Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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MortyandRick said:
Wow that’s a pretty cool experience bro! Which college did you go to and which military unit did you doing your training at? Sounds like you’re pretty skilled. Also your English is excellent for someone who grew up and went to college in China.
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Guangzhou University, majored in English. The unit is the main PAP corp stationed in GZ I believe, but we were training somewhere north of Qingyuan, so in the mountains where I really had idea of. After graduation, I went to the UK for a grad degree in Political Economy.
 
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sinophilia

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horse said:
There is a difference between conjecture and reality. This chart is real.

American plans against China do not work, because it is all based on conjecture and not reality. Just like Afghanistan.

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How does this compare to the US sourced figures which show the surplus (or deficit in their eyes) having peaked in 2018?

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horse

horse

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sinophilia said:
How does this compare to the US sourced figures which show the surplus (or deficit in their eyes) having peaked in 2018?

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1) I got no idea!
2) Mainly because I am too lazy to dig more into.

3) Actually, that is a very good question. I did not realize there was such a large discrepancy.

4) Decided to briefly Google it and guess what, there was an answer right there from the US Federal Reserve.

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5) To make a long story story, the finding of this research from the Fed (they also explain why there is a discrepancy), is that the changes in the discrepancy of Chinese data and US data regarding the trade balance between the two, can be explained by US importers under-reporting their imports, to avoid paying the Trump tariffs.

6) Proves what President Trump said once on TV, paying taxes is for suckas.

:D
 
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ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451359666542452740

STRATEGIC CLARITY!!! I am waiting to see White House's press conference tomorrow.

If the White House spokesperson confirms Biden's speech today, Beijing would either have to wait another decade (assuming no lasting economic downturns) to invade Taiwan (so, a temporary strategy retreat), simply change its Taiwan policy toward more flexible interpretations of sovereignty/autonomy, or strike US bases in the Pacific (along with those in Japan) before the U.S. military deploys hypersonic weapons. If Beijing were to choose the last option, it could mean striking U.S. bases en masse with little warning (Pearl Harbour on steroid), which would risk triggering a tactical nuclear response from INDO PACOM.

For Washington, if Biden (or next President) does no act on this new commitment, it would be the end of the U.S.-led order in the Indo-Pacific. However, if he (or she) were to act, the risk of nuclear war would be tremendous.
 
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solarz

solarz

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ChongqingHotPot92 said:
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451359666542452740

STRATEGIC CLARITY!!! I am waiting to see White House's press conference tomorrow.

If the White House spokesperson confirms Biden's speech today, Beijing would either have to wait another decade (assuming no lasting economic downturns) to invade Taiwan (so, a temporary strategy retreat), simply change its Taiwan policy toward more flexible interpretations of sovereignty/autonomy, or strike US bases in the Pacific (along with those in Japan) before the U.S. military deploys hypersonic weapons. If Beijing were to choose the last option, it could mean striking U.S. bases en masse with little warning (Pearl Harbour on steroid), which would risk triggering a tactical nuclear response from INDO PACOM.

For Washington, if Biden (or next President) does no act on this new commitment, it would be the end of the U.S.-led order in the Indo-Pacific. However, if he (or she) were to act, the risk of nuclear war would be tremendous.
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Or none of the above and just call their bluff.
 
ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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solarz said:
Or none of the above and just call their bluff.
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Well, if Washington does not act according to the new commitment, then Japan and South Korea (maybe Australia as well) would simply develop their own nuclear deterrence and pursue independence foreign policies, putting an end to Washington's hegemony. This would be something completely unacceptable to Washington's elites.
 
horse

horse

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ChongqingHotPot92 said:
Well, if Washington does not act according to the new commitment, then Japan and South Korea (maybe Australia as well) would simply develop their own nuclear deterrence and pursue independence foreign policies, putting an end to Washington's hegemony. This would be something completely unacceptable to Washington's elites.
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What's with all the Doctor Strangelove scenarios?

Yeah, sure, everyone believes it.

The Americans refused to fight for the Afghans and ran away.

Now they will be fully committed to fight the Chinese on behalf of the Chinese.
 
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horse

horse

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solarz said:
Or none of the above and just call their bluff.
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Maybe not a full blockade.

Maybe some harassment of ships approaching Taiwan harbors.

More flights that bracket the island.

More live artillery exercises.

The war will only start if the PRC takes over all of the outlying islands. If they do that, then that is a certain prelude to war.

Also, the war will not start now, in October and the winter months because of rough seas.

We wait and see.
 
ChongqingHotPot92

ChongqingHotPot92

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horse said:
What's with all the Doctor Strangelove scenarios?

Yeah, sure, everyone believes it.

The Americans refused to fight for the Afghans and ran away.

Now will are fully committed to fight the Chinese on behalf of the Chinese.
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Afghanistan is not Taiwan, not to mention Japan or South Korea. A hegemon's job is save up resources to fight and defeat the biggest challenger, not to waste them fighting much smaller and negligible powers.
 
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