China's state media
that the country's first aircraft carrier,
Liaoning, is now "combat ready." The ship's political commissar says the ship is "preparing for actual combat at any time." Despite the tough talk, all evidence indicates that Beijing's sole flat top is likely a mere training vessel that would do very poorly in actual combat.
was commissioned into service with the People's Liberation Army Navy in 2012. Originally built for the Soviet Navy, her unfinished hull languished in a Ukrainian shipyard after the end of the Cold War. Purchased by a PLA front company under the guise of housing a casino, the hull was towed back to China where it spent nearly a decade being refitted. The carrier was modernized in a Dalian shipyard to carry 18-20
and up to a dozen helicopters.
Four years later, is
Liaoning ready for combat? Almost certainly not. China may have trained up enough pilots to man the ship's air wing (less than half the size of its American counterpart) and operate the ship, but the world of carrier operations is an extremely complex and dangerous. The ship's crew and the embarked air wing must work seamlessly to provide a ready warship capable of tackling a variety of threats. This alone took the U.S. Navy decades to accomplish, and there is no way China could achieve a similar level of proficiency in just four years.
Fighter jets and human aircrews coexisting on 4.5 acres of flight deck is not an inherently safe thing. It takes decades of developing procedures, standards, and training to make a safe, efficient carrier deck environment.
The Chinese carrier is also something of a homebody, a rarity for aircraft carriers.
Liaoning's American counterparts regularly span the globe, traveling from Virginia to the Persian Gulf, or San Diego to the South China Sea. Even
has traveled from its home base in Arctic waters all the way to the eastern Mediterranean.
By contrast
Liaoning has never ventured far from the Chinese coastline, preferring to exercise in nearby locations such as the Yellow Sea—essentially China's Gulf of Mexico. This implies the PLAN is insecure either about the crew's ability to handle the ship or the reliability of the ship's propulsion system. Either reason would be enough to declare the ship unfit for combat.
Another reason why
Liaoning is not combat ready is that according to China's
Global Times the ship is home to 1,000 noncommissioned officers and 42 petty officers whose experience in the Navy amounts to 20 years or more. These personnel are a brain trust that will be expected to teach crews manning China's
how to operate the ship. If
Liaoning were sunk in combat, the loss of these personnel would hurt even more than the loss of the ship itself.
Despite Beijing's boasting,
Liaoning is likely exactly what analysts predicted it would be—a training ship that will never stray far from the Chinese coastline.
