Day One - The War with Iran

IDonT

Senior Member
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crazyinsane105 said:
I am trying to find an article that I read several months ago confirming that Iran had upgraded their Kilo class subs to carry Sunburns. Along with the wave homing torpedoes, those subs can cause a lot of headaches for the US navy.

Utelore, I totally agree with you. Saddam was an idiot for not attacking first. Iran would also be stupid in not doing so, but let's just say they didn't attack first. I do have problems with this one day scenario. Let me start:

Iran is making large defense aquisitions (the Tor-M1 purhcase, for example). The reason I said the author is smoking something is because he is exaggeration almost everything. Iran's military is fully aware that an attack can take place any day now. Above that, Iran's military is conducting more and more practices in the country. It looks like they are obviously preparing for something. Wiping out Iran's air force would be no problem and their navy would be finished, but going after their Kilos which are equipped with wave-homing torpedoes and Sunburns is not going to be easy. Above that, the US is not at all going to be able to destroy a fraction of Iran's anti-ship missiles or its ballistic missile arsenal. That being said, a Shahab alone cannot destroy once city block. Also, Iran's air defense system has both proven (SA-3 and SA-6) and newer systems (S-300 and upcoming SA-15). Iran could play with the Americans just like the Serbians did with NATO aircraft. That way, surgical strikes would be much less effective. And unless the Americans withdraw from Iraq, a strike against Iran won't happen.

Why the author thinks Musharraf will fall is beyond me. Iran has almost no influence in Pakistan and an attack against Iran won't make Musharraf fall. Seriously, people have been saying this crap for ages. When Afghanistan was attacked, Musharraf would fall. When Iraq was attacked, Musharraf was going to fall. When the AQ Khan scandle erupted, Musharraf would fall. When the fighting in Warizstan began, Musharraf would fall. Get my point? Musharraf isn't going to fall anytime soon.

A strike against Iran would make the US much weaker. Iran's strength will come in asymetrical warfare, not conventional warfare. Just send in hundreds of heavily armed men to ambush American soldiers in Iraq (and make sure these men have anti-tank missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.) That would be Iran's response. And Iran wouldn't just have to respond in Iraq. Remember, they have Hezbollah, a VERY DANGEROUS organization. They can respond with terror attacks all across the globe. So yeah, that's my two cents.

I don't think the Sunburns can fit in the torpedo tubes of the Kilo SSK's.

The strike on Iran will be very different, the US is not alone in this. I don't think invasion is a possibility. Probably just air strikes, spec ops raids, etc. No ground will be taken in th long term.
 

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
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IDonT said:
I don't think the Sunburns can fit in the torpedo tubes of the Kilo SSK's.

The strike on Iran will be very different, the US is not alone in this. I don't think invasion is a possibility. Probably just air strikes, spec ops raids, etc. No ground will be taken in th long term.

US isn't alone? Well, there is Israel, but who else? No other country is willing to attack Iran.
 

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
crazyinsane105 said:
US isn't alone? Well, there is Israel, but who else? No other country is willing to attack Iran.

The European Union comes to mind. Maybe its time for the Europeans to show the world that the Euro Corps is not dead after all.
 

crazyinsane105

Junior Member
VIP Professional
IDonT said:
The European Union comes to mind. Maybe its time for the Europeans to show the world that the Euro Corps is not dead after all.

Highly doubtful the EU will actually go to war with Iran. Most of Europe is dead agianst Iraq and many US allies in Europe lost much power in their government because of the Iraq war. Attacking Iran is out of the question because I doubt Europe's public will take anymore. Unless there is viable UN proof that Iran is building a bomb (and unfortunately, there isn't), then I don't see the EU taking any action at all.

Furthermore, let's say the EU does help in attacking Iran. Remember what happened in France two months ago? Many of Europe's Muslims are very angry with their European governments. The last thing Europe wants is Hezbollah radicalizing European Muslims to carry out terrorist attacks.
 

MIGleader

Banned Idiot
i dont think the gas issue is going to be that light. a cut off from venezuela aloen would make it 200$ a gallon, so gas must be 500$ a gallon for motorists. this would halt almost 95% of u.s domestic motor traffic. no one could go anywhere. supplies couldnt be shipped. thousands of cars are immobile. with no one able to commute to work(unless they lived close to their work places), an economic crises would set in on top of all that occuring from the war. iran would be much more expensive as iraq to fight in.
 

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
crazyinsane105 said:
Highly doubtful the EU will actually go to war with Iran. Most of Europe is dead agianst Iraq and many US allies in Europe lost much power in their government because of the Iraq war. Attacking Iran is out of the question because I doubt Europe's public will take anymore. Unless there is viable UN proof that Iran is building a bomb (and unfortunately, there isn't), then I don't see the EU taking any action at all.

Furthermore, let's say the EU does help in attacking Iran. Remember what happened in France two months ago? Many of Europe's Muslims are very angry with their European governments. The last thing Europe wants is Hezbollah radicalizing European Muslims to carry out terrorist attacks.

I don't want to get too political but if you look at the diplomatic dialogue, it is actually UK, France, and Germany that is taking the lead in this. The US is just taking the back seat. IN fact, Russia is taking a more active role than the US. They were the ones who advocated that Uranium enrichment should occur in their territory, a plan that EU and US liked but Iran ultimately rejected.

Then there was that well timed (or ill timed depending on your point of view) rhetoric about wiping out Israel from the map. It did not help their cause of using nuclear power for peaceful purposes.

Don't get me wrong, the US will still provide the bulk of the forces arrayed against Iran. Only this time UK, France, and Germany is standing with them. Once IEAE refers Iran to the UN, so will the UN.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
there's always britain that wants to help US control the middle east. and japan might just use "humanitarian aid" as an excuse. but then again, japan have huge oil interests in Iran already, so they might object. france and germany might be taking the lead in negotiations.. but once it comes down to fighting, they might back out, especially with the large muslim population in france, and recent riots. i doubt the french and german government is in a strong position to sent troops.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
FreeAsia2000 said:
How realistic is the scenario below ? It was written by usaf veteran

It's not realistic.

If the US only needs to destroy Iranian nuclear research facility, it can do so with stand off weapons/LACM's and without Israeli AF and "mini nukes". Alternatively, if Israeli AF was performing the strike, the US might provide covert aid, but not paticipate directly.

There's no reason to risk conventional aircraft when USAF has stealth bombers and Tomahawks that can be used for precision strikes. If Iran choose to respond by attacking Kuwati/Saudi tankers, then the Arab governments would be siding with the US and not Iran.
 

FreeAsia2000

Junior Member
drunkhomer said:
this is a really good article about a possible war wif iran

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Good article.

I think Iran has been following a policy of the three 'M's

1. Mines

2. Missiles

3. Martyrs

The Iranian airforce wouldn't stand a chance in any engagement against USAF for the next 20 years at least so the Iranians have followed the right policy in building up their missile inventory.

How effective would a barrage of mobile missiles be against any American attempted invasion?
 
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