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Equation

Lieutenant General
The UK has a a substantial industrial base on its own, like most of Europe they have to count pennies yes.
But Germany and France have there own budget issues.
yes they do but then again the UK has in the past operated its own capabilities and still sits near the top of the list easily #3 Italy #4 Spain is civil aviation their military is no where to be found. They buy from everyone else and in small numbers. That military capabilities they had were sold off to Airbus
Not to long ago the German army was issuing painted broom sticks to training units to stand in for machine gun barrels that they couldn't afford.

France right now is in financial trouble and has been enacting Austerity measures this most visibly took the form of the yellow vests riots.
Germany and France however created this fighter and tank program in a move to centralize European military power and R&D between Germany and France. Who in many ways already centralized the EU power base into a Franco-Gemanic Empire.
This move might face kick back from EU and NATO states who prefer there own industrial bases and prefer not to take orders from Berlin or Paris.
Increasingly the Eastern NATO states those who peeled off the former Warsaw pact have been placing pressure to get more power and there interests and voices heard.
We can see this in the Russia divide. Where Germany is pro Russian investment and Poland and the Eastern states don't want Russian interests ahead of there own.

The UK also seems to have been on a similar mind to this and traditionally has maintained there own military industrial complex and maintained only observer status in the EU to hold some measure of its own statehood. Even beyond that The UK exports more to the EU than the EU does to the UK.

Worst comes to worst the fall back for the UK and Italy Tempest doesn't automatically fall to the FCAS it could still go to the US F/A-XX which is more multi role and more inline with the Objectives laid out (vs F-X) Remember the US and UK have a tighter relationship than most mil to mils sometimes tighter than the US-Canada relationship and we are joined to them at the hip.
When either the British or US has a new military technology not even nessisarily ready for export one of the first partner offers goes to the other. Cobham armor on the Abrams, President Reagan's offer of F117, And the JSF partnership where as much as the USAF or USMC the Brits were given a seat at the table for F35B. X35B and X32B were flown by British pilots no other partner had that.

Do you think the US or UK will ever team up with Canada to produce the Super Arrow 6th gen fighters?;)

 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Equal industrial capabilities is rich coming from Italy when France and Germany have the two largest aerospace industries in Europe.

And there is a massive gap to Italy. The Tempest is pretty much destined to fail with the lack of partners, even if Italy joins the industrial capacity and budget isn't there for such a project. This is just drama to get a possible good share of the FCAS program.

You underestimate the capabilities of the Italian defense industry complex.
Their problem is lack of capital but it depends on which kind of fighter program is developed.

The Italians have top notch AESA radar and composite construction capabilities for example.
The UK has top notch jet engine expertise, have had several programs centered on stealth shaping.

Both have enough skills to develop the aircraft. The UK could even do it alone if they wanted to.
Main problem would be radar development in that case. The Italians cannot do it alone because of lack of jet engine expertise.

The only countries in Europe with jet engine expertise are basically the UK and France and to a much lesser degree the Germans.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The UK has a a substantial industrial base on its own, like most of Europe they have to count pennies yes.
But Germany and France have there own budget issues.
yes they do but then again the UK has in the past operated its own capabilities and still sits near the top of the list easily #3 Italy #4 Spain is civil aviation their military is no where to be found. They buy from everyone else and in small numbers. That military capabilities they had were sold off to Airbus
Not to long ago the German army was issuing painted broom sticks to training units to stand in for machine gun barrels that they couldn't afford.

France right now is in financial trouble and has been enacting Austerity measures this most visibly took the form of the yellow vests riots.
Germany and France however created this fighter and tank program in a move to centralize European military power and R&D between Germany and France. Who in many ways already centralized the EU power base into a Franco-Gemanic Empire.
This move might face kick back from EU and NATO states who prefer there own industrial bases and prefer not to take orders from Berlin or Paris.
Increasingly the Eastern NATO states those who peeled off the former Warsaw pact have been placing pressure to get more power and there interests and voices heard.
We can see this in the Russia divide. Where Germany is pro Russian investment and Poland and the Eastern states don't want Russian interests ahead of there own.

