CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

Anlsvrthng

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It is hard to measure dimensions on something shot at perspective like that. I have to agree with @Bltizo that a carrier is the most likely fit given what we know of the Chinese naval construction program. The LHDs are supposed to be built at the same shipyards as the LPDs not JN.
By the layout of the working area it will be a floating dock that will launch the ship.

It will be unique for a carrier to launch like this.
 

Blitzo

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By the layout of the working area it will be a floating dock that will launch the ship.

It will be unique for a carrier to launch like this.

From the rumours that we've had over the last year or so, the carrier will be built as multiple hull "super blocks". The super blocks will be transported to the dry dock for final assembly with the additional modules (like for the flight deck, island, and other smaller knick knacks). The ship will then be launched from the drydock.

The QE class was constructed in a similar way, where multiple large blocks of the ship were built at different locations before being transported to the drydock for final assembly and launch.
 

Anlsvrthng

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For me the story doesn't add up.

This extension to the shipyard is enormous, as big as Newport news.

And as it looks like it is just the beginning.

If you check the latest google maps nearly every housing demolished south of the main road, and the inland waterway extended way beyond the current factory layout.
2010.jpg demolish now.jpg

If I have to guess it looks like THE manufacturing site for super sized military ships.

They have everything here, capacity and capability for military systems installed into small / medium ships, and capacity to make super sized bulk/container carriers.

But the gantry crane at the models that everyone talk about is small, only 40-45 meter wide , so a carrier flight deck will not fit there .

The modular construction makes sense if many small shipyard makes small modules that installed at a final, big drydock that lack the facilities to make the huge amount of iron .

But this is not the case this time, this is a huge investment into something.
 

Blitzo

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For me the story doesn't add up.

This extension to the shipyard is enormous, as big as Newport news.

And as it looks like it is just the beginning.

If you check the latest google maps nearly every housing demolished south of the main road, and the inland waterway extended way beyond the current factory layout.
View attachment 52200 View attachment 52201

If I have to guess it looks like THE manufacturing site for super sized military ships.

They have everything here, capacity and capability for military systems installed into small / medium ships, and capacity to make super sized bulk/container carriers.

But the gantry crane at the models that everyone talk about is small, only 40-45 meter wide , so a carrier flight deck will not fit there .

The modular construction makes sense if many small shipyard makes small modules that installed at a final, big drydock that lack the facilities to make the huge amount of iron .

But this is not the case this time, this is a huge investment into something.

They will build hull module super blocks at the current location. The hull module super blocks will then be moved to a different drydock via water where additional modules (including flight deck, island etc) will be fitted.

I don't see how that is confusing. Much of the fabrication will all be done at the same shipyard, but the final assembly will be at a drydock after the fabricated super blocks are moved there.


This photo below is one of the rare aerial ones showing the current fabrication site (right) and the expected drydock (left) where the super blocks will be assembled with each other. It's all part of one shipyard.

jn carrier workflow.jpg
 

Anlsvrthng

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This explanation is not compelling as well.

The current area where they can make warships in the middle has similar gantry capacity like the new area.
And by the google earth it has spare capacity as well.
jn carrier workflow_2.jpg
They would need buildings to fit out the superblocks, as I see the QE blocks was final assembled in closed buildings.

There is no building in the new area where you can move in the block.


jn carrier workflow_3.jpg

This area is unfinished. The green square could be the future float dock area OR dry dock with crane.
The black square something that needs closer access than the buildings to the blocks / dock.
Otherwise they could move closer the buildings to the gantry area.

Maybe something like this ?

But how they can install a crane for this layout ?
kuz_.jpg
 

Blitzo

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This explanation is not compelling as well.

The current area where they can make warships in the middle has similar gantry capacity like the new area.
And by the google earth it has spare capacity as well.
View attachment 52216
They would need buildings to fit out the superblocks, as I see the QE blocks was final assembled in closed buildings.

There is no building in the new area where you can move in the block.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that super blocks need to be constructed in buildings. Entire ships can be built without being inside fixed buildings, I'm not sure why you believe that super blocks for a carrier need to be constructed in a building either.


View attachment 52217

This area is unfinished. The green square could be the future float dock area OR dry dock with crane.
The black square something that needs closer access than the buildings to the blocks / dock.
Otherwise they could move closer the buildings to the gantry area.

Maybe something like this ?

But how they can install a crane for this layout ?
View attachment 52218

I really don't know what else to tell you.

The rumours we've had over the last year or so says that the modules being built at the current location will be formed into superblocks, before being transported to drydock halfway across the shipyard. The drydock most expected for this is drydock #4 at JN.


There are certainly a range of possible explanations for how the future shipyard may develop and where the carrier might be built (the areas you've highlighted and so on) -- but the problem is there are no rumours to suggest that will happen. Instead, the insiders have been saying we'll see the modules get built into superblocks and then transported for final assembly.
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/type-002-cv-18-carrier-news-discussions.t8048/page-178#post-511893


Are there alternative explanations that we could speculate about? Of course, absolutely.

