Real inflation in US was 15% last year, this year could get to 20%.... imagine making only half of what you did 3 years ago....
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The US has to save-face so it doesn't look like it was wrong. China's bad move was agreeing to a phase one deal. Trump tried to look tough by his all or nothing approach in dealing with China. Trump wanting a phase one deal was to spin a victory he needed that his policies were working. And China threw him a bone... Why? Was it because they thought it would scores points with Trump personally? How naïve. If it were true that Biden would drop all tariffs if China fulfills its phase one commitments, Why doesn't Biden just say it? It's because it's not. As usual with everything else, it would be only a step to further demands. You think the US can just let it go and back to normal without it looking like the US won and wasn't mistaken?
Not sure what you are trying to say comrade dude.
The basic fact, like then and now, was what the Americans were proposing, was basically nuts.
Raising tariffs won't solve anything.
That is straight out of the textbook.
Anyone who got a university degree and took some economic courses, they all know that.
But here was President Trump, self-proclaimed tariff man, and his crackpot advisor Navarro professor of economics at San Diego.
When the opposition is like this, when the other team is like this, the CCP has no choice but to agree to most of what they want. It's like mah jongg. The strong player will always beat the weaker player over time.
Trump, Navarro, Pompeo, they were clueless.
Xi and company got the better of them. They can agree to what the Americans want again, and China will still get the better of them. That was what happened when China was admitted into the WTO. China gave all the concessions, and eventually that changed the world. In this episode, PRC still probably does not know what they wanted to accomplish, President Trump, et al.
Team Biden are a bunch of idiots too. Biden should have repealed all of these damaging tariffs on day one of his presidency. But now, that failed Trump policy, he owns now.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Biden isn't going to ceasefire purely because it would make the US and therefore himself look weak. If Beijing wanted the US to drop tariffs, agreeing to the phase one deal made their situation worse.
i see the whole phase one deal as more of a stalling tactic rather then a long term arrangement that China is obligated to fulfil given that America has prove to be a nation that is not all that trustworthy. Given that China has come out of the trade war situation in a far better position then the USA, well one more loss such as this doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Of course they where hoping for Biden to cool things down, but China always did have contingency plans for any situation that comes up. Still the tariffs ultimately makes the situation worse for the USA citizens and would help to ensure that inflation goes up does to increased cost in goods to offset the tariffs so really, does China mind if the USA keeps on tariffing them when the cost is paid for by America. In the event that the dollar goes belly up, China isn’t obligated to sell them any more goods for toilet paper whereas right now, China could use this currency for just a little while longer for Chinas benefit. In the end no matter the scenario, China wins no matter what the USA does, and the USA either has to option of lose less or lose a whole lot more, their is no middle ground, just the way the usa wants it while their whole win lose mentality being used against them.
I expect China's GDP will be larger than the USA shortly after 2025.
At that point, it would be obvious that a smaller USA conducting a trade war against a larger Chinese economy is definitely not going to work,
I agree with @emblem21. In addition, I don't think there would be any ceasefire no matter what. The gloves are off. Trade war, tech war, financial war, currency war, propaganda war, you name it, the US will be throwing anything and everything at China. Remember the one issue that unites both parties is being anti-China.
I think the Phase I "deal" was a stalling tactic. China was never going to fulfill it. Even when it was signed, the amount China needed to buy was unrealistically large. It's debatable if the tactic was successful, but China did what it wanted to do with or without the deal. In fact, China wanted to stock up on commodities these past 2 years as key international agencies predicted potential looming food crisis. This was a good cover to do that without getting too much attention.
The inflation this helps cause in the US is just icing on the cake.
As far as the tariffs, at this point I think it might benefit China more if they are kept. China broke all kinds of record on trade in 2021, including record exports to the US and trade surplus vs the US. Exporters that could be substituted have been hardened, whether to find alternative destinations or move up the value chain. Tariffs on the rest again adds to the inflation problem the US seems unable to solve.