Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[manqiangrexue]

Man that guy says the most useless crap. " no idea what countries I support & what countries I oppose" "average, some of the Chinese people's own IQ increases it while the IQ of other Chinese brings it down"

In other news, sky is blue and hemorrhoids suck.

Still better than when he says wrong crap like, "If I get the flu, I'm 100% sure I'll be ok but if I get this Wuhan virus, there's a 20% chance I'll die!" Takes education to say useful things; those who don't have it can only say 1. useless things and 2. wrong things.

 

[Blitzo]

Wow it really takes so little to set you guys off eh? A couple of post off a extreme left/right site in the US and all of a sudden its fire and brimstone.
It is what it is, meaningless posts from anonymous people who has way to much time and an axe to grind.
And really it actually takes some effort to look up these fringe forums. This sort of pettiness and reaction is precisely why people has a negative perception regarding Chinese maturity at times.
It is like you guys are actively looking for such things to get upset.

Lol no that's just Adiru.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Get back to topic please.

 

[supercat]

Andy here's what happens if also the points you wanted are included:

the top asymptote is 72551 (!) with the standard error of 9988

for the other model
Yesterday at 6:45 PM
it's 46399 with the standard error of 1690

so maybe you'll become famous Andy -- in The Lancet they indeed said
"We estimated that 75815 individuals (95% CrI 37304–130330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

EDIT but I say it'll be less than 50k

I have no doubt about your model. But the parameters - aren't they a little bit arbitrary? Isn't the whole exercise a little bit like the modeling in economics - it's mostly guesstimate and "art" instead of hard science?


February update, daily (cumulative):

2/1: confirmed 2,590 (14,380), suspected 4,562 (19,544*), severe case 315 (2,110), death 45 (304), cured 85 (328), under observation: 137,594 nation-wide
2/2: confirmed 2,829 (17,205), suspected 5,173 (21,558*), severe case 186 (2,296), death 57 (361), cured 147 (475), under observation: 152,700 nation-wide
2/3: confirmed 3,235 (20,438), suspected 5,072 (23,214*), severe case 492 (2,788), death 64 (425), cured 157 (634), under observation: 171,329 nation-wide
2/4: confirmed 3,887 (24,324), suspected 3,971 (23,260*), severe case 431 (3,219), death 65 (490), cured 262 (892), under observation: 185,555 nation-wide
2/5: confirmed 3,694 (28,018), suspected 5,328 (24,702*), severe case 640 (3,859), death 73 (563), cured 261 (1,153), under observation: 186,354 nation-wide
2/6: confirmed 3,143 (31,161), suspected 4,833 (26,359*), severe case 962 (4,821), death 73 (636), cured 387 (1,540), under observation: 186,045 nation-wide
2/7: confirmed 3,399 (34,546), suspected 4,214 (27,657*), severe case 1,280 (6,101), death 86 (722), cured 510 (2,050), under observation: 189,660 nation-wide
2/8: confirmed 2,656 (37,198), suspected 3,916 (28,942*), severe case 87 (6,188), death 89 (811), cured 600 (2,649), under observation: 188,183 nation-wide
2/9: confirmed 3,062 (40,171), suspected 4,008 (23,589*), severe case 296 (6,484), death 97 (908), cured 632 (3,281), under observation: 187,518 nation-wide
2/10: confirmed 2,478 (42,638), suspected 3,536 (21,675*), severe case 849 (7,333), death 108 (1,016), cured 716 (3,996), under observation: 187,728 nation-wide

*cumulative suspected = cumulative suspected on the previous day + daily suspected – those who tested positive or negative on the same day (my personal unofficial interpretation)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Comment: the newly confirmed decreased more than 500 on 2/10 from 2/9, while the suspected decreased more than 7,000 on 2/10 from 2/8

 

[supercat]

Hubei removes director and Party secretary of provincial health commission from posts

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Novel coronavirus vaccine: Animal tests started
Updated 07:56, 11-Feb-2020
By Wu Lei & Li Jian
02:37

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China, scientists from various pharmaceutical companies and other institutions have tried to create a vaccine to stop its spread. Recently, a Shanghai company produced samples of a new vaccine which has just been tested on animals.

Animal testing is a must for any vaccine before it's put to public use. Researchers at Tongji University in Shanghai are using these healthy mice to test some of the latest coronavirus vaccine samples.

