Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
localizer said:
Nah they would never risk another outbreak.

Also, testing on thousands of medical workers would be larger dataset.
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You won't get another outbreak from deliberately infecting a subset of Phase 2 volunteers with the vaccine.

They'll be monitored all the time in one of the COVID-19 hospitals anyway.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Today at 12:05 PM
Jura said:
in response to someone in some other thread I posted Mar 26, 2020


it sounded like a lot at that time to me (apparently not to the other guy though), and sixteen (16) days later they'll likely have 1k dead in one day:
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EDIT now noticed it'd mean 10k dead in total reached today

Last updated: April 11, 2020, 09:56 GMT

tn_uk-flag.gif

United Kingdom

Coronavirus Cases:
73,758

Deaths:
8,958
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and it's less according to Last updated: April 11, 2020, 15:39 GMT
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
superdog said:
My point was simply that placebo control allows for more reliable measure of the various physiological effects of the vaccine, so that's not "nothing" to be gained.
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I don't know what that means; that sounds like diplomatic language for "everything has a purpose." Specifically, what do you expect to be looking for in individuals injected with saline in terms of phase 2 safety and what would your conclusion be?
superdog said:
There has been many cases of young people dying from COVID-19, the reported fatality rate may be low (around 0.2% for age groups under 39) but shouldn't be regarded as "nearly zero". Not to mention there are also those who survived with permanent organ damage. With a few hundred subjects, you will very likely kill some people and permanently cripple some others. Phase III actually require thousands if not tens of thousands of subjects, results obtained by tracking their natural infection rate, not by intentionally giving them the virus.

On the other hand, if you only do it on a handful of subjects, you won't have enough statistical data to calculate efficacy. Without large scale clinical trials you also risk missing fatal side effects which could result in massive death tolls comparable to that of COVID-19 when vaccination was applied to the entire population.
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0.2% is nearly 0, and that is under the circumstances of free-living conditions where people don't go to the hospital at the faintest symptom. If you selected a group of healthy people aged 18-23 and had them in a heavily monitored bio-containment hospital, I'd bet you'd get nothing extreme happening to any of them. The threshold of statistical significance is generally regarded as just over 30 for an experiment like this; you're talking about hundreds because that is what is needed for a normal phase 3 in which they are all released to live their lives and are periodically checked-in on to see if anybody randomly contracted the virus.
superdog said:
As for the news you quoted, they're not hiring volunteers to be infected with COVID-19, they specifically said it'd be a safer type of coronavirus. There are very tame types of coronavirus out there, some only causes common cold.
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Here's another one:
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I'm not saying we are there yet and need to jump in with whatever is on hand as I haven't been following with how far each company/entity has gotten with their vaccine but I don't agree with the statement that no ethics committee would or should ever approve human challenge trials. Remember, while being incredibly focused on protecting the health 30 young individuals down to the hair, people are dying by the tens of thousands out there. And there are very poor young guys who don't really stand a chance in upward mobility who wouldn't mind risking blowing a lung if they get paid a house in the city for it. I know this sounds like exploiting the poor but if I was 22, broke, and without education, you bet I'd take a house to be in this trial.
 
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localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
You won't get another outbreak from deliberately infecting a subset of Phase 2 volunteers with the vaccine.

They'll be monitored all the time in one of the COVID-19 hospitals anyway.
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No volunteer will risk that because the vaccine might not work. Phase 2 is just to show there's good immune response in humans.

The phase 2 trial mentioned is for a specific antigen, thus it is even more likely to fail when compared to a live kill or attenuated vaccine.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Today at 6:01 PM
Jura said:
Clipboard617.jpg


what a fluff! created earlier this year in the US to kid itself:
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would be laughable, but it's dangerous and tragic piece of "information" (I've now checked Spain scored 15th, Italy 31th)
actually it's disgusting!

I've now found this - through
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and while I had been in the bathtub, the US surpassed 20k deaths level meaning


Last updated: April 11, 2020, 17:26 GMT
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am waiting for Michigan
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
manqiangrexue said:
I don't know what that means; that sounds like diplomatic language for "everything has a purpose." Specifically, what do you expect to be looking for in individuals injected with saline in terms of phase 2 safety and what would your conclusion be?

0.2% is nearly 0, and that is under the circumstances of free-living conditions where people don't go to the hospital at the faintest symptom. If you selected a group of healthy people aged 18-23 and had them in a heavily monitored bio-containment hospital, I'd bet you'd get nothing extreme happening to any of them. The threshold of statistical significance is generally regarded as just over 30 for an experiment like this; you're talking about hundreds because that is what is needed for a normal phase 3 in which they are all released to live their lives and are periodically checked-in on to see if anybody randomly contracted the virus.
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I’m not in the medical field, but I believe this phase of the trial is to make sure the vaccine is safe before injecting thousands with it. You are looking adverse effects, and you want a control group to make sure the adverse effects aren’t psychological
 
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