I am trying to find an article that I read several months ago confirming that Iran had upgraded their Kilo class subs to carry Sunburns. Along with the wave homing torpedoes, those subs can cause a lot of headaches for the US navy.
Utelore, I totally agree with you. Saddam was an idiot for not attacking first. Iran would also be stupid in not doing so, but let's just say they didn't attack first. I do have problems with this one day scenario. Let me start:
Iran is making large defense aquisitions (the Tor-M1 purhcase, for example). The reason I said the author is smoking something is because he is exaggeration almost everything. Iran's military is fully aware that an attack can take place any day now. Above that, Iran's military is conducting more and more practices in the country. It looks like they are obviously preparing for something. Wiping out Iran's air force would be no problem and their navy would be finished, but going after their Kilos which are equipped with wave-homing torpedoes and Sunburns is not going to be easy. Above that, the US is not at all going to be able to destroy a fraction of Iran's anti-ship missiles or its ballistic missile arsenal. That being said, a Shahab alone cannot destroy once city block. Also, Iran's air defense system has both proven (SA-3 and SA-6) and newer systems (S-300 and upcoming SA-15). Iran could play with the Americans just like the Serbians did with NATO aircraft. That way, surgical strikes would be much less effective. And unless the Americans withdraw from Iraq, a strike against Iran won't happen.
Why the author thinks Musharraf will fall is beyond me. Iran has almost no influence in Pakistan and an attack against Iran won't make Musharraf fall. Seriously, people have been saying this crap for ages. When Afghanistan was attacked, Musharraf would fall. When Iraq was attacked, Musharraf was going to fall. When the AQ Khan scandle erupted, Musharraf would fall. When the fighting in Warizstan began, Musharraf would fall. Get my point? Musharraf isn't going to fall anytime soon.
A strike against Iran would make the US much weaker. Iran's strength will come in asymetrical warfare, not conventional warfare. Just send in hundreds of heavily armed men to ambush American soldiers in Iraq (and make sure these men have anti-tank missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.) That would be Iran's response. And Iran wouldn't just have to respond in Iraq. Remember, they have Hezbollah, a VERY DANGEROUS organization. They can respond with terror attacks all across the globe. So yeah, that's my two cents.