Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[vesicles]

Hopefully, contagion during the asymptomatic incubation period won't be a big problem after all:

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February update, daily (cumulative):

2/1: confirmed 2,590 (14,380), suspected 4,562 (19,544*), severe case 315 (2,110), death 45 (304), cured 85 (328), under observation: 137,594 nation-wide
2/2: confirmed 2,829 (17,205), suspected 5,173 (21,558*), severe case 186 (2,296), death 57 (361), cured 147 (475), under observation: 152,700 nation-wide
2/3: confirmed 3,235 (20,438), suspected 5,072 (23,214*), severe case 492 (2,788), death 64 (425), cured 157 (634), under observation: 171,329 nation-wide
2/4: confirmed 3,887 (24,324), suspected 3,971 (23,260*), severe case 431 (3,219), death 65 (490), cured 262 (892), under observation: 185,555 nation-wide
2/5: confirmed 3,694 (28,018), suspected 5,328 (24,702*), severe case 640 (3,859), death 73 (563), cured 261 (1,153), under observation: 186,354 nation-wide

*cumulative suspected = cumulative suspected on the previous day + daily suspected – those who tested positive or negative on the same day

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Comment: confirmed case decreased day-to-day for the first time since 1/28.

This is exactly the kind of information that we should focus on and discuss. I’m talking about responsible and unbiased professionals analyze facts with expert knowledge, cool heads and a willingness to admit it when they are wrong. Most admirable!

 

[localizer]

I had my suspicions about the no symptom contagion because it's all anecdotal and dependent on people reporting things. And people are afraid of saying the wrong things.

I knew that people are afraid to say that they had symptoms.

I suspect some of those people that "did not go to China" might actually have went and just lied about it.



New England Journal has fallen so hard. The Germans are trying to screw Chinese again. F them.

 

[vesicles]

New England Journal has fallen so hard. The Germans are trying to screw Chinese again. F them.

I honestly don’t think NEJM has fallen at all. As a matter of fact, I believe this should be one of their high moments.

Everybody makes mistakes. This kind of mistakes happen all the time even with the best journals. NEJM is no exception.

The admirable and the correct thing that they did was that they published the letter criticizing their earlier publication. They did it openly and with no intention to hide. In fact, most good peer reviewed journals do the same. They would publish any studies that disagree and/or criticize their earlier studies. This is indeed what science is all about.

Everybody makes mistakes. The important thing is what you do after that. I applaud NEJM and firmly believe that they have upheld their high reputation.

 

[Blitzo]

I honestly don’t think NEJM has fallen at all. As a matter of fact, I believe this should be one of their high moments.

Everybody makes mistakes. This kind of mistakes happen all the time even with the best journals. NEJM is no exception.

The admirable and the correct thing that they did was that they published the letter criticizing their earlier publication. They did it openly and with no intention to hide. In fact, most good peer reviewed journals do the same. They would publish any studies that disagree and/or criticize their earlier studies. This is indeed what science is all about.

Everybody makes mistakes. The important thing is what you do after that. I applaud NEJM and firmly believe that they have upheld their high reputation.

I agree, I don't think there was any malicious intent in the research and publication process. Seeing as it was published in the middle of an understood epidemic they published it earlier rather than later which was a mistake, but at the their own conclusion at the time likely alarmed them and felt like it was important to get it out there as it might have a role in altering the way that health systems would respond.


New information is still coming through and it is inevitable that information that was thought to be correct one day might be completely turned on its head merely a few days later (or even hours later). That is fine and normal.

 

[shanlung]

What we all witnessing now is the first phase. The starting point of 2019 new corona virus in Wuhan and China.
And we seen the response made in quarantining and incredible speed of organising and building hospitals and facilities in holding and treatment.
And may in time, hold and halt this virus totally in China.
We also see the mocking and laughters and demonising of China's efforts , despicable cartoons in guise of free speech to laugh and the taking advantage of this to further rub the face of China in the mud.

BUT

The next phase is inevitable. Not that I wish for that to happen, but happen that will be.

That virus is now already in many countries and with the fore warnings given by China. Despit the warnings, are those countries capable and able and have the dedicated expertise shown by China in containing and holding and treating this virus? Can USA, or any other country , build hospitals from bare fields and equipt that in a matter of days?