But if we're trying to project what may actually happen over the next year or so, we should be looking at what the insiders are saying and trying to consider whether they are plausible or not.


IMO, the situation we have is simple.
Premise: insiders have been saying we'll see large modules (what I've dubbed super blocks) fabricated before being transported for final assembly at JN.
Question: based on what we are currently seeing at JN, is it still plausible/possible for the premise be the case going forwards?

If the answer is yes, then it's simple and all we need to do is wait to see progress over time, and/or if the situation changes such that it makes the premise unable to occur.
 

Anlsvrthng

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Registered Member
national-endeavour.jpg

The middle three superblocks won't fit into the newly built gantry crane. (most probably, considering 2/3 be the width of the superblock )
Of course they don't need to follow the same pattern like the QE, but the gantry in that area is way too small if the purpose of that is to make carriers. They would design that for flight deck, not for waterline.

And if they will make superblock why the the newly built pond?

yA1UeFG.jpg

They can use the main wide road south of the works area to move the superblock to the final assembly area (they built that most probably for this purpose ) , it would be way cheaper than to build a pond, water lock, floating dock and so on.

They use closed/ protected buildings to fit out the destroyers, in the middle area of the yard . Why the superblocks would be different ? They need to be fitted completely. And the QU superblock was built in building as well, see picture above.


I don't want to cause annoyance for you, but I spent 20 years from my life to design factories / production lines , and this is an interesting ride to solve , with many unexplained / illogical ( in context with the current explanations) details

And I don't expect answers, we will get them anyway : ).
 
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Blitzo

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The middle three superblocks won't fit into the newly built gantry crane. (most probably, considering 2/3 be the width of the superblock )
Of course they don't need to follow the same pattern like the QE, but the gantry in that area is way too small if the purpose of that is to make carriers. They would design that for flight deck, not for waterline.

And if they will make superblock why the the newly built pond?

yA1UeFG.jpg

They can use the main wide road south of the works area to move the superblock to the final assembly area (they built that most probably for this purpose ) , it would be way cheaper than to build a pond, water lock, floating dock and so on.


They use closed/ protected buildings to fit out the destroyers, in the middle area of the yard . Why the superblocks would be different ? They need to be fitted completely.

You may want to re-check your facts.

JNCX constructs destroyers both under fixed buildings as well as under semi mobile cover (i.e.: not buildings) before they are launched -- for example, 055 construction at JNCX is all done under mobile cover rather than under buildings. In fact most of the destroyer production at JNCX over the last few years has been done not inside the buildings, including 055 production and 052D/DG production! Also, at DL, the construction of all of their 052Ds and 055s are done openly in the drydock!

So there's no reason to expect why the super blocks would need to be constructed under a fixed building -- we have every reason to expect them to be able to build super blocks without having to be inside a building.



I don't want to cause annoyance for you, but I spent 20 years from my life to design factories / production lines , and this is an interesting ride to solve , with many unexplained / illogical ( in context with the current explanations) details :D

And I don't expect answers, we will get them anyway : ).

Look, we can speculate all we like, but I think there is a difference between speculation for the sake of speculation vs directed speculation.

I think our job should be to listen to what the insiders are saying, assess the likelihood of what they are saying, and if we judge it to be reasonable then our job is to look at whether real world events make their predictions plausible.

I believe what we're seeing at JNCX is all very reasonable for what has been predicted regarding JN's carrier's workflow.

Here's a quick and dirty annotated picture below showing what I think may happen:

Step 1: super blocks whose maximum width/beam is about 36-40m (aka the beam of the waterline hull) will be constructed at the current location we see.
Step 2: after the pond is fully dredged and finished and the various related equipment (transport barge etc) is built, we will see the "completed" super blocks get transported from the current location to drydock number 4 at JNCX. The picture shows QE class super block/hull modules being transported on barges in a similar manner to what I expect the super blocks of JN's carrier to be transported.
Step 3: at drydock number 4, the super blocks will be assembled together to form the hull of the ship, and then additional ship modules will be added (namely flight deck, island etc). Many years ago we had a model of the current JNCX shipyard, and in one of those drydocks we saw a carrier model being built. That is the drydock that is currently the top pick for where the carrier will be assembled.

workflow jn.jpg
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
You may want to re-check your facts.


It is possible scenario - nothing in the observed fact say that it can not happens like this, but it can be done without the extension.

Actually, it can be executed faster and cheaper with the available infrastructure.


And again, example the moving of the superblocks doesn't need barge to move it few kms. It can be done without the new pond, on the existing rods.
 

sealordlawrence

Junior Member
The roads would limit the width of loads to about 28-29m and the largest load moved by Self-Propelled Modular Transporters is about 15,750 tonnes. Floating docks/semi-submersible barges can move much larger modules, potentially the entire lower hull could be moved in just three or even two modules by barge.

That said, I agree, dredging out such an enormous new basin is a massive effort compared to constructing a smaller building dock (similar to those at Dalian). My assumption is they want a protected fitting out basin similar to that currently used for destroyers. The new quay being built, that runs all the way from where the modules are currently being built to the river, looks like it will be almost 1km long.
 
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