The UK also seems to have been on a similar mind to this and traditionally has maintained there own military industrial complex and maintained only observer status in the EU to hold some measure of its own statehood. Even beyond that The UK exports more to the EU than the EU does to the UK.

Worst comes to worst the fall back for the UK and Italy Tempest doesn't automatically fall to the FCAS it could still go to the US F/A-XX which is more multi role and more inline with the Objectives laid out (vs F-X) Remember the US and UK have a tighter relationship than most mil to mils sometimes tighter than the US-Canada relationship and we are joined to them at the hip.
When either the British or US has a new military technology not even nessisarily ready for export one of the first partner offers goes to the other. Cobham armor on the Abrams, President Reagan's offer of F117, And the JSF partnership where as much as the USAF or USMC the Brits were given a seat at the table for F35B. X35B and X32B were flown by British pilots no other partner had that.

Like I said here before Italy has Leonardo. So they have their own military-industrial capabilities. Read my prior post for more details.
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It is easy for someone who does not know about the Italian aerospace sector to underestimate their capabilities.

Spain (ex-CASA now Airbus Military) mainly manufactures turboprop military transport aircraft.
For example they manufacture the C-295 aircraft. It is a decent aircraft in its segment with a lot of foreign customers.
The Spanish also have licenses to manufacture a couple of army weapons systems. Their naval military industrial sector is probably the most advanced of the three branches.
If they cooperated in a fighter program they could probably only work on manufacturing fuselages or doing software work.
If for whatever reason Airbus Military in Spain could not participate their collaboration would probably be restricted to software work.

France is having economic issues, yes, but their industry can do a fighter program. It is a matter of national will to do it.
They dominate all aspects of the required military-industrial domain knowledge.

Germany simply lacks the domain knowledge of too many requisite military technologies to do their own program.
People really overestimate their capabilities. They are good at some weapon systems like small arms, armored vehicles, and diesel-electric submarines but that is it.
At least the Germans could not do it without either substantial expense and a protracted development period and/or purchasing major components abroad.
They have some know-how in materials technologies. So they could aid with the fabrication of engine components. But they can't design an engine by themselves.
They have aerospace R&D centers which could help with airframe design but little practical experience in actual combat aircraft design. So I think there would be a high chance of them flopping if they had to design an airframe. Their airframe manufacturing facilities are IMHO less advanced than the Italians. Believe it or not.

Heck I would rather be in a fighter program with the Swedes than the Germans if know-how was the issue rather than selling planes.

The UK has other possible partners if they look outside the usual places. South Korea and Japan for example have their own stealth aircraft programs.
Japan could make contributions in basically any sector of the design. South Korean expertise is more limited although they have a really robust civilian sector which they have proven more than once in the past is able to easily contribute to advanced and complex military programs. Particularly in electronics.

There is also Turkey but it would likely run into issues with US export controls and their economy is a bit chaotic. It is unlikely they could make major design contributions but they can do some limited fabrication.

There are a lot of possible clients for these aircraft if, for whatever reason, the US denies the sale of stealth aircraft to the Gulf states.
But I would not rely on it.

Poland has a right-winged government right now which is breaking EU treaty obligations. Same situation applies to Hungary. I think it is extremely likely that they will both get their EU council voting rights suspended in the middle term. I know they currently have grid-locked this decision
But I think it is not impossible to do it if Germany and France really push for it.
I think all it requires is some, uh, creative interpretation of the EU treaties to break the gridlock.
The current government of Poland made leaving the EU part of their campaign platform. So we might see a Pl-exit, and even a Hu-exit soon.

The situation in Italy is also sketchy at best but the Italians always wag their tail at the Germans so they will probably remain unless they are kicked out.

Do not count on a significant UK participation on a joint US program. The UK expended a not insignificant amount of resources on the F-35 program and I see little that justifies it so far. It might even happen that the UK simply buys more F-35 planes and skips this project altogether. I am not kidding.

