Decline of Japan Thread

[jimmyjames30x30]

hi jimmyjames30x30

The present US-JAPAN tie up is the same strategic mistake, I may not speak for Japan, but for someone from the outside looking in IT INHIBIT JAPAN from pursuing it OWNED IDENTITY and SOVEREIGNTY. There is a fear in JAPANESE POLITICAL elite of a strong CHINA and are willing to be a subservient to US.

SAMURAI BLUE, may I ask you opinion. PREmier ABE was elected on changing the CONSTITUTION and be a normal country (which it should) , is there any news. From my way of thinking is that PREMIER ABE use the US ALLIANCE to achieve that, and assure the AMERICAN of its good intention . In TRUMP he know that he can achieve it, PREMIER ABE is a NATIONALIST, he will not sell out his country.

I hold the same sentiments as you have. However, for Japan it is rather inevitable, because how the US-Japan tie ended up like what it is today is not really up to Japan. Japan is effectively held captive by the US. And it didn't help that the Japanese didn't have much opportunities and freedom to properly reconcile and reconstruct healthy ties with its major neighbors (Koreas, China and Russia) who all have been victims of the rise of the Japanese Empire before the end of WW2.

I think this has to do with the strategic vulnerability that was imposed on post-war Japan. The US intentions very plain and clear that they need Japan to be a major base to further US interest in Asia. This mean that they can not afford to lose control of Japan. And the US has hesitant to manipulate the rifts between Japan and her neighbors, like a stick and carrot tactic, to coerce Japan to yield to US interest and will.

 

[ansy1968]

I hold the same sentiments as you have. However, for Japan it is rather inevitable, because how the US-Japan tie ended up like what it is today is not really up to Japan. Japan is effectively held captive by the US. And it didn't help that the Japanese didn't have much opportunities and freedom to properly reconcile and reconstruct healthy ties with its major neighbors (Koreas, China and Russia) who all have been victims of the rise of the Japanese Empire before the end of WW2.

I think this has to do with the strategic vulnerability that was imposed on post-war Japan. The US intentions very plain and clear that they need Japan to be a major base to further US interest in Asia. This mean that they can not afford to lose control of Japan. And the US has hesitant to manipulate the rifts between Japan and her neighbors, like a stick and carrot tactic, to coerce Japan to yield to US interest and will.

hi jimmyjames30x30

YUP , very astute US STRATEGIC STRATEGY, DIVIDE & CONQUER. Using HISTORICAL hatred between CHINA and JAPAN , JAPAN and KOREA, JAPAN fear of CHINA ( due to ww2 actrocity) to justified the basing of US troops and also for them to pay for the service. TRUMP sure know how to fleece its so call friend to the bone.

That's why I support PREMIERE ABE dream of a NORMAL JAPAN, look at the possibilty, a greater EAST ASIA with CHINA,KOREA and JAPAN, as the center and SEA (SOUTH EAST ASIA) AT THE PERIPERY A large market with advance hi tech that will surpass both the EU and US.

 

[ansy1968]

I think JAPAN should wake up and understand that whatever its achievement , the west will never accept her as an EQUAL PARTNER. Alone in major western grouping like G7 as an ASIAN, she is being shown/used as an example of diversity, but with no major power and influence. Its about time to we bury all this HISTORICAL hatred and moved on, the opportunity for that is now with the COVID pandemic. THE 3 COUNTRY (CHINA ,KOREA and JAPAN) had shown solidarity, it need further action to solidify it.

 

[jimmyjames30x30]

hi jimmyjames30x30

YUP , very astute US STRATEGIC STRATEGY, DIVIDE & CONQUER. Using HISTORICAL hatred between CHINA and JAPAN , JAPAN and KOREA, JAPAN fear of CHINA ( due to ww2 actrocity) to justified the basing of US troops and also for them to pay for the service. TRUMP sure know how to fleece its so call friend to the bone.

That's why I support PREMIERE ABE dream of a NORMAL JAPAN, look at the possibilty, a greater EAST ASIA with CHINA,KOREA and JAPAN, as the center and SEA (SOUTH EAST ASIA) AT THE PERIPERY A large market with advance hi tech that will surpass both the EU and US.

Sure, Shinzo Abe does seem have rather impressive foresight. But it is a very difficult task. The decoupling of US and China in trade and supply chain is a very good chance for Abe, because he can now afford to implement some plans that strictly benefits Japan without having to cater to US interest and desire. The CPTPP is an example. The Japanese were very smart in which they turned something the US had meant to "contain" China into something that is strictly a Japan-centric micro-EU (which harms no-one, and does NOT allow itself to become a tool of the US). The Japanese have wisely put up a convincing and respectful diplomatic posture that effectively kept (at least) the Trump administration out of the CPTPP, which will ensure Japan to stay as the dominant power in this multilateral partnership.

However, I would still be cautious not to be too confident about Abe's endeavors. The kind of institutional advantage the US has over Japan is rather large. The US simply has way to many existing tools that were set up decades ago solely for the purpose of keeping Japan under its control. In many important areas, to name a couple, Russo-Japanese relations and DPRK-Japan relations, still hasn't seen any progress.

 

[jimmyjames30x30]

I think JAPAN should wake up and understand that whatever its achievement , the west will never accept her as an EQUAL PARTNER. Alone in major western grouping like G7 as an ASIAN, she is being shown/used as an example of diversity, but with no major power and influence. Its about time to we bury all this HISTORICAL hatred and moved on, the opportunity for that is now with the COVID pandemic. THE 3 COUNTRY (CHINA ,KOREA and JAPAN) had shown solidarity, it need further action to solidify it.

Well, turning Japan into normal country is a great and complicated endeavor. The so called "ASIAN UNION" is, however, a bit too far fetched. I don't think the major powers in East Asia really want a UNION. It changes way too many things, causes way too many unnecessary problems, and offers relatively little benefits.

China, for example, will NOT want a Asian Union with Japan in it. Because this will totally decisively turn Russia against China, and it will also aggravated US fear and dislike of China much further than even now. This is because China and Japan will form an perfect geographic encirclement against Russia presence in the North-East Asia.

In exchange for making an enemy out of Russia (and an almost certain Russo-American alliance against China), all China would have gained is Japan as an ally. To be honest, I have very little confidence in the Sino-Japanese (or Asian Union) alliance's chances in facing off a Russo-American alliance.

 

[ansy1968]

Sure, Shinzo Abe does seem have rather impressive foresight. But it is a very difficult task. The decoupling of US and China in trade and supply chain is a very good chance for Abe, because he can now afford to implement some plans that strictly benefits Japan without having to cater to US interest and desire. The CPTPP is an example. The Japanese were very smart in which they turned something the US had meant to "contain" China into something that is strictly a Japan-centric micro-EU (which harms no-one, and does NOT allow itself to become a tool of the US). The Japanese have wisely put up a convincing and respectful diplomatic posture that effectively kept (at least) the Trump administration out of the CPTPP, which will ensure Japan to stay as the dominant power in this multilateral partnership.

However, I would still be cautious not to be too confident about Abe's endeavors. The kind of institutional advantage the US has over Japan is rather large. The US simply has way to many existing tools that were set up decades ago solely for the purpose of keeping Japan under its control. In many important areas, to name a couple, Russo-Japanese relations and DPRK-Japan relations, still hasn't seen any progress.

Hi jimmyjames30x30

Agree on all account, people criticize PREMIERE ABE of being a stooge of TRUMP, being humiliated by TRUMP on multiple occasion. A LEADER able to accept such embarrassment show his motive and goal is clear. He really love his country and we should support and acknowledge that.

I think PREMIERE ABE think now is the time to do it, THE OLYMPIC GAME will be used as signal of JAPAN REJUVENATION. The current ECONOMIC PROBLEM and DISTURBANCE in the west is another incentive to go all on RCEP and CPTPP.

 

[jimmyjames30x30]

Hi jimmyjames30x30

Agree on all account, people criticize PREMIERE ABE of being a stooge of TRUMP, being humiliated by TRUMP on multiple occasion. A LEADER able to accept such embarrassment show his motive and goal is clear. He really love his country and we should support and acknowledge that.

I think PREMIERE ABE think now is the time to do it, THE OLYMPIC GAME will be used as signal of JAPAN REJUVENATION. The current ECONOMIC PROBLEM and DISTURBANCE in the west is another incentive to go all on RCEP and CPTPP.

First of all, we should at least know by now that most media-led sentiments and so-called observations are nothing but (what Trump calls) "fake news". Abe's demeanor is just his political posture, he needs votes. Calling a leader and a politician "a stooge" just because of something as superficial as one's demeanor, is nothing but childishness. I don't care how he appears to be on TV, I care about what he does.

Well, as for Japan's future, let's wait and see what happens. I think the Japanese has a great country. They do not deserve, by the law of nature, to be a captive of the USA forever, especially now that the US has shown that it is willing to sacrifice its allies just to further its own interests.

Besides, you are welcome to be brave and speak your mind, to the fullest of your impulses and desires. We are all educated adults here, as long as you are not breaking the rules of this forum, feel freedom to state your ideas. No matter how much you think your ideas might sound absurd, they are welcomed and loved here. Don't be shy. You don't need to delete your words, you don't need to worry about offending anyone. I appreciate that you are sharing you comments and thoughts here.

 

[ansy1968]

Well, turning Japan into normal country is a great and complicated endeavor. The so called "ASIAN UNION" is, however, a bit too far fetched. I don't think the major powers in East Asia really want a UNION. It changes way too many things, causes way too many unnecessary problems, and offers relatively little benefits.

China, for example, will NOT want a Asian Union with Japan in it. Because this will totally decisively turn Russia against China, and it will also aggravated US fear and dislike of China much further than even now. This is because China and Japan will form an perfect geographic encirclement against Russia presence in the North-East Asia.

In exchange for making an enemy out of Russia (and an almost certain Russo-American alliance against China), all China would have gained is Japan as an ally. To be honest, I have very little confidence in the Sino-Japanese (or Asian Union) alliance's chances in facing off a Russo-American alliance.

hi jimmyjames30x30

Sorry, what I meant is ASIAN ECONOMIC BLOC , RCEP is a good start. Its a good setting, but including AUSTRALIA and India is a NO BRAINER. I think PREMIERE ABE inclusion of both nation is to balance CHINA and to control the NARATIVE that it is not CHINA CENTRIC PACT.

Regarding RUSSIA AND CHINA its alliance is strong and will remaining so in the future, The reason is the SIBERIAN OIL PIPELINE , this tie up both countries to each other, its a also a symbolic gesture of defiance to western economic sanction and threats.

IT'S also the same reason with GERMANY and RUSSIA , That is why Washington is determined to stop the NORDS STREAM PROJECT , If completed GERMANY will able to source cheap energy source for its industrial development and ply away from WASHINGTON DIKTAT.

 

[ansy1968]

First of all, we should at least know by now that most media-led sentiments and so-called observations are nothing but (what Trump calls) "fake news". Abe's demeanor is just his political posture, he needs votes. Calling a leader and a politician "a stooge" just because of something as superficial as one's demeanor, is nothing but childishness. I don't care how he appears to be on TV, I care about what he does.

Well, as for Japan's future, let's wait and see what happens. I think the Japanese has a great country. They do not deserve, by the law of nature, to be a captive of the USA forever, especially now that the US has shown that it is willing to sacrifice its allies just to further its own interests.

Besides, you are welcome to be brave and speak your mind, to the fullest of your impulses and desires. We are all educated adults here, as long as you are not breaking the rules of this forum, feel freedom to state your ideas. No matter how much you think your ideas might sound absurd, they are welcomed and loved here. Don't be shy. You don't need to delete your words, you don't need to worry about offending anyone. I appreciate that you are sharing you comments and thoughts here.

hi jimmyjames30x30

Thanks for the advise, I been a long time observer here and learn a lot , hope for more exchange of ideas.

 

[jimmyjames30x30]

hi jimmyjames30x30

Sorry, what I meant is ASIAN ECONOMIC BLOC , RCEP is a good start. Its a good setting, but including AUSTRALIA and India is a NO BRAINER. I think PREMIERE ABE inclusion of both nation is to balance CHINA and to control the NARATIVE that it is not CHINA CENTRIC PACT.

Regarding RUSSIA AND CHINA its alliance is strong and will remaining so in the future, The reason is the SIBERIAN OIL PIPELINE , this tie up both countries to each other, its a also a symbolic gesture of defiance to western economic sanction and threats.

IT'S also the same reason with GERMANY and RUSSIA , That is why Washington is determined to stop the NORDS STREAM PROJECT , If completed GERMANY will able to source cheap energy source for its industrial development and ply away from WASHINGTON DIKTAT.

Well, I doubt that. Sure you could speculate that Abe's attempt to include Australia and India is a balancing act. However, Australia and India's actual weight in the partnership are determined by their share of the total trade covered by the partnership. In terms of trade volume, Australia and India are really small potatoes. So it look more like a posture or media bluff/smoke-screen to me. In fact in the long run, it would be in China's interest to include India and Australia in one of these partnerships/agreement. If the Japanese were able to convince India and Australia to get on the bus, it will actually save a lot of China's time and resources to achieve the same thing.

As for the Russia, I think it has much more to do with just oil. Russo-Chinese relation has much more serious implications to China. It's history and geopolitics. Historically speaking, the major existential threat faced by Chinese civilization has ALWAYS been from the North. This has been true since forever. Even the USSR has been a much much larger threat to the PRC than the Japanese been to the ROC, also for a longer period of time. Maintaining a good and friendly relations with Russia, is extremely important for China. In simpler words, China can manage hostility from almost any number of countries as long as it has the backings of a good Russo-Chinese relation. On the flip side, even if China is in an alliance with Japan, USA and India, she will still suffer much more if Russia was hostile to her. This is simply geography.