COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Yup I was simulating 747 with FMS on this old software back in the MSDOS days...
Chinese airlines are so invested into Euro-US maintenance and pilot training system. that it willl be really hard to switch over. so China will stick with Airbus and Boeing. Pilots and maintenance people have their own personal interest to have training on global products.
i just dont see Chinese government determined enough to change it.
Ofcourse, China has to look at its own industry and as long as Airbus/Boeing invests in China, China will play. But for Russia, It'd be a tough sell as it'd need to be competitive and also provide good support to MRO. Don't get me wrong, I want Russian programs to succeed. Both China and Russia must see the light at the end of the tunnel.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
I am not as pessimistic about the future here on Comac on exports.
First general market projections are the world will need over 43,000 new airliners between now and 2040. That’s more than enough aircraft to feed Airbus, Boeing, Comac, Embraer and UAC.
Next Airbus and Boeing have both been caught with some serious service problems in the last couple of years. Boeing first with the Max grounding now with the 787 production problems. Finally with 777X not selling like Boeing would like. Airbus is sweating paint issues with the A350 which it was hoping would sell like hot cakes. That egg will eventually clean up but some airlines might be more open to an alternative.
The MC21 of UAC and the Comac 919 both fall in the most popular class of narrow body size and stretch options could become available. The C929 in the large body type. Meaning that if they build them they will come.
It’s just a question of whom. Latin American, African airlines and especially Asian Airlines are likely to fall into the buying mood. Yes China is still likely to be the prime suspect. But Boeing projected the China’s market as the hottest. But the general Asian Pacific region was projected for over 17,600 units with China being 8,600 units or roughly half that. With the bulk of other Asian orders going to other South East Asian markets. Africa over 1,500 units. I doubt any brand in such will achieve a absolute dominance of the market as again we have 5 firms with degrees of overlap in offerings.
Ryan air’s interest in a 200 seater shows that foreign buyers are paying attention, and we know western companies are still pushing money at Chinese industry.
Baring some unicorn like a Supersonic airliner options seem open and after the max many aviation certifications are more complex and are less likely to accept an auto check because it passed FAA or EASA.
First general market projections are the world will need over 43,000 new airliners between now and 2040. That’s more than enough aircraft to feed Airbus, Boeing, Comac, Embraer and UAC.
Next Airbus and Boeing have both been caught with some serious service problems in the last couple of years. Boeing first with the Max grounding now with the 787 production problems. Finally with 777X not selling like Boeing would like. Airbus is sweating paint issues with the A350 which it was hoping would sell like hot cakes. That egg will eventually clean up but some airlines might be more open to an alternative.
The MC21 of UAC and the Comac 919 both fall in the most popular class of narrow body size and stretch options could become available. The C929 in the large body type. Meaning that if they build them they will come.
It’s just a question of whom. Latin American, African airlines and especially Asian Airlines are likely to fall into the buying mood. Yes China is still likely to be the prime suspect. But Boeing projected the China’s market as the hottest. But the general Asian Pacific region was projected for over 17,600 units with China being 8,600 units or roughly half that. With the bulk of other Asian orders going to other South East Asian markets. Africa over 1,500 units. I doubt any brand in such will achieve a absolute dominance of the market as again we have 5 firms with degrees of overlap in offerings.
| Regional | ARJ21, A220, Embraer E2, Superjet |
| Narrow body | C919, A320-A321,B737 Max-(NMA?), Mc21 |
| Wide body | Cr929, A330Neo-A350, B787-B777X |
Ryan air’s interest in a 200 seater shows that foreign buyers are paying attention, and we know western companies are still pushing money at Chinese industry.
Baring some unicorn like a Supersonic airliner options seem open and after the max many aviation certifications are more complex and are less likely to accept an auto check because it passed FAA or EASA.
The part of the plane under competitive performance pressure is the wing and the fuselage, not stuff like landing gears or avionics. You *assume* that every technology not substituted yet is a bottleneck but your assumption is that “they don’t go indigenous because they don’t have the capability”. There are plenty of reasons that a company may choose not to go with all domestic supply that have nothing to do with whether they *can*. And if you have to do a component switch mid program, it’s very natural for there to be a time delay before you see the new component whether indigenous or foreign procured because making these switches isn’t like going to a hardware store to buy parts.