too back up what crobato said up there with some facts. Li Keqiang was in acquaintance with wang juntao, a student leader of 89. and Xi Jinping's father Xi Zhongxun supported Hu Yaobang during the 80s against Hu Qili and Deng Liqun. not to suggest that these two will redefine the past but it'll be interesting to see if their experience will play a role in formulating their style
Could mass layoffs in China result in a violent crackdown on unrest by the CCP?
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bladerunner
Banned Idiot
SUCH AS ?????. PLease Tell.
At one end ,one has the mainland publications, which really aren't any more objective or truthful ............but are you suggesting deflation hasnt made its appearance in China despite Quentin Sommerville's claim to have encountered evidence of it.
Futhermore I happen to think that the BBC is fairly objective when compared to alot of others.
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At least they're producing people with technical know how, regardless even if they're not the very best engineers, they're still engineers, compared to the US where we seem to be producing lawyers after lawyers after lawyers, creating a lawsuit culture, and in between them, financial management grads that fill the Wall Street firms that go the country in trouble with their pyramid investment schemes.
There are a lot of people in the US that are coming from trade schools and tech institutes too, and everyone of them is worth more than their weight in gold compared to more lawyers and financial geniuses.
There are a lot of people in the US that are coming from trade schools and tech institutes too, and everyone of them is worth more than their weight in gold compared to more lawyers and financial geniuses.
bladerunner
Banned Idiot
Quentin Sommerville may well have gone over the top, when describing, the actions of some employers as deflationary.
It is quite common in the West for firms to adopt extraordinary measures, to combat a difficult period. These consist of a shortened work week, or a early holiday. Strictly speaking this could also be classified as deflationary, China could be be doing the same.
However deflation in China could be as worrisome as it was in Japan, because the government would like its people to spend.
In a deflationary environment people have a tendency to hoard, because cash is king, and any particular product would be even cheaper later. This then defeats the purpose of pumping money into the economy. and so on and so forth.
It is quite common in the West for firms to adopt extraordinary measures, to combat a difficult period. These consist of a shortened work week, or a early holiday. Strictly speaking this could also be classified as deflationary, China could be be doing the same.
However deflation in China could be as worrisome as it was in Japan, because the government would like its people to spend.
In a deflationary environment people have a tendency to hoard, because cash is king, and any particular product would be even cheaper later. This then defeats the purpose of pumping money into the economy. and so on and so forth.
Yup, as I've said before of the current financial crisis, even with 7% in China & recession in the developed countries, it'll actually increase the rate of China's catching up in terms of GDP when one sees that it was 11% & 2-3% respectively prior to the crisis.
The so-called needing at least 8% of growth due to the large workforce size is one of the funnier 'myths' often used by many western sources. I've not seen anyone quoting any scientific studies why this is so.
Probably it has much to do with China has a habit of picking 8% as its growth estimation for as long as I can remember even when it turned out to be closer to 12%, so the western sources just 'picked' this number.
Not to mention those commentators probably know China's growth is not likely to fall too much so they pick an easy target like 8% so easier to claim 'victory' with regard to their prediction of a Chinese slowdown I guess.
Had some good laughs lately when I see some sources even claiming again without quoting any studies that China needing more than 8%, the highest I've seen is 10%.
BTW, I wouldn't worry too much about the CNN report at the top of the thread. It's nothing but regurgitation of layoff reports to fill news space really. When/if these journalist decide to do more research like coming up with numbers to compare the current layoffs with the past, then I'll pay attention.
Absolutely correct Schmacher
The idea that 8% is some sort of magic number (did somebody actually write tipping point:rofl
is really quite funny. When would the country crash into flames, 7.9999999999% or 7.9999999998%?It is true that if you want to create x number of new jobs in y number of years and for these jobs to enjoy z income value, you need to have a certain average level of growth and 8% pa could easily be that figure. It is however an average over decades and as China as over achieved between 25% and 40% annually over the last 30 years I think it probably has a little bit of slack.
An average future rate now of 7% would simply mean China doubling the size of its economy to $6.5Trn pa by 2020 rather than 2015 at current levels.
Mr T
Senior Member
Then you can't know much about economics. How many developed nations can you name that have had 7% growth for a sustained period of time and not suffered from boom-and-bust? China is a developing economy so it should be expected to have much higher growth.
I thought that China engaged in a restrained security operation that respected Tibetans' human rights. Are you saying that actually it engaged in brutal suppression?
Of course you can. You can say that they're undermining the stock market, spreading rumours, sabotaging this and that, making unfair pay and work demands, illegally striking, encouraging other countries to engage in protectionism. You can say whatever you like - it just depends on whether people will believe you.
Are they calling for the victims to be rehabilitated and for the crooks who supported/carried out the crackdown to be denounced?
Like Qatar with a population of under 1 million?
China has a huge population so clearly has far more new entrants to its work force every year than most other nations.
No, but in a lot of countries they have the ability to vote out incompetant leaders. In China you can starve or riot. And even in democracies you get unrest when times are bad.
Why would you quote a scientific study if an article is merely commenting on what the Chinese government believes it needs? Are you accusing these publications of lying and that the Chinese government has no "minimum growth" projection?
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Schumacher
Senior Member
The Chinese government has a habit of describing publicly that their economic tasks as 'arduous', especially PM Wen, even at the best of times like last few years be it inflation, environment, energy security & now jobs creation. I guess it's just their political style not to gloat & be on alert most all the time. I'd hope any 'analysts'/'journalist' writing any report worth more than the paper on which it's written would do far more than just picking up public statements from the government.
I wouldn't so much accuse the publications of lying, it's more like wishful thinking & laziness, especially those that predict extremes like 'mass unrest' etc. They 'wish' to present a certain angle, then proceed to find 'news' to 'support' it like regurgitating news of layoffs.
Of course the government has projections & sometimes they miss sometimes they overshoot. They deal with it just like any other economies. I haven't seen anything to suggest it'll lead to some of the extreme consequences predicted in the western press, regurgitation of layoff news & photos may work on some gullible ones but I think most will need some good research like layoff numbers etc to be convinced.
Mr T
Senior Member
So you're saying that they exaggerate the job they have so they'll look good when things don't come true? Seems rather manipulative to me, to knock economic confidence just to look good later.
If they are quoting the government to indicate what the government thinks, what else can they do? Doubt everything they say? Are there contradictory reports that you can show they could have easily used - do you expect them to commission expensive research every time the Chinese government comes up with gloomy economic data/statements?
How can that be the case just by reporting a government's view?
You may dispute that growth of under 8% would lead to mass unrest, but the link between economic trouble and riots/protests is clear. It happens all around the world and has happened in Chinese history. Think back to the 1980s.
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Then you can't know much about economics. How many developed nations can you name that have had 7% growth for a sustained period of time and not suffered from boom-and-bust? China is a developing economy so it should be expected to have much higher growth.
that's not much an economic knowledge you have described there,its called history. and no what you have described there cannot be a valid argument for why you think China will somehow fail and the west will remain the dominant power...
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