CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

weig2000

Captain
I agree that I think at least one additional 003 would be built before they build their first nuclear carrier, for similar but slightly different reasons to you.

I certainly agree that 003 as a carrier seems like it'll shape up to be a very competent CATOBAR carrier and will be able to achieve many of the requirements that the PLAN has, however compared to a nuclear carrier, deficiencies in endurance, in capacity of aviation fuel, and slightly greater size and power output will still remain.

The reason I think they will want to build at least one more 003 pattern carrier, is because I fundamentally do not expect the first nuclear carrier to start construction until late this decade. 2028ish.


003 will be launched in 2022, and I expect the first nuclear carrier won't be launched until 2030 at the earliest, possibly even early 2030s.
That is nearly a decade between launches. For such a long duration, I certainly expect the PLAN to seek at least one more carrier, and an 003 pattern carrier (maybe with some small refinements) will certainly be appropriate for it.

...

I agree. I probably should have added this particularly point in my post above. This was exactly the biggest reason I believed that PLAN should build at least two Type 003 even if the Type 003 turned out to be a 70,000-ton class carrier, if there would be some wait time before the CVN would be ready. The experiences and the availability that PLAN would gain by operating two CATOBAR carriers far more outweigh the deficiencies and additional cost of somewhat less ideal first-time CATOBAR carriers.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
I agree with your prediction. Before China conquers Taiwan, I don't think China would pursue global power as the United States. Since China also does not have oversea colonies as France, if becoming the global power is not China's goal, there is really minimal additional benefits of nuclear aircrafts.

If china uses her carriers in a conflict with taiwan, then these carriers will not be used as a raiding force that go in, launch a strike, and then go out, like japanese attack on pearl harbor. They will have to engage in persistent operation, either to provide air cover and close support for landing forces, or to provide a defensive screen seaward of taiwan against intervention by US led forces, or both.

Either way, the force needs to persistently assert its presence for weeks.

For a carrier force engaged on persistent operation, nuclear power is a force multiplier regardless of how far the operation is from the carrier’s home port because the carrier does not need to refuel herself, and need to replenish her aviation stores much less often. Therefore the carrier can remain on station for longer at a stretch and depart to resupply more quickly.

In other words, a force of three nuclear carriers could well be able to always supply as much presence in the battle area as 4-5 conventional carriers each with the same air complement.
 
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Intrepid

Major
Liaoning and Shandong are "one-third" aircraft carriers from an operational perspective. They have only a small number of "workhorses" (combat aircraft) on board, no significant number of support aircraft.

003 will be a "two thirds" aircraft carrier with a still reduced number of "workhorses" (combat aircraft) but all supporting components.

Only the aircraft carrier draft after 003 will have its full size and capability. The plans for this have long been drawn, and components have certainly already been ordered or in production. The ability to build and operate such a ship has long existed. But the Chinese are thoughtful and wise and want to have made their own experiences on the way there. The Chinese want to understand why things are the way they are.

Hats off to such a well-structured approach and such a long breath!

I see it as three parts of an education of the highest quality: the goal is not to pass the exam at the end, but to master every single exercise on the way with flying colors.

003 is the second of three parts, not the exam at the end!
 

Red tsunami

Junior Member
Registered Member
可能他们只是在测试不同的运营商配置。

此外,据我所知,核反应堆的热功率将低于尼米兹级核反应堆。
ACP100S 的热功率大约是福特级反应堆的一半。
也许他们会使用两倍的反应堆?
中国的军用核反应堆不会像acp100那样公开。
 

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member
Registered Member
I agree that I think at least one additional 003 would be built before they build their first nuclear carrier, for similar but slightly different reasons to you.

I certainly agree that 003 as a carrier seems like it'll shape up to be a very competent CATOBAR carrier and will be able to achieve many of the requirements that the PLAN has, however compared to a nuclear carrier, deficiencies in endurance, in capacity of aviation fuel, and slightly greater size and power output will still remain.

The reason I think they will want to build at least one more 003 pattern carrier, is because I fundamentally do not expect the first nuclear carrier to start construction until late this decade. 2028ish.


003 will be launched in 2022, and I expect the first nuclear carrier won't be launched until 2030 at the earliest, possibly even early 2030s.
That is nearly a decade between launches. For such a long duration, I certainly expect the PLAN to seek at least one more carrier, and an 003 pattern carrier (maybe with some small refinements) will certainly be appropriate for it.

However, I say "at least" one more 003 pattern carrier between the current 003 and the first CVN... meaning I believe there are prospects for additional 003 carriers being built.
This is getting into strategic procurement domains, but depending on how ambitious the PLAN are with their carrier procurement in their overall naval strategy and in the overall PLA's strategy, I could see them procuring an additional three 003 pattern carriers between the first 003 and the first CVN.

With the speed at which JNCX will be able to work at, especially given they now know how 003 is built, I could see them building three more 003s between the lead 003 being launched and 2030 -- and if two 003s are built at JN and one 003 is built at DL, then that would easily be feasible even if we make the assumption that both JN and DL start work on a nuclear carrier apiece in the late 2020s (which I personally find unlikely -- i.e.: I'd be surprised if JN and DL both start work on the new nuclear carrier each, at the same time).

Basically, going into 2030, in terms of the number of carriers in service, it would be six carriers in service (CV-16, CV-17, and four 003 pattern carriers), with the first nuclear carrier to be commissioned in the early to mid 2030s, and production of nuclear carriers would progress apace in the 2030s as well, to eventually reach a steady state of 11-12 CATOBAR carriers.


But again, this is making a few serious assumptions on my part, namely that the PLAN desires a force of some six or so carriers in service by 2030, and that they eventually seek a steady state of up to 12 CATOBAR carriers to be achieved by the late 2030s, that JN and DL will eventually both get into the carrier construction game simultaneously etc.
Ultimately, we just don't know where exactly where they want to go with their carrier fleet going into the 2020s let alone the 2030s, but we're going to find out soon enough.
11-12 carriers in my opinion is not realistic and PLAN will instead settle for 6 carriers for forseable future. Due to China’s non interference policy, lack of allies and economic constrains, China will try to limit the number of carriers to half of USN.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
11-12 carriers in my opinion is not realistic and PLAN will instead settle for 6 carriers for forseable future. Due to China’s non interference policy, lack of allies and economic constrains, China will try to limit the number of carriers to half of USN.

This again, goes back to my opinion that people too often think of the value of carriers lying in their ability to project power around the globe in low/medium intensity scenarios -- while not recognizing carriers are a vital component in a regional open ocean/blue water range high intensity air/naval/missile conflict, including for the PLA/PLAN.

If one thinks about what the PLAN and PLA's overall conventional warfighting requirements are likely to be, and given the likely capabilities of the US and USN going into the next two decades, that sort of projection feeds into my vision for carrier requirements going into late 2030s.
 

Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
This again, goes back to my opinion that people too often think of the value of carriers lying in their ability to project power around the globe in low/medium intensity scenarios -- while not recognizing carriers are a vital component in a regional open ocean/blue water range high intensity air/naval/missile conflict, including for the PLA/PLAN.

If one thinks about what the PLAN and PLA's overall conventional warfighting requirements are likely to be, and given the likely capabilities of the US and USN going into the next two decades, that sort of projection feeds into my vision for carrier requirements going into late 2030s.

I was going to add that guessing on likely carrier fleet size is pointless without reference to expected posture/doctrine. I missed it on the first reading of your post, thanks for restating it.

I agree ... "we're going to find out soon enough". Would be nice of the PLAN to issue a white paper though ;)
 
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