Financial Markets Around World
- Thread starter 4Runner
- Start date
This snapshot was taken 5 minutes ago, which tells a lot about what is going on inside the country.
One funny aspect is that Wal-Mart is green, which was supposed to be crushed by the tariffs on China.
UnitedHealthcare is deep green. I am always wondering how businesses like UNH are counted in the GDP calculation.
One collateral damage would be Intel as it is undergoing restructuring and transformation under the new CEO. But its largest market is being shut down on them.
I am also wondering how Qualcomm will eventually cope as the new import tariffs will give an enormous boost to Huawei HarmonyOS eco-system, almost a god-sent gift as its native version is just been released to general public after many years of integration and verification.
I closed out my AMD position at 113, taking a hit on this particular trade, back in February. All taken together, it is sad for me to say that I am done with AMD as far as investing or trading is concerned.
Trump knows. He controls it. I don't need years of expertise to beat market, I just need Trump's social media.
The prevailing view on Trump pausing tariffs for 90 days was that UST yields sparked to uncomfortable levels. First some Wall Street people such as Charlie Gasparino said it was Japan who was dumping UST. But now another saying points to US hedge funds dumping due to margin call or outfight revolt. Anyhow, I suspect it was not a single country or a few hedge funds, rather it was flight away from UST by various countries or actors. The fact that financial markets of bonds and stocks were simultaneously going against Trump 2.0 design, I guess, was a bigly surprise to the White House. And I guess that "kissing my arsss" part would hurt lots of feelings around world. We are indeed living in an interesting time ...
Vietnam has sent top officials for negotiations. They will be taken advantage of in a big way.
All but one will go to kiss king's arsss, including the Europeans. They have no choice, 敢怒不敢言. They all hope China fighting harder, but will not publicly say anything for China. The new normal of global affairs is going to be messy and chaotic.
Once upon a time, "flight to safety" or "flight to quality" was the prevailing choice at the initial stage of a global crisis. About 9T short-term UST bills will be due in this year. Trump 2.0 admin has to have that rolled into long bonds. It is going to be very interesting in finding out who are going to pay, domestic financial institutions or foreign governments.
It is just dawned on me that all goes back to where it all started, in year 1999, when Clinton repealed the Glass–Steagall law which unleashed the Wall Street into global Too-Big-Too-Fail (TBTF) race, in the middle of the internet bubble. That in turn caused the 2008 financial crisis after the Wall Street bankers played CDO and CDS like frisbees in the central park. Then Obama changed the accounting rules from mark-to-market to mark-to-model and helicopter Ben opened flood gate of QE. Each and every US admin has kicked the can down the road thereafter and never even tried to cure the sickness. Biden admin came along and exploded fiscal deficit to 2T per year. Finally, Trump 2.0 admin came in and inherited an empty coffer. The heart of the matter is: where is the money?