Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Jura The idiot]

As you say yourself, if there is a new source, the model becomes useless.

That also applies to a significant change in any of the variables:

eg. Mass quarantine beginning Jan 24.

Andy here's what happens if also the points you wanted are included:

the top asymptote is 72551 (!) with the standard error of 9988

for the other model
Yesterday at 6:45 PM
it's 46399 with the standard error of 1690

so maybe you'll become famous Andy -- in The Lancet they indeed said
"We estimated that 75815 individuals (95% CrI 37304–130330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020."

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EDIT but I say it'll be less than 50k

 

[obj 705A]

while I'm certainly not a fan of Xi Jinping & I've probably already made that clear, however I believe this is definitly not the right time to argue about political issues , I won't become a China hater just because some clueless members here have no idea about my views, the country is now in the middle of a major health crisis, all other issues wether it's political or anything can (& have to) wait, just as how we all (on personal levels) go through a period in life where we face major problems till eventually they get solved & we forget about them, hopefully this coronavirus will also become just a small stain in the long history of China.

 

[Dolcevita]

One more thing: let's not forget that the lock down happened just before Chinese New Year. Those who left before were leaving to return home to spend New Year with their families.

It's easy for people to say now that the authorities should have locked down Wuhan earlier, but you don't make the decision to prevent millions of people from seeing their families lightly. If the authorities ordered a lock down and it had turned out that the virus wasn't a big deal, the authorities would have been heavily attacked for "tyrannical abuse of power and violation of human rights".

In hindsight, anyone can be a genius. More to build ego and compensate for lack of self confidence.

 

[Brumby]

Shanghai follows Beijing's lead by imposing lock down.


Shanghai, Chongqing also locked down as Wuhan virus spreads

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After

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it was going into lockdown to try and contain the Wuhan virus on Sunday (Feb. 9), Shanghai on Monday (Feb. 10) followed suit and said it is also implementing "closed-off management" (封閉式管理) measures for communities in the city.

 

[Chish]

I'm afraid it is more complicated. There is a thing called "performance legitimacy in China." The CCP has to deliver both material and psychological (ideational) benefits to the citizens in order for the citizens to identify positively with the CCP's political goals. However the CCP is managed by human beings, and humans make mistakes. The worst mistake would be to make a small mistake, refuse to acknowledge, and subsequently cover up when everyone already knows. When such behaviors become standard practice within a bureaucracy, that's how you lose your credibility as a ruler.

Why are you playing politics at this time of epidemic?

 

[manqiangrexue]

while I'm certainly not a fan of Xi Jinping & I've probably already made that clear, however I believe this is definitly not the right time to argue about political issues , I won't become a China hater just because some clueless members here have no idea about my views,

So much oral diarrhea... "It's definitely not the right time to talk about X and I don't wanna say anything about it, but let me just say this about X..."

the country is now in the middle of a major health crisis, all other issues wether it's political or anything can (& have to) wait, just as how we all (on personal levels) go through a period in life where we face major problems till eventually they get solved & we forget about them, hopefully this coronavirus will also become just a small stain in the long history of China.

"... and then add a bunch of meaningless crap that's technically on topic to make it look like I wasn't just here to talk about X."

 

[shanlung]

From just one guy. Imagine more than just one guy in the West. Or in Africa.

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[AndrewS]

Hubei

If you look at the latest 2day average for new infections, we're now in the 4th/5th day of a sustained downwards trend in new cases.
We also saw the first drop in "suspected cases" in Hubei yesterday.

Outside Hubei

We're now in the 6th/7th day with daily declines of confirmed cases.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Not good news. Guys over at PeakOil energy forums saying this is essentially the end of China, CCP and Xi

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The most ridiculous claim of the millennium. China would be a dead man walking; if was still walking. It is shutdown, and the rest of the world wants nothing to do with it. As this virus reemerges time and time again, it never will again. This virus can be contracted over and over again. China can now be erased from the map. "And there there be dragons".

You know this is the exact reason you got slapped with a ban in the first place right ? No conspiracy theory peddling, the rule made it very clear.

 

[AndrewS]

Andy here's what happens if also the points you wanted are included:

the top asymptote is 72551 (!) with the standard error of 9988

for the other model
Yesterday at 6:45 PM
it's 46399 with the standard error of 1690

so maybe you'll become famous Andy -- in The Lancet they indeed said
"We estimated that 75815 individuals (95% CrI 37304–130330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

EDIT but I say it'll be less than 50k

You've got 72551 as the total infected, circa March 24.

The Lancet paper estimated 75815 as of Jan 25.
I can believe that to be the case, from what we've seen in the non-Hubei cases .

---

But given the virus symptoms are so mild in the majority of people, and so similar to the common cold or flu, It probably will be impossible to wipe out entirely. The death rates look comparable to a seasonal flu that happens every year as well.

So 1-2 years time, once there is a vaccine, it'll just be one more strain of "seasonal flu" to watch out for.