How different between CV16 and CV17, compare with HMS QE and HMS Prince of Wales, with regrad to their future obsolete functionalities, other than HMS QE's F-35B.
Going forward in next 30 years, development of PLAN Aviation planes might include 6th Gen (Chinese 5th Gen) jet, combat/Strike drones with STOL/VTOL capabilities, giving new upgrade in effectiveness to CV16 and CV17. The main strike capability of aircraft carrier lies in the capability of its air assets rather than the other way around.
Retiring both CV16 and CV17 before the end of their useful lives just because they are not CATOBAR is not a wise decision.
CV-16/17 can certainly have their useful lives extended if new aircraft are developed that are compatible with their ski jumps.
In particular, in the medium term, I am thinking about the carrier based 5th gen fighter -- obviously the J-XY is expected to be catapult compatible and intended for arrested recovery, but if it is also able to be launched from a ski jump (which may not require much additional strengthening) then that will greatly extend the useful lives and the capability of CV-16/17.
Thinking ahead to what a carrier based 6th generation fighter may look like is useful, yes.
But one also has to think about how many aircraft carriers the PLAN intends to operate -- by the mid 2030s, it may well be that the PLAN have bought enough carriers that meets their force requirements while having produced a significant number of CATOBAR carriers from hot production lines, leaving CV-16/17 as the remaining STOBAR carriers in service.
By then, the question to ask will be whether the personnel and operating costs that are allocated for CV-16/17, may be better used to retire them early and buy two CATOBARs to replace them, given how much more capable CATOBARs would be while having perhaps only a marginally higher personnel requirement and operating cost.
Regardless of whether CV-16/17 are retired "early" and replaced by new build CATOBARs (once the PLAN approaches their required number of aircraft carriers) -- I very much doubt they will be refit with catapults. The nature of the modification, the shipyard and dock time, the costs involved.... it's not worth it.
That is to say -- regardless of when the PLAN retires CV-16/17, I expect them to have ski jumps, and no catapults.