Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[supercat]

In the rest of China its seems that the infection rates are going down while recovery rates are going up. Except in Wuhan there the situation continues to escalate. Wuhan is responsible for more than 75% of all deaths. Is there a reason ? What makes Wuhan special ? I know its the epicenter but shouldn't things improve there as well.

I suspected very mild and mild cases were massively under-reported in Wuhan in the earlier weeks. Exaggerated mortality rate caused by under-reported cases in the early stage of an epidemic is a common occurrence. Wuhan, as a newly designated 1st-tier city, should have relatively good healthcare institutions. It is being overwhelmed currently, but the situation will improve as time goes by.


February update, daily (cumulative):

2/1: confirmed 2,590 (14,380), suspected 4,562 (19,544*), severe case 315 (2,110), death 45 (304), cured 85 (328), under observation: 137,594 nation-wide
2/2: confirmed 2,829 (17,205), suspected 5,173 (21,558*), severe case 186 (2,296), death 57 (361), cured 147 (475), under observation: 152,700 nation-wide
2/3: confirmed 3,235 (20,438), suspected 5,072 (23,214*), severe case 492 (2,788), death 64 (425), cured 157 (634), under observation: 171,329 nation-wide
2/4: confirmed 3,887 (24,324), suspected 3,971 (23,260*), severe case 431 (3,219), death 65 (490), cured 262 (892), under observation: 185,555 nation-wide
2/5: confirmed 3,694 (28,018), suspected 5,328 (24,702*), severe case 640 (3,859), death 73 (563), cured 261 (1,153), under observation: 186,354 nation-wide
2/6: confirmed 3,143 (31,161), suspected 4,833 (26,359*), severe case 962 (4,821), death 73 (636), cured 387 (1,540), under observation: 186,045 nation-wide
2/7: confirmed 3,399 (34,546), suspected 4,214 (27,657*), severe case 1,280 (6,101), death 86 (722), cured 510 (2,050), under observation: 189,660 nation-wide
2/8: confirmed 2,656 (37,198), suspected 3,916 (28,942*), severe case 87 (6,188), death 89 (811), cured 600 (2,649), under observation: 188,183 nation-wide

*cumulative suspected = cumulative suspected on the previous day + daily suspected – those who tested positive or negative on the same day (my personal unofficial interpretation)

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Comment: both confirmed case and severe case, especially severe case, dropped substantially on 2/8

 

[shanlung]

Here are some counter examples.

The first North American case of 2019-nCoV was from a man who boarded a flight from China to the US around Jan 15 (not exact date). Hundreds of fellow passengers in an enclosed space for over 10 hours. Today is February 8th, more than 3 weeks later. No explosion of cases.

Similarly, first case in Canada, a man from a Jan 21 flight. 18 days later, only his wife is infected.

In fact, almost every North American case is someone who recently returned from China or a family member of someone who did.

If the 2019-nCoV is really so contagious, why did we not see mass infections from all those flights?

Alexander Pope :- "Hope beats eternal in the human breast"
You can even add


Coronavirus man brought wedding forward to take honeymoon cruise on Diamond Princess

By

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| Published: Feb 7, 2020

The Wolverhampton man being treated for coronavirus in Japan had brought his wedding forward specifically to take a honeymoon cruise on the Diamond Princess, the vicar who conducted the ceremony has revealed.

Wendy and Alan Steele pictured on their wedding day in Little Drayton. Photo: Amanda Reynolds
Alan Steele, 58, is being treated in hospital after

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. His new wife Wendy, 51, is still on board.

The couple had got married in Shropshire, where Mr Steele is from, on January 11 and were set to move in together in Wendy's home village of Tettenhall upon returning from their Asian cruise.

Reverend Jane Morris, vicar at Christ Church in Little Drayton, said: "They were going to get married in the summer but they came to me just before Christmas and asked if they could bring it forward so they could go on this cruise for their honeymoon.

And I mentioned
"Case 31: 53-year-old man stays at Tampines St 24
The 31st case of coronavirus in Singapore is a 53-year-old man who stays in Tampines Street 24.

According to MOH, he displayed symptoms on Jan. 23 and visited a general practitioner (GP) clinic on the same day.

He visited the GP clinic again on Jan. 28 and was admitted to CGH on Feb. 1.

He tested positive for the coronavirus on Feb. 6 at about 11pm.

Prior to admission to CGH, he went to The Life Church and Missions Singapore at 146B Paya Lebar Road and visited family and friends during the Chinese New Year (CNY)."
Latest update on that church (and more)

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extract
The Ministry of Health (MOH) announced seven more confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (nCoV) on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2020, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in Singapore to 40.

Due to further epidemiological investigations and contact tracing, MOH, with the help of the Singapore Police Force, has uncovered links between previously announced and new cases.

MOH has indicated a possible cluster involving five cases (Cases 8, 9, 31, 33 and 38) to The Life Church and Missions Singapore (LCMS) located at 146B Paya Lebar Road.

On the night of Feb. 8, LCMS has also informed the public that it has “stopped all Chinese and English services and meetings from 7 February”.

Wife Wendy did not get NCV while on honeymoon on Diamond Princess with her new hubby.
LCMS, led by Reverend Vincent Choo, has an estimated 100-120 strong adult congregation. And only 5 (so far) got the NCV.

Neither did everyone on board Diamond Princess got that NCV.

You feeling lucky?
Instead of going Wuhan or Singapore, go make a bet on the horses, or stock market

 

[Dolcevita]

This will give you folks here food for your thoughts.

Take a look at this Reddit posting.
Go into the Google map within that posting. And follow on the comments there.

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A great but I believe a futile attempt to trace routes taken by folks from Diamond Princess when the ship was in Keelung, Taiwan. Dropping folks to see the sights.

