CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Blitzo]

Can't think of any off hand, but I think it's reasonable to assume the general principle that the more distant the timeline, the less certain the facts.

Okay, I appreciate the outline of your reasoning.

 

[Red Moon]

Not to keep an argument going forever, but while @Bltizo is speaking about rumors that have existed for a long time, @Iron Man is referring to current rumors about things a long way into the future. You are talking past each other.

 

[Deino]

Via @红色金银潍 from Weibo

 

[Blitzo]

Not to keep an argument going forever, but while @Bltizo is speaking about rumors that have existed for a long time, @Iron Man is referring to current rumors about things a long way into the future. You are talking past each other.

To clarify, when I talk about "long term rumours" I'm talking about rumours that first appeared a long time ago, but which have since then received continuous indications over the years that the original rumour was still "active" usually in the form of acknowledging that it is still active, or sometimes describing predictions for how far the project has moved along (in domains such as subsystems, construction predictions, projected timetable, etc).

I.e.: my "long term rumour" is not merely a rumour that appears once a long time ago and then we never hear from them again -- but rather a rumour that appears a long time ago but which over the years we have received indications that it is still active and/or progressing.


For example, we had rumours of 003 back in the late 2000s of a conventional Kitty Hawk sized conventional carrier that the PLAN was working on.

Between the late 2000s/early 2010s to now it was certainly a long term rumour in the sense that back in the late 2000s/early 2010s it was predicting a ship that would only emerge quite a few years later. However between then to now in 2019 we received continuous updates for the project, including giving us a name (002 and then 003 to replace it), giving us a clearer idea as to how big it would be, giving us clearer ideas as to what sort of catapults it would use, giving us a clearer idea as to where it would be built and when we could expect to see pictures of it by...

.... and now in 2019 when we are actively able to follow its construction with pictures.

This was all the cumulative result of rumours that originated a long time ago but which were kept up to date by rumours confirming that it was still active and giving us progressively more information about the project as it progressed.


For the nuclear carrier, it is a project that we've had rumours for a while going backwards into the past, but it is also a project which by the nature of its technology, is something that we will still have to wait some time until we see it emerge.
I.e.: there are still additional rumours that we would expect to be given to us in coming years between now and when it eventually emerges (if it is developed).


Just like how in the early 2010s we didn't have all the details about carrier 003 (then known as 002) and how we all knew it would likely take a long time for it to emerge, however the rumours at the time indicated it was a project that was still active and ongoing.
The situation for the nuclear carrier at present as of 2019 is not too different.

 

[Iron Man]

To clarify, when I talk about "long term rumours" I'm talking about rumours that first appeared a long time ago, but which have since then received continuous indications over the years that the original rumour was still "active" usually in the form of acknowledging that it is still active, or sometimes describing predictions for how far the project has moved along (in domains such as subsystems, construction predictions, projected timetable, etc).

I.e.: my "long term rumour" is not merely a rumour that appears once a long time ago and then we never hear from them again -- but rather a rumour that appears a long time ago but which over the years we have received indications that it is still active and/or progressing.


For example, we had rumours of 003 back in the late 2000s of a conventional Kitty Hawk sized conventional carrier that the PLAN was working on.

Between the late 2000s/early 2010s to now it was certainly a long term rumour in the sense that back in the late 2000s/early 2010s it was predicting a ship that would only emerge quite a few years later. However between then to now in 2019 we received continuous updates for the project, including giving us a name (002 and then 003 to replace it), giving us a clearer idea as to how big it would be, giving us clearer ideas as to what sort of catapults it would use, giving us a clearer idea as to where it would be built and when we could expect to see pictures of it by...

.... and now in 2019 when we are actively able to follow its construction with pictures.

This was all the cumulative result of rumours that originated a long time ago but which were kept up to date by rumours confirming that it was still active and giving us progressively more information about the project as it progressed.


For the nuclear carrier, it is a project that we've had rumours for a while going backwards into the past, but it is also a project which by the nature of its technology, is something that we will still have to wait some time until we see it emerge.
I.e.: there are still additional rumours that we would expect to be given to us in coming years between now and when it eventually emerges (if it is developed).