Liu Zhongmin, president of Shanghai East Hospital under the Tongji University School of Medicine, told CGTN that mouse testing is just a preliminary screening for candidate vaccines. After searching through effective antibodies against this virus, the candidate vaccine will continue onto a toxicological test, which will need larger animals such as monkeys. That will allow us to gauge the safety of the vaccines before applying for clinical testing.

After being injected, the mice will be labelled and taken care of in labs.

President Liu said a total of over a hundred mice will be needed to perform the testing on Sunday.

Animal testing is another step forward for developing a real vaccine. To guarantee its objectivity, animal tests with the same vaccine samples are also conducted simultaneously at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing.

Scientists say it will take several days to see whether these mice will produce antibodies to prevent the virus.

President Liu said this kind of mRNA-based vaccine is one of the most advanced and unique vaccine production technologies, and it has a shorter preparation time and higher efficiency.

These vaccines are co-designed and developed by China CDC, Tongji University and a Shanghai vaccine company. After getting the antigen from China's CDC in late January, Dr. Li Hangwen and his team have spent two weeks producing these multiple types of m-RNA vaccine samples.

Dr. Li Hangwen, CEO of Stemirna Therapeutics LLC told CGTN that they have prepared nine to 12 different antigens for the vaccine samples in animal testing.

Dr. Li said if the animal test fails, they have to redesign and optimize and improve the formulation of the vaccine.

At present, dozens of domestic and global companies and institutions have invested huge amounts of money and time into creating a vaccine for this novel coronavirus.

Dr. Li said generally a vaccine needs to pass three steps of clinical testing. The period of time may last from several months to several years based on the testing period and test patients.

A real effective vaccine has to undergo rigorous testing before being put to public use.

If the animal tests go well, Dr. Li hopes they can begin further clinical trials as early as April. Although people want a cure that ultimately ends the coronavirus epidemic soon, scientists say effective vaccines must undergo rigorous testing before being put to public use.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[localizer]

^ Regarding the mRNA vaccine

Currently no mRNA vaccine has reached phase 3 clinical trial. Also, the field has yet to develop a mass production method.

The conventional vaccines will most likely be approved first.

 

[localizer]

Still better than when he says wrong crap like, "If I get the flu, I'm 100% sure I'll be ok but if I get this Wuhan virus, there's a 20% chance I'll die!" Takes education to say useful things; those who don't have it can only say 1. useless things and 2. wrong things.

It's very much like this tweet:

 

[shanlung]

I think they just said it doesn't spread by aerosol. Droplets yes.

Really?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[localizer]

Really?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

SINGAPORE: There is no evidence the novel coronavirus is passed on through aerosol transmission, the Ministry of Health (MOH) said on Monday (Feb 10) as it gave an update on the coronavirus situation in Singapore.

The ministry said it looked into reports the virus could be transmitted through aerosol, but that there was currently no indication this could happen.


"Based on evidence available in China, an expert from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has said that there is currently no evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosol," said MOH.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The currently known transmission routes of the virus are via respiratory droplets and physical contact, it said.

“Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts,” China Daily reported Zeng Qun, deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau, as saying.

Inhalation vs can travel through air is different i think?

 

[manqiangrexue]

yes you definitely have low IQ, when did I ever say the death rate is 20%? back then I only said the total percentage of those who are in critical condition & those who are dead is 20% "either dead or on death's doors".
frankly I think you should change your profile picture, you are shaming that flag because people might think all Chinese are as ignorant as you are.

First of all, I like how you omitted the first part when you are obviously wrong and went to the second part thinking you could salvage it. But unfortunately, you are uneducated and so you just repeated what you said, which is incorrect. 20% at death's doors even by the most generous measure of hospitalization rate (which is incorrect because staying at the hospital doesn't mean you're at death's door) is still wrong. You don't realize the difference between confirmed infected cases and estimated true infection rate. You don't know that when the confirmed cases are in the tens of thousands, then the estimated true infected population is easily in the millions/tens of millions.

Yeah... I have low IQ. Everybody who's educated in virology and epidemiology with doctorate degrees who say correct things have low IQ. You, with no degrees making all incorrect claims from your uneducated logic led by an inability to filter media are the one with high IQ LOL. You think everyone else is stupid and everyone thinks you're stupid; that's how you live life. That's what deep Southerners think. "Fergit you and yer fancy Harvard crap. I don't need to edjumacation; it's all up here." Points to his head with one of the 3 fingers left on his hand.

Please, for your own sake, ask a doctor. Don't try to "science" it out by yourself.