European Economics Thread

tphuang

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China is trying to reduce overall oil and coal imports in the medium-term.

China already mines a lot of iron domestically. Transporting iron ore doesn't work out when compared to this. You can run the numbers yourself.
Rail transport is just so much more expensive than sea freight or a shirt distance truck haul.

Yes, the Russians can double-stack and double-track railways, but it is still more expensive and limited in capacity.

Arctic sea freight will be a big change yes, but this will take some years to happen.
And to reach China, Russian ships will still have to undertake a long journey around the Bering Strait and pass Japan.

That just leaves Natural Gas and Nickel which you've mentioned.
Hmm, china currently thinks it can get 60% of iron need from domestic production, steel scraps and ownership of foreign mine. If there is a decoupling, china will really be depending on both Russia and Afghanistan. It also needs Russia for copper. I bet there are a lot more stuff in Siberia that they haven't discovered yet. As green energy continue to gain importance, I think there will be more exploration effort toward finding stuff like lithium, iron, rare earth and copper in Russia.
 

AndrewS

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Tatarstan also has Tupolev that will growing role in Russian aerospace. i never said production need to be relocated. I am saying Russia as compared to Europe is alot more self sufficient /diversified along with better demographics that enable it much larger military and infrastructure projects along with much lower utility costs for production and transport.
.Arabs will increase tolls on Suez canal with time along with high energy costs and most of Container ships engines built around expensive western engineering will force trade to Russian control infrastructure whether it is sea or ground transport.

In terms of GDP , Europe is like 5-6x larger than Russia and Europe has a broad-based economy.
So Europe is actually a much larger and self-sufficient / diversified economy than Russia is.

Once Europe gets the gas and oil supply situation sorted (within 1 year), then what?
Europe also isn't landlocked in the same way that Russia is, so transport costs are lower.

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The problem with industrial production is semiconductors, which is the same problem that China also faces.
So any Russian production is going to be so backward and inefficient compared with anything produced in China or Europe.
 

pmc

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In terms of GDP , Europe is like 5-6x larger than Russia and Europe has a broad-based economy.
So Europe is actually a much larger and self-sufficient / diversified economy than Russia is.
Europe is under the thumb of Arabs, Israel, Turks and US. All of them are shafting it and it does not even know it.
It has no self sufficiency in anything.
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Once Europe gets the gas and oil supply situation sorted (within 1 year), then what?
Europe also isn't landlocked in the same way that Russia is, so transport costs are lower.
Europe cannot sort it out. Europe is complete landlocked for resource purpose and it has no water storage potential or lowering the cost of electricity for production. crimes and strikes are increasing in Europa.
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---
The problem with industrial production is semiconductors, which is the same problem that China also faces.
So any Russian production is going to be so backward and inefficient compared with anything produced in China or Europe.
Russian didnot invest in tourism or semiconductors the same way as Europa untill recently. but once it start investing results will start show up just like Aerospace and Agriculture.
 

gelgoog

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In terms of GDP , Europe is like 5-6x larger than Russia and Europe has a broad-based economy.
So Europe is actually a much larger and self-sufficient / diversified economy than Russia is.
Self-sufficient you say. But Europe is not self-sufficient in terms of energy production. It is a net importer of energy. And raw materials.

Once Europe gets the gas and oil supply situation sorted (within 1 year), then what?
1 year is not realistic. Only in the heads of idiotic politicians who have not bothered looking at the numbers.
Oil is kind of fungible but natural gas is not. And you cannot build liquefaction facilities, LNG container ships, or port facilities in 1 year.
You clearly have no idea about what we are talking about.

Europe also isn't landlocked in the same way that Russia is, so transport costs are lower.
Lower compared with what? Oil from the Middle East which has to pass through the Suez Canal or the Cape routes will be much more expensive than Russian oil would have been in transportation costs. And Russia plans to use the Arctic routes to supply East Asia, and possibly will supply India via Iran and the Caspian. Meanwhile the European air transport industry has basically lost competitiveness against Middle Eastern and Far Eastern air carriers because of Russian counter-sanctions on air transit via the Russian Federation.