Perhaps so, but sadly, not to the extent demonstrated by China.

In the days and weeks to come, that virus will be spreading and spreading in USA, in Denmark, in Europe , in Africa , India and Australia.
Chinese and China and all decent folks will sorrow and pray for them and help them best they can in USA, Denmark and others .
And maybe, hopefully, the insults and savage mockery they shown to China will stop as they all desperately trying not to be sick and die themselves.

Chinese and China and all decent folks will not be mocking and laughing and taking advantage or insulting them the way USA, Denmark and others had done and still doing to China in the initial crisis.


We will wait , and see.

Phase 2 is just starting.

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[localizer]

I honestly don’t think NEJM has fallen at all. As a matter of fact, I believe this should be one of their high moments.

Everybody makes mistakes. This kind of mistakes happen all the time even with the best journals. NEJM is no exception.

The admirable and the correct thing that they did was that they published the letter criticizing their earlier publication. They did it openly and with no intention to hide. In fact, most good peer reviewed journals do the same. They would publish any studies that disagree and/or criticize their earlier studies. This is indeed what science is all about.

Everybody makes mistakes. The important thing is what you do after that. I applaud NEJM and firmly believe that they have upheld their high reputation.

From the article:

But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.”

That kind of mistake/excuse would not fly in any journal I've submitted to.

 

[vesicles]

From the article:


That kind of mistake/excuse would not fly in any journal I've submitted to.

Well, it was a mistake. No doubt about that. They clearly stated that in their manuscript. It passed the peer review and got accepted for publication. The reviewers might’ve thought that, given the chaotic situation, the short time, and more importantly the urgent message, they decided to allow acceptance. This is actually perfectly acceptable.

I have been a reviewer for many journals. A lot of times, I point out the shortcomings of a manuscript, while still acknowledging that it would be logistically impossible for the authors to complete my requests. In that case, I would ask the authors to first acknowledge their own shortcomings and discuss potential future experiments and implications in their Discussion section. If they do a good job explaining, I would allow acceptance.

When I was a postdoc several years ago, we submitted a manuscript to Science with me as the lead author. One of the reviewers kept asking us to verify one thing. We kept explaining to them that it was physically impossible to verify since no technique in existence could do that. We had done other experiments to indirectly verify it. But the reviewer would not let go. The senior editor of Science finally weighed in and told us to acknowledge that we can’t directly verify one thing in our experiments because of technical limitations. When we did that, our manuscript got accepted. This happens a lot. Keep in mind that we are in the real world, where it would be better if we can show certain things but unfortunately cannot because we lack tools or other logistical means. You need to be strict but at the same time appreciate the real world difficulties.

 

[localizer]

Well it certainly has caused much fear and damage to Chinese society. Hope people become more cautious in future pandemics..



I hate reviewing papers these days . So much embellished data.

 

[localizer]

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Coronavirus hate attack: Woman in face mask allegedly assaulted by man who calls her 'diseased'
The New York City Police Department's task force on hate crimes is seeking the public's help in identifying the man seen in a video apparently punching and kicking the woman.

A man attacks a woman who was wearing a face mask in the New York City subway.via NYPD Hate Crimes


Feb. 5, 2020, 1:34 PM EST / Updated Feb. 5, 2020, 4:38 PM EST
By David K. Li


A woman wearing a face mask was allegedly assaulted and called "diseased" in an incident in a New York City subway that was apparently sparked by bias over the coronavirus.

The New York City Police Department's hate crimes unit is seeking the public's help in identifying the man who appears to be kicking and punching the woman in a video posted on Twitter.


"The NYPD and the Hate Crimes Task Force encourage the victim to report this incident to the police for a full investigation," the task force said in its retweet of a post with the video, captioned, "Chinese woman gets attacked for wearing a mask in nyc."

Not sure if good idea:

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 6:58 AM

Yesterday at 7:48 AM
... and it's even more! 24539

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from the new parabola (10^(-0.0028*19^2+0.16699*19+2.28651)), it'd be 28088 tomorrow (February 6)

... and is 28262 according to

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10^(-0.00277*20^2+0.1662*20+2.29192) = 32205 for tomorrow (Feb 7 -- I got unsettled by this and typed "Jan 7" in the graph)