In the 2024 Taiwan elections, Tsai IngWen will no longer be President due to term limits. I won't claim to know what sort of person she is, what her motivations are and so on. But whatever those may be, China must be on alert that however small the chance is, whether through a combination of internal, external pressure and personal ambition, she may choose to decide to etch her name in history and go for broke by declaring Taiwan independent before her time is up.
If there's a conflict this time next year, the PLA will mostly have the same equipment types they currently possess but with larger quantities and much more training. I am very pleased to see (and much to the chagrin for our American friends I'm sure) China has the capability to produce DF-17 in godly quantities of hundreds per year. DF-26 production also doing well, and what about that new TEL that was spotted on the streets of Nanchang? It may carry a new MRBM/IRBM missile type (hypersonic?) already in service but not yet publicly revealed. The J-20 force would increase by nearly a third more than what it is now. The current batch of 20 new Type 054As being built will most likely all be launched by then (if not, then very close) and a fair number inducted in service. Unfortunately, that new batch of 5 Type 052DLs being built simultaneously in Dalian most likely won't be ready though a couple may be launched by then. The Type 055s will have another full year of experience with using new weapons like YJ-21. There'll be more of the unsung heroes equipment like Z-20s, MPA aircrafts for ASW, KJ-500 for AEW&C, UCAVSs, amphibious ships and just as importantly another year of honing skills and tactics. Another year to stockpile more PGMs and other munitions.
Even if it blows up now, on top of an already powerful force China will have some yet to be revealed aces ready.
So H-20 is rumored to have significant progress recently. WS-15 rumored to come late this year. New carrier is going to have its J-31 ready next year. In other words China is getting a significant power boost next year. As China get stronger, will west get more desperate to provoke next year?
H-20 will have IOC in 2025 or after. It's first flight will most likely be before the B-21 though.