The problem with industrial production is semiconductors, which is the same problem that China also faces.
So any Russian production is going to be so backward and inefficient compared with anything produced in China or Europe.
Europe's semiconductor industry isn't that great either. And market available semiconductors are good enough for industry purposes.
You aren't using A100 GPU cards on industrial machine tools.
 

In4ser

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Melting of the Arctic will make it easier and cheaper as well as transportation to rest of the Northern hemisphere. Like I said it’s in the longer term
 

FairAndUnbiased

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In terms of GDP , Europe is like 5-6x larger than Russia and Europe has a broad-based economy.
So Europe is actually a much larger and self-sufficient / diversified economy than Russia is.

Once Europe gets the gas and oil supply situation sorted (within 1 year), then what?
Europe also isn't landlocked in the same way that Russia is, so transport costs are lower.

---
The problem with industrial production is semiconductors, which is the same problem that China also faces.
So any Russian production is going to be so backward and inefficient compared with anything produced in China or Europe.
Europe is going to get the oil and gas supply situation sorted mostly by decreasing demand through deindustrialization. There's no way to get around it.
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LNG terminals take 3-5 years to build.
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They need to increase import capacity 30x to use LNG to match the Russian pipeline shortfall. They cannot increase this within 3 years.

Daily_natural_gas_exports_by_pipeline_from_Russia_to_Europe_on_January_1%2C_2016_through_July_31%2C_2022_%2852274055406%29.png


Europe also doesn't have much of a semiconductor industry. Their domestic semiconductor industry is far inferior to China's in both tech and capacity, as their only <14 nm fabs are Intel Ireland and GloFo Dresden.
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20220221b_1.jpg
 

AndrewS

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Europe is going to get the oil and gas supply situation sorted mostly by decreasing demand through deindustrialization. There's no way to get around it.
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LNG terminals take 3-5 years to build.
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They need to increase import capacity 30x to use LNG to match the Russian pipeline shortfall. They cannot increase this within 3 years.

Daily_natural_gas_exports_by_pipeline_from_Russia_to_Europe_on_January_1%2C_2016_through_July_31%2C_2022_%2852274055406%29.png


Europe also doesn't have much of a semiconductor industry. Their domestic semiconductor industry is far inferior to China's in both tech and capacity, as their only <14 nm fabs are Intel Ireland and GloFo Dresden.
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20220221b_1.jpg

That's accurate, but not relevant to the original assertion, which was that Russia is more self sufficient than Europe.

At least Europe has some semiconductor production and can rely on imports, whereas Russia can't.

As for gas, I say another year because Germany now has 5 floating LNG terminals which should provide 25 BCM of gas, which is about half of prior Russian imports.

So yes, there will be some deindustrialisation, but the situation should stabilise in a year.
 

pmc

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That's accurate, but not relevant to the original assertion, which was that Russia is more self sufficient than Europe.
without Russian titanium . Airbus will close down production. and if Airbus cannot make planes than Arabs will further tighten the screws.
Europe current standard of living only exist to serve Arab interests. its small semi conductor production will not solve its fundamental problem. when Greece got closer to Arabs. its budget problems solved and it got Rafales. Mideast has central role to play now since Russian airspace is closed to European.

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pbd456

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Hmm, china currently thinks it can get 60% of iron need from domestic production, steel scraps and ownership of foreign mine. If there is a decoupling, china will really be depending on both Russia and Afghanistan. It also needs Russia for copper. I bet there are a lot more stuff in Siberia that they haven't discovered yet. As green energy continue to gain importance, I think there will be more exploration effort toward finding stuff like lithium, iron, rare earth and copper in Russia.
I read an article that there arent enough copper for the green revolution.
 
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