the Americans won't be able to sit safely at home, watching the bombs go off on CNN; rather, they'll be getting front row live action experiences in real time.
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This is only symbolic.I'm afraid the American people will only regard this as a group of dogs barking at the lion.Russia's navy is just too worn out, the Iranians have no real ocean going Navy.If Venezuela is really invaded by the United States, I'm afraid it's very difficult for us to help.
ZeEa5KPul said:
The US is fundamentally a status quo power. Why wouldn't it be when the world's geopolitical configuration is so favourable to it? It has everything to lose - up to and including its existence - if a war doesn't go its way. This is clear in all of their rhetoric that claims their goal is to stop China from launching a war over Taiwan. China is happy to play along with that for now because the balance of power shifts more and more in its favour with each passing day and without having to go to war.
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I think it needs to wait for “S.4428 - whether the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022" is approved can be concluded.
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"Prohibition Against Recognizing The People's Republic Of China's Claims To Sovereignty Over Taiwan"
They have even formulated a series of sanctions, demanding that China should not take any action.

If this proposal is really passed, I think the United States intends to take the initiative to create war.
 
9dashline

9dashline

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GZDRefugee said:
Say a military conflict happens. (I'm knocking on wood here; knocking so hard my hand is covered in splinters)

What's the endgame here? I don't think the US will stop even if they lose the near-China conflict. They'll spin it into another Pearl Harbor moment.
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Considering 9/11 was supposed to be the Second Pearl Harbor that secured American dominance in the 21th century (per the Cheney PNAC plans) and here we are 22 years into it and US is already on the verge of total collapse, it doesn't seem likely even if they were to get a third Pearl Harbor moment that it wouldn't do anything but accelerate American hyperimplosion... so maybe they can "win" as in scorthed earth by way of MAD/nuclear world war but that's hardly a victory in the traditional sense
 
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