This is something I've been interested in comparing in detail for a while -- to try and look at various key milestones of F-22 and J-20, in terms of test milestones, production milestones, and operational.
I'm going to sticky this thread just for a few days so it doesn't get lost in the noise, as I am interested in the community's feedback.
Two important points:
1: The airframe production counts for both F-22 and J-20 include their representative prototype airframes; the EMD+PRTV airframes for F-22, and the 201X+202X+203X airframes for J-20. That is to say, the "XYZ number airframe maiden flight" represents the total number of prototype/developmental airframes AND production airframes that have flown up to that point in time (but does not include the technology demonstrator airframes of YF-22 and 200X respectively)
2: The numbers for J-20's production milestones at any given year is speculative, and a result of trying to backdate what the "true number" of aircraft flown by the end of any given year might likely have been. I welcome any feedback on this (@Deino)
The source of the F-22 milestones of course, are from general knowledge, as well as cited from Code One's article on F-22 milestones, (), all of which are italicized.
For J-20, of course it is from our tracking of the aircraft program.
Key F-22 milestones relative to J-20:
YF-22 maiden flight, 1990
J-20 s/n 2001 maiden flight, 2011
F-22 maiden flight, 1997
J-20 s/n 2011 maiden flight, 2014
- F-22 10th airframe first flight, in 2002
"12 October: Raptor 10 (Air Force serial number 99-4010) is flown for the first time."
- J-20 10th airframe first flight (from s/n 2011), likely late 2015 to early 2016
- F-22 first "operational airframe" delivery, IOT&E, 20th airframe first flight, all in 2003:
"14 January: AF Air Combat Command receives its first F/A-22 (00-4012) when the aircraft is delivered to the 422nd Test and Evaluation Squadron at Nellis AFB, Nevada.
...
4 March: The first Raptor for Dedicated Initial Operational Test and Evaluation is delivered to Edwards AFB.
...
26 September: Raptor 01-4018 becomes the first operational F/A-22 delivered to the 43rd FS at Tyndall AFB, Florida. Lt. Col. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of the 43rd, flies the Raptor from Marietta, Georgia.
...
28 October: Raptor 20 flies for the first time."
- J-20 first "operational airframe" delivery and receiving at Dingxin, in 2016. 20th overall airframe likely flew 2016 or early 2017
- F-22 30th airframe first flight, in 2004
"9 September: The thirtieth F/A-22 produced (02-4030) flies for the first time."
- J-20 30th airframe first flight, unknown, possibly 2017
- F-22 IOC and 40th and 50th airframe first flight, in 2005
"17 February: The fortieth F/A-22 (02-4040) is flown for the first time.
...
26 August: The fiftieth F/A-22 produced (03-4050) is flown for the first time.
...
15 December: The Raptor achieves Initial Operational Capability. The 27th Fighter Squadron is officially declared IOC by Gen. Ronald Keys, commander of Air Combat Command. The declaration proves the Raptor is mission ready. The Raptor’s designation is changed back to F-22 from F/A-22."
- J-20 IOC estimated in 2018. 50th airframe first flight, possibly 2018
- F-22 FOC, 100th airframe first flight, in 2007:
"12 July: The 100th F-22 (05-4100) is flown for the first time.
...
12 December: Air Force Gen. John D. W. Corley, commander of Air Combat Command, declares the Raptor has reached full operational capability. The commander’s declaration means the integrated 1st Fighter Wing and Air National Guard 192nd Fighter Wing team at Langley AFB possess sufficient Raptors, equipment, and trained Airmen to be combat capable and deployable."
- J-20 FOC, unclear but possibly 2019-2020 with 9th brigade. 100th airframe first flight yet to occur.
- F-22 195th final airframe (including EMDs) flown and delivered to USAF, in 2012:
"15 March: The final production F-22 Raptor is flown for the first time from the Lockheed Martin facility in Marietta. Company test pilot Bret Luedke put the aircraft through a 1.5-hour initial airworthiness flight, reaching a maximum speed of Mach 1.5.
...
2 May: The 195th and final F-22 Raptor (10-4195) is delivered to the Air Force in ceremonies at Lockheed Martin in Marietta. The aircraft is delivered to the 525th Fighter Squadron at JB Elmendorf-Richardson on 5 May."
- J-20 195th airframe first flight yet to occur.