Just like how in the early 2010s we didn't have all the details about carrier 003 (then known as 002) and how we all knew it would likely take a long time for it to emerge, however the rumours at the time indicated it was a project that was still active and ongoing.
The situation for the nuclear carrier at present as of 2019 is not too different.

However you spin it, rumors aren't facts. If they were, they wouldn't be rumors in the first place. You make it sound like a nuclear carrier design is a done deal, and that the rumors about it might as well be official statements straight from the Chinese military. You also don't distinguish between rumors and speculation (and subsequent rumors based on earlier speculation), as no doubt some or many of these rumors likely are.

 

[Mirabo]

Apparently Rear Admiral Zhang Xu Dong at an appearance at Zhejiang institute of technology stated that the carrier being built at Shanghai would displace 78,000 tons and have conventional propulsion and electromagnetic catapults.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Zhang Xu Dong was formerly a captain of the 052C DDG 170.
So, all things that we've known about roughly for a while now, but this is just another bit of a tidbit to add further weight to that consensus.

If he did state this then I would believe that the information he is giving is accurate and a reflection of the state of affairs, and not merely a "recycling" of the same rumours we have had for a while now (namely the displacement) if the rumours were inaccurate, however the possibility of the latter cannot fully be excluded.

But at present the consensus continues to be that 003 will be a conventionally powered carrier with EM cats and a displacement of around 80,000 tons (depending on whether the 78,000 tons is normal or full).

Adding on to these rumors:

• 003 will have displacement 78,000 tons (likely standard displacement) with EM cats and conventional propulsion.
• 004 will begin construction at Dalian in the coming years, nuclear with EM cats, and the design has largely been finalized.
• 5th generation naval fighter is well under development and apparently is already undergoing testing.

If 003 indeed displaces 78,000 tons standard with a 41-metre waterline width, we can assume as much as 85,000 tons full displacement.

Let's wait for more news.

 

[jobjed]

• 004 will begin construction at Dalian in the coming years, nuclear with EM cats, and the design has largely been finalized.

If "00X" refer to individual carriers, that would mean only one conventional CATOBAR will be constructed.... unless 003 and 004 are class designations.

 

[Intrepid]

We do not know, whether 004 is a sistership of 003 or a ship of its own class.

At the moment China has two classes of aircraft carriers:

• STOBAR similar to Kuznetsov with 2 individual hulls (001, 002)
• new conventional CATOBAR design with 1 individual hull (003)

 

[Blitzo]

However you spin it, rumors aren't facts. If they were, they wouldn't be rumors in the first place. You make it sound like a nuclear carrier design is a done deal, and that the rumors about it might as well be official statements straight from the Chinese military. You also don't distinguish between rumors and speculation (and subsequent rumors based on earlier speculation), as no doubt some or many of these rumors likely are.

I don't think anyone claimed that rumours were facts; what was discussed was the nature of long term rumours and their relationship with their associated projects.

 

[Blitzo]

Adding on to these rumors:

• 003 will have displacement 78,000 tons (likely standard displacement) with EM cats and conventional propulsion.
• 004 will begin construction at Dalian in the coming years, nuclear with EM cats, and the design has largely been finalized.
• 5th generation naval fighter is well under development and apparently is already undergoing testing.

If 003 indeed displaces 78,000 tons standard with a 41-metre waterline width, we can assume as much as 85,000 tons full displacement.

Let's wait for more news.

Yes, assuming he did say all of that, I would say that it's all remarkably consistent with what we've been hearing about we expected for the future trajectory of China's carrier development.

A small part of me wonders if he might have been merely repeating some open source rumours that we've had for a while, but that would seem remarkably irresponsible for someone of his status and doing so at such a public location, not to mention I couldn't exactly see the rationale for doing so either.
The reason I raise this possibility is because apparently during the presentation some slides were used that were fan made CGIs -- however I'm not sure if during the presentation it was specified as only being for illustrative purposes or not, so I'm not sure if whether use of those slides would have affected the perceived credibility of his actual verbal presentation or not.

(Middle left part of the image; seems to be one of the fan made pictures from a few years ago speculating aboutf PLAN LPD, LHD)