What sort of Russian untapped potential do you see?
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European Economics Thread
- Thread starter PiSigma
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What sort of Russian untapped potential do you see?
do you not see the climate change, the water resources. the whole arctic regions. they do develop resources in every region. so even with such scale of development they not have that much shortage of labor relative to development.What sort of Russian untapped potential do you see?
you can look at weddings on Youtube of North Caucasus. they have huge family structure. Ramazan Kadyrov has many kids.
It is reflected in Russian military composition. one of deputy defense minister is Ingush. there is also benefits generally for large families.
Europe will go into recession as Russian energy restrictions and other factors kick in. But this recession will be temporary, prob for 1-2 years. After that Europe will never be completely dependent on Russian energy again. Russia will emerge significantly weaker. The decoupling between. Europe and Russia will be complete; exactly as planned by the US.
Look at the scale of visits of European leaders to NorthAfrica/Middleast.
Time will come very soon that the only factories remaining in Europe will be that built products for Middleast/NorthAfrica. Europe will be controlled from Middleast. it will be called Eurabia.
Russia will emerge much stronger due to it relationship with Middleast and less pollution from deindustrialized Europa.
it is just not limited Europe. India will be also be controlled from Middleast. India will be forced to make peace with China. as China produce more products that are consumed in Middleast. any tinkering of India that constrained economic well being of Middleast will be disaster for India.
I would not expect Russia to have this massive economic explosion you are talking about here. It might have happened if they could trade with everyone else, but not under the current situation. Russia's economy will contract a bit from the sanctions, have heard numbers from 3% to 10% GDP contraction, and any growth will only happen in like 3 years. Russia will have to redirect trade towards Asia and this will require a massive infrastructure investment.
The vast majority of Russia's population, industry and economic activity are in European Russia.
If Russia is cut off from trade with Europe, rail from China to European Russia is usually far more expensive.
It would normally be far cheaper to use sea transport from Asia to St Petersberg or the Black Sea, then add a short rail/road journey to the final destination.
do you not see the climate change, the water resources. the whole arctic regions. they do develop resources in every region. so even with such scale of development they not have that much shortage of labor relative to development.
you can look at weddings on Youtube of North Caucasus. they have huge family structure. Ramazan Kadyrov has many kids.
It is reflected in Russian military composition. one of deputy defense minister is Ingush. there is also benefits generally for large families.
You have to be more specific.
And the Chechens are not a good example of an educated and productive workforce.
The majority of Russian natural gas, oil, and coal reserves, not to mention iron and nickel refineries, are roughly halfway and have same distance to Europe and China. In theory you can just build oil and gas pipelines into Northeastern China. And in fact you already have ESPO oil pipeline and Power of Siberia for Far Eastern resources. It is a matter of time until the resources in the middle of the country get sent into China via pipeline as well.The vast majority of Russia's population, industry and economic activity are in European Russia.
If Russia is cut off from trade with Europe, rail from China to European Russia is usually far more expensive.
It would normally be far cheaper to use sea transport from Asia to St Petersberg or the Black Sea, then add a short rail/road journey to the final destination.
Russia is vastly expanding its railway capacity into the Far East by expanding the railways by digging new tunnels, and switching to double stacked, double track railway freight lines in the Tran-Siberian Railway and BAM. At the same time they have plans to switch rail freight to cars which can travel at twice the speed from 80 kph to 160 kph.
Then you have the plans to have the Arctic open for marine traffic all year around once the Leader icebreaker class enters service.
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you can look at Tatarstan. Alot of factories are there and they keep expanding. so why you assume People is North Caucus district are less productive. the cleanliness and low theft standards are there to manage tourism even in the poorest location. that importance is well understood in Middleast.You have to be more specific.
And the Chechens are not a good example of an educated and productive workforce.
The immigrants from CIS mostly around Moscow. so that city is not reflection of actual domestic strength of demographics.
The majority of Russian natural gas, oil, and coal reserves, not to mention iron and nickel refineries, are roughly halfway and have same distance to Europe and China. In theory you can just build oil and gas pipelines into Northeastern China. And in fact you already have ESPO oil pipeline and Power of Siberia for Far Eastern resources. It is a matter of time until the resources in the middle of the country get sent into China via pipeline as well.
Russia is vastly expanding its railway capacity into the Far East by expanding the railways by digging new tunnels, and switching to double stacked, double track railway freight lines in the Tran-Siberian Railway and BAM. At the same time they have plans to switch rail freight to cars which can travel at twice the speed from 80 kph to 160 kph.
Then you have the plans to have the Arctic open for marine traffic all year around once the Leader icebreaker class enters service.
China is trying to reduce overall oil and coal imports in the medium-term.
China already mines a lot of iron domestically. Transporting iron ore doesn't work out when compared to this. You can run the numbers yourself.
Rail transport is just so much more expensive than sea freight or a shirt distance truck haul.
Yes, the Russians can double-stack and double-track railways, but it is still more expensive and limited in capacity.
Arctic sea freight will be a big change yes, but this will take some years to happen.
And to reach China, Russian ships will still have to undertake a long journey around the Bering Strait and pass Japan.
That just leaves Natural Gas and Nickel which you've mentioned.
you can look at Tatarstan. Alot of factories are there and they keep expanding. so why you assume People is North Caucus district are less productive. the cleanliness and low theft standards are there to manage tourism even in the poorest location. that importance is well understood in Middleast.
The immigrants from CIS mostly around Moscow. so that city is not reflection of actual domestic strength of demographics.
Tartarstan only has 4 million people. The truck-maker KamAZ employs one-fifth of this area's workforce.
Yet KamAZ is almost 10x smaller than China's largest truckmaker for example, and there are many other Chinese truck makers.
Why would Chinese companies want to open factories in Tatarstan which has barely any workforce available nor the breadth of the industrial supply chain available in China, nor easy access to seaports for export.
In terms of trucks, Russia only produces 69K heavy trucks. In comparison, China produce 2410K heavy trucks, which is 35x more than Russia.
It just doesn't make sense to locate much production in Russia.
Tatarstan also has Tupolev that will growing role in Russian aerospace. i never said production need to be relocated. I am saying Russia as compared to Europe is alot more self sufficient /diversified along with better demographics that enable it much larger military and infrastructure projects along with much lower utility costs for production and transport.Tartarstan only has 4 million people. The truck-maker KamAZ employs one-fifth of this area's workforce.
Yet KamAZ is still 5x smaller than China's largest truckmaker for example, and there are many other Chinese truck makers.
Why would Chinese companies want to open factories in Tatarstan which has barely any workforce available nor the breadth of the industrial supply chain available in China, nor easy access to seaports for export.
In terms of trucks, Russia only produces 69K heavy trucks. In comparison, China produce 2410K heavy trucks, which is 35x more than Russia.
It just doesn't make sense to locate much production in Russia.
.Arabs will increase tolls on Suez canal with time along with high energy costs and most of Container ships engines built around expensive western engineering will force trade to Russian control infrastructure whether it is sea or ground transport.