COMAC C919

Njamba Nene said:

China eventually needs to sell the plane outside of domestic market if COMAC is to attain its goal. Initially, the domestic market might suffice for the domestic market, but expect future iterations to focus on international markets. establishing a secondary market that will allow airlines to renew their fleets is the next challenge for this model now.

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If the world follows the West's lead, China doesn't need outside markets in order for this airliner to survive. It's a question whether Boeing and Airbus' commercial airline industry will survive since China, the largest market for new airliners for the foreseeable future , will not be buying theirs. In the 1990s, the Chinese market saved Boeing from going bankrupt. If you're just talking business, that would be ideal but again doesn't need foreign orders to survive.

Airbus has predicted that China would need 7,600 passenger jets by 2037. COMAC has received a total of 901 confirmed orders and options/MOU. Such a huge market simply means COMAC can grow big by just meeting a fraction of the need of China market, and without exporting a single jet in the next 20 to 30 years.

Many people may not be awared that since April 2020, China had overtake USA as the largest civil aviation market in the World.

lcloo said:

Many people may not be awared that since April 2020, China had overtake USA as the largest civil aviation market in the World.

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2020 and, likely this year too, are aberrations. We should ignore these two years or wait until the aviation markets in both countries return to normal. Chinese aviation market is still behind the US one considerably in a regular year, although it grows faster. In fact, it is not expected to surpass the US one before 2025, as I remember the forecast before COIVD19.

weig2000 said:

2020 and, likely this year too, are aberrations. We should ignore these two years or wait until the aviation markets in both countries return to normal. Chinese aviation market is still behind the US one considerably in a regular year, although it grows faster. In fact, it is not expected to surpass the US one before 2025, as I remember the forecast before COIVD19.

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Unlikely for US civil aviation to recovered totally in this year due to Delta variant of COVID-19. Even if they retake the #1 spot in 2022 to 2023, IATA's last year prediction of China overtake USA is actually 2024.

So it will be interesting to see performance of US aviation market in next two years, bearing in mind while US is recovering, China is moving forward from position of strength.

"Air Capacity Update: China officially the largest aviation market in the world​

China has become the world's largest aviation market by seats as capacity in the US continues to be cut.

It has been predicted for some time that China will eventually take over from the US, which has held the position as long as aviation has existed, although no one could have predicted it would come this early.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) had predicted the change would occur 2024; however the impact of the COVID-19 virus on aviation markets - and China's bounce back - brought forward this major turning point.

While the accolade is somewhat bittersweet, and probably temporary, the result does affirm the fact that China's aviation market is beginning to improve after being devastated by COVID-19.

Significantly, the entirety of the capacity in China is its domestic market which makes up more than 95% of the total. "

Considering how much Americans rely on air travel, and how much Chinese population concentrate on the East third of the territory, and China's huge network of high speed rail, this is really something hard to imagine.

If (huge if) China was cut off from Western engines, could it power the C919 on its own?

The CJ1000 seems far from ready but what about the WS-20? Are they the same class of engines?

sndef888 said:

If (huge if) China was cut off from Western engines, could it power the C919 on its own?

The CJ1000 seems far from ready but what about the WS-20? Are they the same class of engines?

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Common question. Military engine is not as efficient as civilian types.

sndef888 said:

If (huge if) China was cut off from Western engines, could it power the C919 on its own?

The CJ1000 seems far from ready but what about the WS-20? Are they the same class of engines?

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WS-20 is not as advanced as CJ-1000

sndef888 said:

If (huge if) China was cut off from Western engines, could it power the C919 on its own?

The CJ1000 seems far from ready but what about the WS-20? Are they the same class of engines?

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CJ1000 likely wont be ready for another four or five years at least. but in the meantime I imagine China already has some GE engines previously purchased. worst case scenario it can take some engines from the grounded 737 max to hold them over til such time that CJ1000 is ready.