In short, this is about whether China gets to play the great game as an 'equal'.
East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone
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In short, this is about whether China gets to play the great game as an 'equal'.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Agreed on the larger objective of changing the rules of the game in Asia, but it's important to note that Chinese nationalism drives Beijing to recover illegally sized territory from Japan. Diaoyu islands may just be the first salvo, and the second might be Japanese-occupied Okinawa.
I highly doubt that China will attempt to claim the Ryukyu Islands as their own, especially since the Ryukyus have as much or more historic justification to be independent rather than Chinese or Japanese. With US military bases located there as well, there is no way China would try anything unless they become an actual economic, military, and soft power equal of the US, which if it happens at all is at least decades away.
I think implementation depending on situation. It would be decades if there are no increasing political or military pressure being exerted from countries in dispute in SCS. So far, Vietnam is being on "good term" with China and Philippines have also dialed down their political rhetoric and play by Aquino (Philippine currently have much greater problem with rebels, natural disasters and what have you to open up more antagonistic political chapter with her big neighbour). Seeing also the Obama pivot faltering and America budget crisis, Philippine also know how to read the tea leaves of which direction the wind is currently blowing.
ECS ADIZ for China is more urgent, and need to be establish for countering because Japan is a more capable country of provocation and indeed move towards the direction like buying up Diayu/Senkaku island etc,she is capable of challenging the current sea as well as airspace with her air force and navy.
In SCS, no country at the moment can challenge China militarily and there's no urgency to it. Although China hinted, but nothing at the moment would cause her to unnecessarily raise more antagonism with various SEA countries. China would react only when provoke and provoke Japan does.
You know, China can play the bad guys here, sponsor a bit Ryukyu Independent political movement, or nurture more Ryukyu freedom fighters. I'm sure China can house a bit those Ryukyu political thinkers, give them some rooms and platform to voice and shout for Ryukyu independence. We see these been done as political strategic long term overtly or covertly by many countries. I'm sure there are many resentful Ryukyuans that dislike being call Japanese and want their freedom,a sort of an eastern Balkanization plan.
Equation
Lieutenant General
I doubt it, the key thing in order for this to work is when a majority (say 80% of population for good measure) for Ryukyuans really really do want independent, otherwise any outside faction sponsored groups would be just wasting money.
Interesting posts all, but China can't be a "victim" and the second most powerful nation on the planet???? So, from these posts it would seem that all of us "know" the ADIZ is about more than it purports to be, and the US Asian Pivot is justified to maintain the "status quo" in the region. I would say that "tensions" have increased since the imposition of this ADIZ, and that is one of the "intended consequences", maybe hopeing the US will "back away" from our treaty with Japan is another??? I am doubtful that will happen, although some of the "neophytes" on this side of the pond wish they could???
My real concern is that these "bits of political theatre" will firm up peoples convictions, and force people to choose sides???? East or West?????? once we start playing with peoples emotions, its easy for others to "manipulate" situations for their own interests, against our better judgement??
once again mods??? if you need to edit or delete please feel free to do so, I feel somewhat compelled to respond to some of these posts regarding the Chinese imposed ADIZ, I am not professing that our own positions are always right, but I will state that the US would prefer that all involved maintain "cool heads", peace is always a difficult proposition, it becomes far more difficult when "others" knowingly and willingly "escalate tensions", rather than trying to "put out fires"... respectfully and thoughtfully, brat
plawolf
Lieutenant General
China is not expansionist and should remain that way. Promoting Ryukyu Independent would also be the kind of meddling in the internal affairs of others that China most detest and profess to stand against, main because it has suffered quite a lot of that itself and know first hand the damage and harm that sort of thing can cause.
Apart from the matter of principle and morality, from purely a technical standpoint, stirring up ethnic tensions in other countries is a dangerous and unpredictable move. Again, just look at the tremendous suffering and geopolitical mess that sort of meddling has caused in places like the Balkans, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and more recerntly in Iraq and Syria.
Once you let that genie out of its bottle, there is no putting it back. On top of that, stirring up ethnic tensions also gets people very emotional, and if there is one thing guaranteed to make smart people act stupid, its strong, raw emotions. That is why ethnic disputes are unpredictable and have this nasty habit of running out of control like a wildfire. When that happens, the country, controls who started all the mess also tend to get their fair share of blowback.
That is a dirty, messy and dishonourable game, and one China would do well to stay well clear off.
The ADIZ is of course nothing to do with any territorial claim. I know its a quiet time, but no posts are better than off topic so lets end that aspect of it here.
Blackstone
Brigadier
A potential bombshell in China's ECS ADIZ saga; a Japanese source said there's a secret document showing senior Chinese officials informing Japanese officials of the ECS ADIZ as early as 2010. If true, then the whole 'China didn't consult with her neighbors' argument is kaput.
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