There are precedents for this like the TSR-2 cancellation and the failed F-111 purchase. I think it would be a big mistake for the UK not to have a long distance strike platform however and the F/A-XX is simply too far away in time for it to be relevant I think. The F-15X purchase also makes the possibility of a US fighter program being accelerated doubtful I think. Between that and the F-35C I think the other fighter programs will run at a snail's pace.

The UK already has the engine work they made with GE for the ATF program and the alternative engine for the F-35.
From what I understand the program is at a high technological readiness level and is more advanced than the current engines the US operates.
The Italians already have the radar technology. It would take little effort to do it.
The UK already seems to have decided on an airframe design. The only question is will be Italians be interested in that kind of program.

What is it to be? An interceptor? A long distance reconnaissance and bombing platform?
If it was me I would design it as an interceptor and add the bombing capabilities later.

The Franco/German program is way too different for it to be folded into the UK/Italian program. Because those countries will not purchase the F-35.
So understand that they will have totally different design requirements. That's why I think participating with Japan would be a better idea.
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
think it would be a big mistake for the UK not to have a long distance strike platform however and the F/A-XX is simply too far away in time for it to be relevant I think. The F-15X purchase also makes the possibility of a US fighter program being accelerated doubtful I think. Between that and the F-35C I think the other fighter programs will run at a snail's pace.
BAE Tempest is targeted for 2035 entry into service, F/A-XX is targeted early 2030s entry into service. The dates overlap.
The F/A-XX is the Navy program of Sixth gen and targets the replacement of F/A18E-F model Super hornets which are multi role interceptors more inline with European mission wants than the USAF F-X Air superiority fighter.

F15X is the USAF, not USN the reason for the buy of that platform is that like Typhoon, The Latest Flankers in Russian and China 4th gens will be operating well into the 2040s even 2050s.
However USAF F15C/D models have a structural flaw compared to later models. The Longeron was apparently not built to spec on early units. Replacement of that part virtually results in a brand new aircraft. So instead the USAF took a page out of Russian procurement and bought the American version of the SU35... The F15X is a brand new airframe being used in place of an upgrade program. Basically every thing for that is Drop in as all the existing upgrades were folded into the X based on the F15QA an improved version of the F15E.

F35C is pretty much down to production numbers now and getting the navy to buy.
Since were we're talking the late 2020s early 2030s most of the US F35 buys would be done.
The UK already has the engine work they made with GE for the ATF program and the alternative engine for the F-35.
From what I understand the program is at a high technological readiness level and is more advanced than the current engines the US operates.
the F136 program was terminated the engine team disbanded circa 2011 12 02. New engine development would have to start.
The Italians already have the radar technology. It would take little effort to do it.
Tempest aims for a sixth generation platform that means a far more sophisticated radar that currently in service. I believe they could do it but it's not a simple matter of taking off the existing line. The radar systems of F35 which would be your baseline of entry already do AESA, Data linking, EW, ES and for fit in the nose of the fighter with a EOTS.
It's also beyond just the radar you need All around optics like the EODAS, integrated avionics and more and that just gets you a 5th gen this is supposed to be a 6th gen that means more sophisticated AI, sensors, Drone coordination, DEW and more. Basically all brand new systems.
The UK already seems to have decided on an airframe design. The only question is will be Italians be interested in that kind of program.
They have a hull form but materials, coatings and filling all the new guts into the machine mean this will take time. Hence the 2035 entry into service date.
The Franco/German program is way too different for it to be folded into the UK/Italian program. Because those countries will not purchase the F-35.
So understand that they will have totally different design requirements. That's why I think participating with Japan would be a better idea.
The Japanese Sixth gen program aims for an earlier entry to service date around 2027 probably slipped now to 2030. The aim being to have a partner for F35AJ models to replace F15J models that could counter PLAAF J20 And J31 then in full service.
Although they might get avionics share the dates are to far apart for there objectives and leave the potential of one having to sacrifice there program for the other.
This is why the Japanese program is sometimes said to be a 5.5 gen.
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
You underestimate the capabilities of the Italian defense industry complex.
Their problem is lack of capital but it depends on which kind of fighter program is developed.

