We currently don't have a timeline for when Fujian will launch its first J-XY/35.
Liaoning underwent its first sea trial in August 2011, and the first carrierborne landing and takeoff with a J-15 was done in November 2012, a whole year later.
If Fujian embarks on its first sea trial in the first quarter of 2024, it may well be that the first carrierborne landings and takeoffs will only be done a year later, and even then it may not include all of the aircraft types (e.g.: it may trial J-15B first, and then later do KJ-600 and J-35/XY).
Shandong had it a bit quicker; with first sea trial in May 2018 and carrierborne landings and takeoffs in September 2018, but it's also worth remembering Shandong had the same recovery (and more importantly) launch mechanisms as Liaoning as well as the same airwing.
Whereas for Fujian, everything is new and novel.
As for USS Ford, the ship itself should have be capable of operating F-35Cs without substantial modification like some of the older Nimitz's. The fact that it isn't operating F-35Cs is likely more specific to the Ford's EMALS and AAG rather than... well everything else involved in operating a complement of 5th generation fighters.
.... all of which is to say, at this stage it is overambitious to say that it's "almost certainly going to happen".
It depends on how fast and far along they are with Fujian's sea trials and subsequent aviation trials, as well as whether J-XY/35 is ready for carrier aviation trials by the time the former is.
And on the Ford side, taking the Vinson's refit duration as guidance for it is not very logical, because Ford should have been built from the ground up to be able to operate F-35Cs; the issue being when the problems with EMALS and AAG are sorted out for F-35C operation, which could take years to do or they might figure out and announce a fix in the immediate future.
If this is a particular milestone one is interested in watching, then the race is still very much on.
