Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

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sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
Creating this because there isn't really a good place for it

I have 2 hypothetical scenarios for how this is going to turn out

1. It's a wake up call for the US and it's minions in Europe/Japan. They get their shit together and stick close, creating a new era of western domination, locking China out of tech and increasing pressure on the economic front. As well as step up infiltration efforts via the CIA.

2. It's a wake up call for Europe and Japan/Taiwan that the US empire will abandon you. They start adopting more independent defence and foreign policies, de-escalate confrontation with China.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
sndef888 said:
Creating this because there isn't really a good place for it

I have 2 hypothetical scenarios for how this is going to turn out

1. It's a wake up call for the US and it's minions in Europe/Japan. They get their shit together and stick close, creating a new era of western domination, locking China out of tech and increasing pressure on the economic front. As well as step up infiltration efforts via the CIA.

2. It's a wake up call for Europe and Japan/Taiwan that the US empire will abandon you. They start adopting more independent defence and foreign policies, de-escalate confrontation with China.
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For the moment is the 1st that is happening which is not good for China. The EU has now being subordinated to the US.

This is detrimental to China's interests. I also don't think that Putin told Xi about his plan to invade.
He probably hinted that there could be a possibility and Xi (thinking that Putin is a rational calculating leader) believed that the chance was extremely low to zero.

I would like to say that overall, I don't like this war (from China's perspective). Yes, Russia will become China's Junior Partner (no other choice), but the cost of driving the EU to US' side is IMO too high to be acceptable by China.

Dunno, it all depends on what extend the EU has sided with the US and how this change will affect its stance towards China.
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
If Europe is spending its money on weapons and energy infrastructure, it's not spending its money on reshoring manufacturing industries. There's only a certain level of inflation that can be tolerated. You can't replace Russian gas and Chinese manufactured products at the same time.

Investments into the air force and army to defeat Russia also mean less focus on the navy that could be sent to Asia.

Then there's also the issue that Germany might be able to afford more weapons, but Italy certainly can't. High inflation, high interest rates, higher government spending... Euro crisis 2.0 is coming
 
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Leningradpro

New Member
Registered Member
This is another important point that I would like to bring up. Europe is considering cutting off of the gas will be an act of war and so Russia is unlikely to be doing it. At least this is my reading based on an overwhelming majority of people in the energy sector in Europe. Will Russia actually go ahead and cut off the gas?

Thoughts?
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minm said:
If Europe is spending its money on weapons and energy infrastructure, it's not spending its money on reshoring manufacturing industries. There's only a certain level of inflation that can be tolerated. You can't replace Russian gas and Chinese manufactured products at the same time.

Investments into the air force and army to defeat Russia also mean less focus on the navy that could be sent to Asia.

Then there's also the issue that Germany might be able to afford more weapons, but Italy certainly can't. High inflation, high interest rates, higher government spending... Euro crisis 2.0 is coming
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Yes all good points. EU is almost certainly going to face a financial crisis once again. Inflation is up, energy price very up, raw material prices very up, supply chain issues, Russia-Ukraine war disrupting trade, some degree of capital flight (RMB has gotten very strong these past days), Russian countersanctions targeted to damage EU economies, and maybe gas flows to stop

All these lead to weakening of EU's manufacturing base which directly translates to stronger Chinese industry
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Leningradpro said:
This is another important point that I would like to bring up. Europe is considering cutting off of the gas will be an act of war and so Russia is unlikely to be doing it. At least this is my reading based on an overwhelming majority of people in the energy sector in Europe. Will Russia actually go ahead and cut off the gas?

Thoughts?
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Kicking Russia out of SWIFT is also an act of war by that same standard
If they kick Russia out of SWIFT then the Gas will be cut... Russia is not in the business of giving away gas to the enemy for free
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Leningradpro said:
This is another important point that I would like to bring up. Europe is considering cutting off of the gas will be an act of war and so Russia is unlikely to be doing it. At least this is my reading based on an overwhelming majority of people in the energy sector in Europe. Will Russia actually go ahead and cut off the gas?

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
EU is all talk. They already declared war with bank assets freeze and kicking Russia out of SWIFT. if I was Putin I would stop the gas from flowing to Euripe and then put export tax for any critical raw materials going to Europe (sell them to China instead)
 
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