A summary of the above, and a comparison of the above milestones in table form, with years elapsed between certain milestones (specifically prototype maiden flight and production and operational milestones), are as follows:
We can see that the years elapsed for J-20 to progress to certain milestones is somewhat faster than F-22 -- but this should not be interpreted as a sign of greater efficiency on the part of J-20 from an industry/technology point of view, as we must recall that the bulk of F-22's development was undertaken in the immediate post cold war era where funding for it was consistently cut, as well as a general reduced sense of urgency. Meanwhile, for J-20's development, I suspect neither urgency nor funding was hard to find.
In terms of production milestones, we can see that by the time F-22 reached 100 aircraft flown in 2007, that was the same year the USAF declared FOC for the aircraft. Meanwhile, for J-20, something close to FOC was likely declared in 2020 when 9th brigade, the first frontline J-20 unit, would have neared full strength, while in 2020 the total number of aircraft flown was definitely below 100. Of course, this might be a mistake on my part, in terms of J-20's FOC status -- it is possible that it has yet to reach FOC... however if we assume that J-20s entering service with Cangzhou in 2018 was its equivalent of IOC, then a two year gap between IOC and FOC would be similar to the F-22, which reached IOC in 2005 and FOC in 2007 two years later.
In terms of longer term production for the J-20 going forwards, I don't think the F-22's experience will be a representative baseline. The decision to gradually truncate F-22 production was ongoing from the late 1990s to the early/mid 2000s, which likely would have seen each year's intended production lots reduce per year, meaning that not only would the years of active F-22 production be lower if they had intended to procure a large number of F-22s, but also the "peak rate" of annual F-22 airframe deliveries would have been lower as well.
For example, one can see that in the 1998 plan below, the peak production rate was to be 36 aircraft a year sustained for 7 years between 2003 to 2009 -- whereas the 2006 plan sees the peak production rate being 24 aircraft a year, sustained for only 2 years.
Ultimately, F-22 delivery looked something like this:
(From: )
In other words, depending on how many total J-20 airframes the PLAAF has planned to procure, then going forwards, the annual peak production rate of J-20 as it starts to reach triple digit cumulative deliveries, may very likely exceed the annual peak production rate that F-22 saw -- and sustain that peak production rate for longer as well.
For one, I expect the total final production run of J-20 airframes to be greater than F-22's 195.
===
So, that's my overview, something that I wanted to put down in clear written format at any rate.
Interested in opinions and feedback.
I'm going to sticky this thread just for a few days so it doesn't get lost in the noise, as I am interested in the community's feedback.
Two important points:
1: The airframe production counts for both F-22 and J-20 include their representative prototype airframes; the EMD+PRTV airframes for F-22, and the 201X+202X+203X airframes for J-20. That is to say, the "XYZ number airframe maiden flight" represents the total number of prototype/developmental airframes AND production airframes that have flown up to that point in time (but does not include the technology demonstrator airframes of YF-22 and 200X respectively)
2: The numbers for J-20's production milestones at any given year is speculative, and a result of trying to backdate what the "true number" of aircraft flown by the end of any given year might likely have been. I welcome any feedback on this (@Deino)
The source of the F-22 milestones of course, are from general knowledge, as well as cited from Code One's article on F-22 milestones, (), all of which are italicized.
For J-20, of course it is from our tracking of the aircraft program.
Key F-22 milestones relative to J-20:
YF-22 maiden flight, 1990
J-20 s/n 2001 maiden flight, 2011
F-22 maiden flight, 1997
J-20 s/n 2011 maiden flight, 2014
- F-22 10th airframe first flight, in 2002
"12 October: Raptor 10 (Air Force serial number 99-4010) is flown for the first time."
- J-20 10th airframe first flight (from s/n 2011), likely late 2015 to early 2016
- F-22 first "operational airframe" delivery, IOT&E, 20th airframe first flight, all in 2003:
"14 January: AF Air Combat Command receives its first F/A-22 (00-4012) when the aircraft is delivered to the 422nd Test and Evaluation Squadron at Nellis AFB, Nevada.
...
4 March: The first Raptor for Dedicated Initial Operational Test and Evaluation is delivered to Edwards AFB.
...
26 September: Raptor 01-4018 becomes the first operational F/A-22 delivered to the 43rd FS at Tyndall AFB, Florida. Lt. Col. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of the 43rd, flies the Raptor from Marietta, Georgia.
...
28 October: Raptor 20 flies for the first time."
- J-20 first "operational airframe" delivery and receiving at Dingxin, in 2016. 20th overall airframe likely flew 2016 or early 2017
- F-22 30th airframe first flight, in 2004
"9 September: The thirtieth F/A-22 produced (02-4030) flies for the first time."
