Agreed.Btw, in regards to this part of the post, I imagine this is the sort of development that they would hear through the grapevine via insiders.
It is not likely for anyone who is not military/govt to have been able to literally see a successful launch from Huangdicun (which we should remember is a fully functional, fairly isolated naval air facility).
The chance of any true outsiders being able to literally see it happening is close to zero. The site is totally military not even with any residential area for families of the pilots and workers. It is far away from the road where civilians are allowed. Unless some professional spies/civilians did a super good job to get close enough to identify a catapult launch from a ski-jump launch.
That is almost certain. See my post #309 about the raised deflactors. A launch trail is 100% ganranteed. I am willing to accept the possibility (1%) of a failure of J-15 into the air just to be logically water-tight, not really I believe it.Instead, what's more likely I think is that such a successful launch would've occurred (unobserved by anybody who is not military/govt) and instead was filtered down through the various contacts semi-deliberately and relayed to cao gen who then told us.