Current Limitations of the PLAN

a blue water navy has several variations. theres the american blue water navy, which can go any when in the world to fight any war anytime on call. and theirs the indian blue water navy, which is basically a regional navy with a carrier. i think china's blue water navy is going to range closer to indias, to cover the area as far as guam, perhaps a semisphere like that. such a fleet would not need to be huge and expensive. but multiple fleets would be needed, and the plan would need considerable restructuring.

The thing about the Indian Navy is that it has very little competition in its area. If you put a fleet with a composition like this into the East China sea, it's not going to hold. Small carrier with a small complement of fighters, a small number of destroyers and supporting ships, you could barely defend the carrier from a determined air and under sea attack.

It depends on you if you want a Navy of show or go. You want it to be a jack of all trades and a master of nothing, or be at least be a master of something if that something is defensive and green water. You got to pick something you want to be and then excel at it, and not disperse your resources into different directions. The Japanese Navy, for instance, picked to be a defensive one, and they excel at it. If the PLAN is smart, they should focus on dominance on North, East and South China seas before you would even bother with blue water. Let's add to that fact that there are many gas and oil reserves under the China seas continental shelf, and those are going are to be flash points in the future.

crobato said:

The question is why? Why do you want to make a blue water force? You don't need to grab Taiwan with a blue water force, and China does not appear to have any other military ambition other than that. How does a blue water force benefit China? What benefit does it get to play global cop? No signs China wants to do this, better lay that burden to another country's taxpayer base instead. Will a blue water navy help to feed your unborn billions in the future?

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crobato, Hi there. I'm bd popeye. I asked posted that statement.

First off I must let you know that I'm not Chinese. I'm a retired USN sailor(20 years) that just can't give up his intrest in the navies of the world. I love Asian cultures and people . In fact my ex-wife is from the Philippines.

Why a blue water navy? So the PRC can project it's power in the Pacific and Indian ocean. And as the PRC grows economically it can protect the shipping lanes.

As far as Tiawain is concerned the PRC may not need a blue water Navy for that. But if it did have to contend with the US and Japan in such a conflict thye would need a much larger, more mobile and potent force.

Feeding unborn in the future?? I see protecting commere with a blue water navy as a positive for the PRC. It can only help the PRC grow even greater economically.

This comment is interesting and certianly directed at the US..""What benefit does it get to play global cop? No signs China wants to do this, better lay that burden to another country's taxpayer base instead""..

Well the USN has been deploying it's sailors, airmne soilders and Marines worldwide for over 100 years. I see no sign that it will stop anytime soon.

which is precisely the point. In this world, there is only room for one global blue water navy. If you have two or more, it's certain to create friction and rivalries that would eventually. China is content to let the US play global cop, let the US pay for securing world peace while other countries get the benefit of such peace. That is a cynical view of things but I tend to be a cynic.

If the US needs more money to finance any potential wartime ventures, China buys more US treasury bonds. Like they did during the Iraq war, and in return, US returns its gratitude to China subtletly by allowing Chinese firms to participate in reconstruction projects and arms contracts like buying patrol boats and guns for the newly constituted Iraqi armed forces.

Much of the same argument can be said about Japan. Japan's economy is very dependent on its sealane lifelines. But Japan is content to let the US do its protection and pay its dues such as purchasing more Treasury Bonds. Japan is the leading owner of US bonds and no surprise, China is no. 2, and both lead far away from the rest of the pack.

Worldwide the US did deploy its sailors and marines for over 100 years, but not in the capacity of global cop, which was Britain's role until the end of WWII. Certainly the US conquest of Hawaii, the Philippines, Guam, Cuba and Puerto Rico via the Spanish-American War cannot be considered a global cop action. The US played its role of global cop after WWII and the sunset of the British empire as the only country still standing that could stand up to the Soviet Union. Pre-WWII, US politics are very much conservative and isolationist (it's your problem not ours), the kind that Pat Buchanan now echoes. You only need to look at some people like Joseph Kennedy (the senior Kennedy) which reflects that sort of sentiment, and why the US came quite late in WWII (end of 1941, when German and Japanese aggression began as early as 1937).

The reason why China and Japan cannot play regional cop is because of bad blood. If you have two members of one family fighting one another, you need a mediator or third person, preferably someone distant and out of the family. Naturally someone from the outside has to come in as cop and mediator, and that role has fallen to the US.

It is not in the security of China to fight the US, everyone knows that. And neither is it in the interest and security of the US to fight China. Aside from posturing, everyone knows the US and China is now too interdependent. Both countries are also politically agile and flexible enough to prevent any need to come to blows because there will be no lack of peaceful alternatives.

A large developing blue seas Chinese fleet can easily be miscontrued and that will start an arms race in the region. Soon the Japanese and Korean navies will all buff up, and ten to twenty years from now, it may reach to a point, the global cop may not have big enough muscles both military and financial to stop our future buffed up Chinese, Japanese and Korean fleets from having a go for control of all three China seas, its sealanes and vital natural resources.

Likewise, a withdrawal of US fleets from the Pacific region will also create an arms race. The Japanese will feel that they no longer have the US umbrella protecting them and will start to build up, while the Chinese will think that without the US, which served as a cap on Japanese military ambitions, there will be no cap to the Japanese, and will build up. Caught in between the two are the Koreans, who will likewise react with their own build up. And when each of them will try to protect the so called lifeblood sealanes---which are often one and the same for all these countries, you may be headed for a collision point. Another collision point is that these countries are also disputing oil and fishing rights on certain territories and islands and all three show no signs of compromising. When you get into a situation when the world starts running out of oil reserves (which may get critical in the next 20 years), the friction point on underwater oil reserves will start to rise.

The PLAN is going to get their butts kicked by the US Navy because they aren't used to combat away from their ports. Can you imagine fighting the US Navy while having to shuttle back and forth to your home ports? The PLAN is going to run out of supply ships and useful piers after a few days.

simple country bashing is not allowed

where did you get the idea that the plan will fight far from china any ways

may I remind you that taiwan is very close to china

Dart you got a point...country brashing is strickly forbidden. So don't get agitated...and klubmarcus...Now i strongly suggest you go and read the forum rules before posting anything...my temper is rising....