Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Tam]

I think the only way out of this is natural exposure and herd immunity. When OC43 struck in 1889 and H1N1 struck in 1918, the population was exposed quickly, developed herd immunity, and pandemic was over within 2 years. Without natural immunity which constantly boosts the immune system, and I'm talking about exposure to the virus on a daily basis, it would take a long time for a pandemic to transition to endemic.

Vaccine won't get you out of this pandemic, not with a virus like a common cold or flu. The only way out is daily exposure to the virus. Only sustained herd immunity can keep people from hospitalization and death.

Pandemic of 1918 may have longer lasting consequences that led to the economic disasters the years after. Decline of population growth. Decline of business and investment activity and growth. Decline in productivity. Decline in the availability of basic goods, leading to inflation where the supply of commodities is contracted against a high money supply.

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If vaccines won't protect you, neither will natural immunity. These are only both the same road to inspire the body to create antibodies, with vaccines allowing you a more controlled, preemptive path to immunity without getting sick and letting Charles Darwin handle the rest.

It is not demonstrated that people that have recovered from covid is shown to be less vulnerable than those that have been vaccinated. In fact, the opposite has been true. We also have people with long covid, this means the people never sufficiently recover from the disease, or the disease remains in them for a longer extended period of time, allowing the virus to mutate around the body's defenses.

If these people want natural or evolutionary determined immunity, then these people should stop taking Ivermectin or any quack medicine.

 

[KYli]

Many Singaporeans are losing faith in the reopening and mRNA. They took matter in their own hands and inoculated with Sinopharm or Sinovac as booster.

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As I have predicted, it just takes a little longer for the covid cases to rise again in the UK. I think Canada should take it as a lesson.

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[KYli]

Here in Canada we don't care about case numbers. We only care about hospitalizations and deaths. As long as these are manageable we don't care about how many get infected.

More infections, more hospitalizations, and more deaths. Why do you think Singapore has tightened up again? Hospital is at 90% capacity and ICU is at 2/3 full.

 

[OppositeDay]

Yikes. Half the people dead of covid in Singapore at the latest report were FULLY vaccinated. If vaccines won't fix this, then China is doomed to remain isolated and with sporadic lockdowns forever.

Nothing TOO suspicious about the data. Assuming a 83% full vaccination rate, no one has taken only one shot and a 80% efficacy at preventing death, we can expect roughly half of the dead to be fully vaccinated. Counting in people with only one dose, that people who're not vaccinated might have conditions that prevent them from leaving home etc, the number looks reasonably even if the efficacy is higher.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Nothing TOO suspicious about the data. Assuming a 83% full vaccination rate, no one has taken only one shot and a 80% efficacy at preventing death, we can expect roughly half of the dead to be fully vaccinated. Counting in people with only one dose, that people who're not vaccinated might have conditions that prevent them from leaving home etc, the number looks reasonably even if the efficacy is higher.

I guess one option is for China to really push for a 95% or higher vaccination rate and then open up, accepting that there will be a lot of deaths but that the death rate will be lower than it would have been if it had been allowed to spread uncontrolled from the beginning. The alternative is to find a permanent way to work around the travel restrictions imposed by a Zero Covid strategy, because there needs to be some business travel and travel by students, tourists, etc. for economic and social reasons.

 

[Tam]

Wrong. Millions of Canadians get rhinovirus infection every year. Very few hospitalizations. Even fewer deaths. The more infections, the more boosted is immune system, the less danger. More infections is highly desirable.

Or the other way can happen --- a new rhinovirus mutation can suddenly come out from nowhere that can be deadly as covid.

We are not really immune to rhinovirus which is why it persists as the common cold, year by year, killing thousands of Canadians.

We are alive not because of our immune system, but because the rhinovirus lets us live, and finds it desirable in the evolutionary sense, to let us live. Its for the same reason why we raise pigs and cattle. Food. We are the food supply.

Coronaviruses has been around as early as 23,000 BC. Around 15% of common colds are caused by various coronavirus, so you are likely to be already infected by a family member of such at one time in your life. The flu vaccine includes dead members of these family. Despite the millennia, we are never immune to it and a random deadly mutation will arise out of all the probabilities.

A virus is like that password breaking algorithm that is trying to break that password, trying out as many possible combinations as it can in a short period of time. Then it hits the jackpot.

 

[OppositeDay]

Chinese cities are rolling out booster shots to the general public.

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The policy at the moment is no heterologous booster shot. Conservative yes, but justifiably so. A Sinopharm exec was on CCTV saying they can produce 8 billion (!) doses of inactivated covid-19 vaccines a year, so plenty of those for third, fourth or even fifth shots.

 

[Tam]

Coronavirus evolves faster than flu virus. Mutation rate is slower than A but about the same as B. However, coronavirus frequently recombines and shifts. So it evolves faster.

Whoever evolves faster will win the evolution race. However, the human race evolves only very so slowly when you compare our generational rates vs. a virus.

Our immune system does not "evolve". It works like a modern day electronic warfare system. It gets a sample of the target and keeps that sample into its memory database. When an attack happens, the EW system takes the threat signal and matches it to the database. Once the signal is identified to be a threat, it activates a series of measures designed to handle that threat. Do you know why decoy systems comes in a pallet? Decoy systems have many chaff, foils and jammers to choose from, but it needs to match the right one for the threat.

So a vaccine is essentially like providing our EW systems with an advanced sample or copy of the threat through signal intelligence (ELINT), instead of discovering the nature of the threat signal the hard way in the midst of a real battle, a condition that can make you lose, your plane shot down or your ship sunk.

Also, my understanding is that rhinoviruses are RNA viruses while covid is DNA virus. The RNA virus mutates faster and covid is actually relatively stable when compared to other viruses.

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[Tam]

Humans unlike other animals have brilliant intelligence, language, science. They can counter with vaccine. However, virus will also evolve new ways to counter. The 1 billion years old arms race between animals and viruses is only onto round number 2,042,196. Grab the popcorns and enjoy the show. It's just getting started.

Viruses are technically not alive, but they work like computer algorithms, which has the appearance of being intelligent (artificial intelligence) but isn't.

You are up against something that combines and recombines endlessly, eternally.

This does not mean you give up and let "natural" immunity handle it because our bodies are far less intelligent than our brains.

 

[winword]

Even atoms are intelligent. Hell, maybe even quarks. You think you are so intelligent. You are not.

You can claim whatever you want as long as you back it up with proof. If you can't prove it you need to stop talking.