I spend many years in Taiwan, Taipei, and those spots shown in the map (go enlarge that map) are typical tourist areas.

And all from just that one guy from Hongkong.

Take a look at this recent posting in Singapore. And of course, they got to say "The risk of infection from transient contact, such as on public transport or in public places, is assessed to be low."

Is that saying medically reliable? Or wishful thinking and hoping.
No end of excitment living here in the hot zone.

Your turn might come where you can join in the fun.

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Taxi driver & private hire driver among 7 new coronavirus cases in S’pore on Feb. 8
Three drivers in total.

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February 8, 11:37 pm

The Ministry of Health announced seven new cases in Singapore on Feb. 8, 2020, bringing the total number of cases to 40.

Among the new cases, one was a taxi driver (case 35), while another was a private hire driver (case 37).

After the onset of symptoms, case 35 largely stayed at home, except to visit Redhill Market and a hawker centre at Bukit Merah for meals.


He was admitted to Singapore General Hospital (SGH) on Feb. 6.

Case 37 visited two GP clinics on Feb. 1 and Feb. 3, before being admitted to Ng Teng Fong General Hospital (NTFGH) on Feb. 6.

Prior to hospital admission, he worked as a private hire car driver and stays at Jurong East Street 32.

Previous case of private hire driver
Previously, another

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(case 27) was confirmed to be infected on Feb. 5.

However, it is likely that he had gotten the virus from his wife (case 19), who worked at the store where a group of Chinese tourists visited, sparking a cluster of cases.

This makes it a total of three drivers.

Grab has also just announced that GrabShare services will be temporarily suspended from Feb. 9, 1 am onwards, until further notice.


Drivers pick up a multitude of people and spend prolonged periods in close proximity with them.

More drivers these days have been observed to wear a mask.

MOH says that they continue to work with the Ministry of Transport to reach out to all taxi and private hire car drivers on the steps they should take to protect themselves in the course of their work.

The risk of infection from transient contact, such as on public transport or in public places, is assessed to be low.

If I may add. Drivers should also use gloves specially when handling passenger's luggages. This is most likely cause of transmission.

 

[localizer]

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On a positive note, there are 2656 new confirmed cases in all of China. This is a pretty significant decline from that of yesterday and the day before. Maybe the turning point is coming?

Yea it seems likely the rate is really going down.

Before they were limited by analytical throughout due to lack of technicians, machines, and reagents. They won’t have that issue when numbers are going down.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 7:46 AM

Yesterday at 8:13 AM... but not by much: 34876

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for tomorrow (Feb 9) it says 10^(-0.00319*22^2+0.17833*22+2.20664) which is 38543

... and in fact it's 37552 according to

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so I decided to show what the new parabola predicts ... stay tuned

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 7:46 AM
... and in fact it's 37552 according to

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so I decided to show what the new parabola predicts ... stay tuned

it's 10^(-0.00337*(DAY)^2+0.18372*DAY+2.16733) with DAY from 11 to 28

Jan29 6061 cases, 6032 from the fit
Jan30 7771 cases, 7703 from the fit
Jan31 9692 cases, 9686 from the fit
Feb1 11943 cases, 11992 from the fit
Feb2 14562 cases, 14618 from the fit
Feb3 17383 cases, 17544 from the fit
Feb4 20624 cases, 20732 from the fit
Feb5 24539 cases, 24122 from the fit
Feb6 28262 cases, 27634 from the fit
Feb7 31453 cases, 31170 from the fit
Feb8 34876 cases, 34616 from the fit
Feb9 37552 cases, 37852 from the fit
Feb10 40753 from the fit
Feb11 43200 from the fit
Feb12 45090 from the fit
Feb13 46337 from the fit
Feb14 46886 from the fit

 

[AndrewS]

Yea it seems likely the rate is really going down.

Before they were limited by analytical throughout due to lack of technicians, machines, and reagents. They won’t have that issue when numbers are going down.

if you look at the number of confirmed cases outside of Hubei (but still in China), you can see the numbers have been trending downwards for the past 6 days.

In Hubei, we can already see the 2day average has also been trending down for the past 4days.
That coincides with a 14days from the start of the quarantine.

14days is significant given an average incubation period of around 7days.

Plus another 7days for diagnosis *based on anecdotal reports from Wuhan*

 

[AndrewS]

it's 10^(-0.00337*(DAY)^2+0.18372*DAY+2.16733) with DAY from 11 to 28

Jan29 6061 cases, 6032 from the fit
Jan30 7771 cases, 7703 from the fit
Jan31 9692 cases, 9686 from the fit
Feb1 11943 cases, 11992 from the fit
Feb2 14562 cases, 14618 from the fit
Feb3 17383 cases, 17544 from the fit
Feb4 20624 cases, 20732 from the fit
Feb5 24539 cases, 24122 from the fit
Feb6 28262 cases, 27634 from the fit
Feb7 31453 cases, 31170 from the fit
Feb8 34876 cases, 34616 from the fit
Feb9 37552 cases, 37852 from the fit
Feb10 40753 from the fit
Feb11 43200 from the fit
Feb12 45090 from the fit
Feb13 46337 from the fit
Feb14 46886 from the fit

You have to start from Jan 24 rather than Jan 18.

That is when the quarantine really went into effect, and behavioural changes changed the infectivity rate

 

[Jura The idiot]

You have to start from Jan 24 rather than Jan 18.

...

Andy did you misstype? Today at 9:29 AM I said I started from Jan 29, not from your "Jan 18"

EDIT now noticed a certain type of

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did it pretty well

 

[Jura The idiot]

Today at 11:58 AM

... now noticed a certain type of

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did it pretty well

... and is simple; the center (xc of 18.331) corresponds to an inflection point between Feb 5 and Feb 6:

let's see the real world now