The Italians have top notch AESA radar and composite construction capabilities for example.
The UK has top notch jet engine expertise, have had several programs centered on stealth shaping.

Both have enough skills to develop the aircraft. The UK could even do it alone if they wanted to.
Main problem would be radar development in that case. The Italians cannot do it alone because of lack of jet engine expertise.

The only countries in Europe with jet engine expertise are basically the UK and France and to a much lesser degree the Germans.

Really? UK could do it alone? Then why would they have had last two of their latest fighter acquisitions as joint ventures? Both Eurofighter and Lightning-ll are joint programs involving several partner nations. I have serious doubts on whether UK has the financial clout to actually do it alone. Particularly after spending an insane amount of money on its two aircraft carriers. There was a time they were to mothball the second carrier, in line with the conservative government's "Austerity Drive," that curtailed public spending and issued huge cuts to the defense budgets. Now in particular, when no one really knows how "Brexit" affect britain's economy.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Really? UK could do it alone? Then why would they have had last two of their latest fighter acquisitions as joint ventures? Both Eurofighter and Lightning-ll are joint programs involving several partner nations. I have serious doubts on whether UK has the financial clout to actually do it alone. Particularly after spending an insane amount of money on its two aircraft carriers. There was a time they were to mothball the second carrier, in line with the conservative government's "Austerity Drive," that curtailed public spending and issued huge cuts to the defense budgets. Now in particular, when no one really knows how "Brexit" affect britain's economy.

One reason is allegedly money yes. But if you look at the cost of R&D of the Typhoon you would see that the R&D cost savings were not that significant since the UK shouldered most of the R&D costs. In fact because the project was multi-national it suffered from multiple delays which probably made it a wash. The main reason to make it a multi-national project was precisely to prevent it from being cancelled... because of international obligations.


I agree with you that the UK government might even cancel the program. I think it could even go with an extended F-35A purchase.
Or attempt cooperation with the USA on the F/A-XX like you guys said.
But another thing to consider is that this UK government might not last very long. So the decision might not be made by this government.
 
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Pmichael

Junior Member
UK has always the tendency of overstating the own importance. We are talking about a country which will have no own GPS equivalence for security applications soon.
It will be interesting to see how the UK want to get the necessary funds for Temptest.

Also the UK didn't carry the Eurofighter alone. That's nonsense.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Of course they did not carry Eurofighter alone. But they were the major contributor in terms of actual technology.

Also the UK space sector could have easily designed their own local stellar navigation system, similar to Beidu, if they wanted.
Guess who made the initial Galileo test satellite? Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. Anyone can launch it. You could contract SpaceX to do it on the Falcon 9.
I think the major issue Britain would have is that, I think, the atomic clock on that test satellite was originally designed in Germany. Oops.
For those who don't know it this is a critical component in having accurate stellar navigation.

The other problem is a local stellar navigation system is futile in terms of British military requirements. The UK has defense obligations all over the globe in several overseas territories. For that you need a global network. Which does not come cheap neither terms of satellites or launches. Then there are issues like getting permission for yet another system. Even Russia is hard pressed to do it.

I am sure the UK can find accommodation with regards to Galileo or GPS if they really need it.
Fact is, how much precision do you really need? Do you need sub-meter accuracy to drop a bomb?

Then there are other factors. Like it is unknown in case of the UK leaving the EU how will organizations like ESA or Euroatom which used to be extra-EU operate?
Yes, people do not remember this, but Switzerland is part of both ESA and Euratom yet it is not in the EU.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
Well, it's so important that they announced that they will launch an own domestic GPS.

Mark Hookham nailed it regarding the Tempest and all other expensive projects post Brexit.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Sweden, a country with 10 million people, has its own fighter program.
I think it is too early to tell really. Especially if they can share the cost.
 
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