- J-20 30th airframe first flight, unknown, possibly 2017
- F-22 IOC and 40th and 50th airframe first flight, in 2005
"17 February: The fortieth F/A-22 (02-4040) is flown for the first time.
...
26 August: The fiftieth F/A-22 produced (03-4050) is flown for the first time.
...
15 December: The Raptor achieves Initial Operational Capability. The 27th Fighter Squadron is officially declared IOC by Gen. Ronald Keys, commander of Air Combat Command. The declaration proves the Raptor is mission ready. The Raptor’s designation is changed back to F-22 from F/A-22."
- J-20 IOC estimated in 2018. 50th airframe first flight, possibly 2018
- F-22 FOC, 100th airframe first flight, in 2007:
"12 July: The 100th F-22 (05-4100) is flown for the first time.
...
12 December: Air Force Gen. John D. W. Corley, commander of Air Combat Command, declares the Raptor has reached full operational capability. The commander’s declaration means the integrated 1st Fighter Wing and Air National Guard 192nd Fighter Wing team at Langley AFB possess sufficient Raptors, equipment, and trained Airmen to be combat capable and deployable."
- J-20 FOC, unclear but possibly 2019-2020 with 9th brigade. 100th airframe first flight yet to occur.
- F-22 195th final airframe (including EMDs) flown and delivered to USAF, in 2012:
"15 March: The final production F-22 Raptor is flown for the first time from the Lockheed Martin facility in Marietta. Company test pilot Bret Luedke put the aircraft through a 1.5-hour initial airworthiness flight, reaching a maximum speed of Mach 1.5.
...
2 May: The 195th and final F-22 Raptor (10-4195) is delivered to the Air Force in ceremonies at Lockheed Martin in Marietta. The aircraft is delivered to the 525th Fighter Squadron at JB Elmendorf-Richardson on 5 May."
- J-20 195th airframe first flight yet to occur.
A summary of the above, and a comparison of the above milestones in table form, with years elapsed between certain milestones (specifically prototype maiden flight and production and operational milestones), are as follows:
We can see that the years elapsed for J-20 to progress to certain milestones is somewhat faster than F-22 -- but this should not be interpreted as a sign of greater efficiency on the part of J-20 from an industry/technology point of view, as we must recall that the bulk of F-22's development was undertaken in the immediate post cold war era where funding for it was consistently cut, as well as a general reduced sense of urgency. Meanwhile, for J-20's development, I suspect neither urgency nor funding was hard to find.
In terms of production milestones, we can see that by the time F-22 reached 100 aircraft flown in 2007, that was the same year the USAF declared FOC for the aircraft. Meanwhile, for J-20, something close to FOC was likely declared in 2020 when 9th brigade, the first frontline J-20 unit, would have neared full strength, while in 2020 the total number of aircraft flown was definitely below 100. Of course, this might be a mistake on my part, in terms of J-20's FOC status -- it is possible that it has yet to reach FOC... however if we assume that J-20s entering service with Cangzhou in 2018 was its equivalent of IOC, then a two year gap between IOC and FOC would be similar to the F-22, which reached IOC in 2005 and FOC in 2007 two years later.
In terms of longer term production for the J-20 going forwards, I don't think the F-22's experience will be a representative baseline. The decision to gradually truncate F-22 production was ongoing from the late 1990s to the early/mid 2000s, which likely would have seen each year's intended production lots reduce per year, meaning that not only would the years of active F-22 production be lower if they had intended to procure a large number of F-22s, but also the "peak rate" of annual F-22 airframe deliveries would have been lower as well.
For example, one can see that in the 1998 plan below, the peak production rate was to be 36 aircraft a year sustained for 7 years between 2003 to 2009 -- whereas the 2006 plan sees the peak production rate being 24 aircraft a year, sustained for only 2 years.
Ultimately, F-22 delivery looked something like this:
(From: )
In other words, depending on how many total J-20 airframes the PLAAF has planned to procure, then going forwards, the annual peak production rate of J-20 as it starts to reach triple digit cumulative deliveries, may very likely exceed the annual peak production rate that F-22 saw -- and sustain that peak production rate for longer as well.
For one, I expect the total final production run of J-20 airframes to be greater than F-22's 195.
===
So, that's my overview, something that I wanted to put down in clear written format at any rate.
Interested in opinions and feedback.
Last edited:
