Day One - The War with Iran

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
FreeAsia2000 said:
Good article.

I think Iran has been following a policy of the three 'M's

1. Mines

2. Missiles

3. Martyrs

The Iranian airforce wouldn't stand a chance in any engagement against USAF for the next 20 years at least so the Iranians have followed the right policy in building up their missile inventory.

How effective would a barrage of mobile missiles be against any American attempted invasion?

Those missiles are highly inaccurate and their military is dubious. It will caused headlines and some fatalities but military, it is relatively harmless.

The problem with Martyrs is that they are just one use weapons and are not militarily effective at that. What they are good at is causing casualties. However as a military asset, they are useless. Its not likely that 10,000 martyrs can prevent an armored division from taking and holding ground.

Mines...see martyrs.
 

FreeAsia2000

Junior Member
IDonT said:
Those missiles are highly inaccurate and their military is dubious. It will caused headlines and some fatalities but military, it is relatively harmless.

The problem with Martyrs is that they are just one use weapons and are not militarily effective at that. What they are good at is causing casualties. However as a military asset, they are useless. Its not likely that 10,000 martyrs can prevent an armored division from taking and holding ground.

Mines...see martyrs.

Hmm I think your're missing the point.

Please look at use of Katyusha's by Hizbullah in Lebanon, Mortars by the Vietnamese resistance and Tamil Tiger suicide squads against the Sri-Lankan navy.

Imagine a barrage of these attacks. How long will American troops be able to HOLD any ground ? I doubt if their ammunitions and fuel will arrive by a miracle...

Imagine further that the Iranians DON'T recognise an end to this war ? Instead they extend the war into other theatres. Iraq..Lebanon...Bahrain...Pakistan...American interests are attacked by suicidal shi'ites at the urging of their religious leaders... How exactly does America intend to bring the war to a close ?

The regime in Tehran decides that rather than go back to the days of Shah ruled Iran with it's concentration camps they will provide their chemical and biological weapons to every terrorist nut on the planet
 
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IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
FreeAsia2000 said:
Hmm I think your're missing the point.

Please look at use of Katyusha's by Hizbullah in Lebanon, Mortars by the Vietnamese resistance and Tamil Tiger suicide squads against the Sri-Lankan navy.

Imagine a barrage of these attacks. How long will American troops be able to HOLD any ground ? I doubt if their ammunitions and fuel will arrive by a miracle...

Imagine further that the Iranians DON'T recognise an end to this war ? Instead they extend the war into other theatres. Iraq..Lebanon...Bahrain...Pakistan...American interests are attacked by suicidal shi'ites at the urging of their religious leaders... How exactly does America intend to bring the war to a close ?

The regime in Tehran decides that rather than go back to the days of Shah ruled Iran with it's concentration camps they will provide their chemical and biological weapons to every terrorist nut on the planet

Katushya Rocket and Mortar attacks have to be COORDINATED in order to be more than just an annoyance. Which means they have to communicate with each other. This can be jammed and triangulated and attacked. Furthermore, counter battery fire will silence these weapons after they fire their first or second rounds. Don't get me wrong they will cause casualties to the US and allies but not at the rate and speed that can render a US armored division "combat ineffective".

For the second scenario, the US is already under attack by suicide squads. Those attacks do not gain Iran anything except cause fatalities on US personell and civilians of those countries. Those attack will not change the military reality...the MILITARY defeat of a US ground force.
 

FreeAsia2000

Junior Member
IDonT said:
Katushya Rocket and Mortar attacks have to be COORDINATED in order to be more than just an annoyance. Which means they have to communicate with each other. This can be jammed and triangulated and attacked. Furthermore, counter battery fire will silence these weapons after they fire their first or second rounds. Don't get me wrong they will cause casualties to the US and allies but not at the rate and speed that can render a US armored division "combat ineffective".

For the second scenario, the US is already under attack by suicide squads. Those attacks do not gain Iran anything except cause fatalities on US personell and civilians of those countries. Those attack will not change the military reality...the MILITARY defeat of a US ground force.

IDont you've made some good points but they relate to an armoured division which is on the move presumably attacking armour.

No force that I know of have so far been able to stop a guerilla army from launching mortar fire. Even in Palestine.

For the type of tactics the americans will face see
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This is clearly something the Iranians are planning for which is why they are busy buying night-vision sights,sniper equipment, AT & AA missiles.

The question the Americans need to ask themselves is HOW will they bring the war to an end ? eg how will they stop Shi'ite militia from launching suicide attacks on american interests whether in the Straits or around the world ? How long will the world economy be able to put up with these attacks ?
 

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
FreeAsia2000 said:
IDont you've made some good points but they relate to an armoured division which is on the move presumably attacking armour.

No force that I know of have so far been able to stop a guerilla army from launching mortar fire. Even in Palestine.

For the type of tactics the americans will face see
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is clearly something the Iranians are planning for which is why they are busy buying night-vision sights,sniper equipment, AT & AA missiles.

The question the Americans need to ask themselves is HOW will they bring the war to an end ? eg how will they stop Shi'ite militia from launching suicide attacks on american interests whether in the Straits or around the world ? How long will the world economy be able to put up with these attacks ?

Before we start "talking in circles" let me first define what I think the objective of military action of Iran.

Allies (US, EU, etc)
Destroy Iran's capability to create nuclear weapons.
Strategy (military only):
1.) Surgical strikes on known nuclear facilities
2.) Surgical raids by Special Forces supported by overwhelming air power to capture or destroy key personnell and materials.

How to do it:
1.) Destroy Iran's airforce and air defence network to gain air superiority over the entire country.
2.) Intelligence and surveillance either through a network of spies or technology.

Iran
Protect capability to create nuclear weapons
Strategy (military)
1.) Prevent destruction of air assets and retain control of Iranian airspace.
2.) Disperse nuclear know how throughout the country.

For the first, the odds of Iran retaining control of its airspace iagainst the USAF/USN and other allied planes is very bad. Yes they might shoot down a few planes, but they still lost control of the air. The sheer quantity and quality deficiency Iran has is insurmountable.

The despersion of nuclear know how is easier to do. However, doing so means that you must be able to absorb constant bombarment, raids, etc on your country.
 
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EternalVigil

Banned Idiot
FreeAsia2000 said:
IDont you've made some good points but they relate to an armoured division which is on the move presumably attacking armour.

No force that I know of have so far been able to stop a guerilla army from launching mortar fire. Even in Palestine.

For the type of tactics the americans will face see
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is clearly something the Iranians are planning for which is why they are busy buying night-vision sights,sniper equipment, AT & AA missiles.

The question the Americans need to ask themselves is HOW will they bring the war to an end ? eg how will they stop Shi'ite militia from launching suicide attacks on american interests whether in the Straits or around the world ? How long will the world economy be able to put up with these attacks ?

Well you are wrong counter artillery and counter mortar fire can stop mortar fire as well as attack helos and fixed wing aircraft. Also, the US uses armed drones to kill mortar sqauds. Check out this video of a predator drone with hellfire missles "retiring" the mortar team.

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ger_mark

Junior Member
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Europeans Agree to Refer Iran to UN Security Council

The EU-3 negotiations team dealing with the Iranian nuclear crisis agreed Thursday that an emergency meeting of the UN IAEA watchdog should be convened with a view to bringing Iran before the UN Security Council.

Europe's big three powers called Thursday for UN Security Council action against Iran over its nuclear program, saying two years of delicate negotiations with Tehran had reached a "dead end."

Speaking at the end of a crisis meeting here after Iran resumed sensitive nuclear fuel activities, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany said they wanted an emergency meeting of the UN atomic watchdog to refer the dossier to the world body's executive.

"We believe the time has now come for the Security Council to become involved to reinforce the authority of IAEA resolutions," the troika said in a statement, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"The talks with Iran are at a dead end," Germany's Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters at a joint press conference. "We will be calling for an extraordinary IAEA board meeting," he added.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said a planned meeting with Iranian officials on January 18 now "no longer has reason to take place."

Iran is not "worried" about its possible referral to the UN Security Council over its nuclear program, a senior nuclear official told state television after the European statement.

"We should not be worried," said Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the deputy to Ali Larijani who is Iran's chief official for the nuclear file. "It is not what we want, but if that's the case ... our officials must plan their policy ... to put on a strong show of diplomacy and make our case" in the Security Council, he said.


President says program will continue for Iran's benefit

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared on state television to say that Iran would press on with its nuclear program to avoid dependency on leading nuclear energy powers who use it as "an economic and political weapon."

"Today, those who have the highest level of nuclear energy, have the nuclear fuel in their claws and are using it as an economic and political weapon," the president told said in a televised speech in the southern Hormuzgan province.

He continued that "in these circumstances we must master the fuel cycle and the peaceful nuclear technology."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw had said earlier that it was "highly probable" Tehran would end up being referred to the Security Council, which alone can impose UN sanctions.

The meeting in Berlin was aimed at assessing the international community's response after Iran broke seals at three nuclear facilities in order to resume research into uranium enrichment.


Breakdown ends two-and-a-half years of diplomacy

"For two and a half years we've been working with Iran and the rest of the international community to bring Iran into compliance with its very clear obligations not to do anything that leads to suspicions they are developing a nuclear weapons capability," Straw said before the meeting.

The meeting came as Iran vowed defiance following a furious international response after it broke the seals at the nuclear sites.

A diplomat in Vienna said Iran had now finished removing seals at three nuclear plants, including Natanz.

IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei has said Iran plans to start "small-scale" uranium enrichment at Natanz, although a Western diplomat said it would likely take weeks to get the equipment up and running.

With international diplomacy in high gear and China and Russia adding their criticism of Tehran, diplomats in Vienna said the IAEA could call a meeting of the board of governors within weeks.


ElBaradei expected to issue "no progress" report on Iran

The sources said ElBaradei would submit a report which, for the first time, would cite "no progress" on the Iranian nuclear dossier.

"The reason ElBaradei has said he is losing patience is not just about the unraveling" of the agreement to suspend enrichment research, but "it is also about inspections," a Western diplomat close to the agency said.

Separately, Britain and Russia said officials from the so-called EU-3 plus China, Russia and the United States would meet next week in London.

Apart from Germany, the countries to be represented in London are permanent members of the Security Council, without whose approval UN sanctions cannot be imposed.

Western suspicions that Iran is secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons are strongly denied by Tehran, whose President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed that he would not be intimidated by the "fuss."

Enriched uranium can be used as fuel for nuclear power stations, but in its highly enriched form it makes the explosive core for atomic weapons.


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crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
China has signed MASSIVE oil and natural gas contracts with Iran. The question is whether or not China is really going to say no.
 

maddogy4645

New Member
The only reason that these European countries are going to UN even though they KNOW the resolution will be vetoed, is that they are not USA!

The most powerful weapons that Iran has are its ballistic missiles, only these have a chance to inflict substancial casulties to US troops in Iraq. Ever since they got that Iraqi police force setup, US has been using them as human shields:( (do we have an "evil smile" emocon?)
 
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