COMAC C919

I also think a cross airspace ban would be slightly worse for America.

Comac jets just needs to avoid USA which planes usually don’t overfly towards other destinations, while China sits smack in the middle of most Europe-Asia and Central Asia-Americas routes.

Not to mention if they rope Russia into also banning Boeing aircrafts, then USA jets will practically be banned from Eurasia.

I think it is a non-starter talking about potential sabotage of C919 program by sanctions. It is a suicidal act on the part of saboteur. Yes, blocking supply of components works, but it risk crippling retaliation. In this scenario, the players are holding the throat of one another. Airbus's becoming one of the two dominants is guaranteed by the fact that European airspace is big, the market is equal in size to the US, lucrative routes from and to Europe is as many as from and to US. Blocking GE engine and Honeywell components supply to Airbus was and is suicidal.

Essentially, it is more of political will, economical strength and market size. Technical matters is transparent and nobody can really fool anybody, therefor less of an obstacle.

Biscuits said:

I also think a cross airspace ban would be slightly worse for America.

Comac jets just needs to avoid USA which planes usually don’t overfly towards other destinations, while China sits smack in the middle of most Europe-Asia and Central Asia-Americas routes.

Not to mention if they rope Russia into also banning Boeing aircrafts, then USA jets will practically be banned from Eurasia.

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Russia is certainly onboard on that because of CR929 (the true inter-continental aircraft) is their baby too. Both Chinese and Russians are well aware that single-handily non of them can compete with AB or Boeing. Landmass, population and market is the key.

Russia has already had sanctions on their MC-21. So yes I could certainly see them do some sort of ban and it likely wouldn't take a lot of convincing.
In fact I have thought this is precisely what they could do to hit the US back.
All they have to do is ban US aircraft from their airspace and it would cost US companies dearly in fuel.

Ethiopian ambassador to China visited the COMAC recently...

FactsPlease said:

I agree with what you said, in general - to the extent the idea that "sanction due to military sector (involved)", BEFORE the trade war.

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A cold fact is: at any time, POTUS can announce this aircraft manufacture industry is "of national security interest". Refer to above Rand (I know, typical eagle. What else?) report - you can smell everywhere in the article warning NOT to let C919 succeed. And, don't forget what New York Times reported: the CEO of Boeing is calling Trump, not the chairman of FAA in that 737 Max case.

COMAC truly need to step on to complete its project ASAP.

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I'm afraid people here kind of misunderstand my original post, and jump to targeted (cross-)sanction and (cross-)grounding so quickly.

My point is actually bearing Huawei in mind: had USA clearly announced to sanction things like supply chain around Huawei? NO. Has it been targeted in the trade war? So obviously and definitely YES.

It's this kind of unfair and brutal absue (of so-called "free-trade") that I am thinking about.

FactsPlease said:

I'm afraid people here kind of misunderstand my original post, and jump to targeted (cross-)sanction and (cross-)grounding so quickly.

My point is actually bearing Huawei in mind: had USA clearly announced to sanction things like supply chain around Huawei? NO. Has it been targeted in the trade war? So obviously and definitely YES.

It's this kind of unfair and brutal absue (of so-called "free-trade") that I am thinking about.

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The fact that the campaign worked so poorly despite US using all it’s tricks on it’s own allies to boot doesn’t inspire confidence.

Comac will mostly sell to domestic and allied countries’ carriers. It will already put their smaller production into breaking capacity for a long time.

This is not really a money issue, it is more of a safety and quality one. Having Comac make the planes ensures they are of top quality and safety, as the buyers & govt know every part has passed regulations, while inspectors cannot enter a Boeing factory an ocean away.

If other countries add themselves to the waiting list, it will be a bonus.

Biscuits said:

The fact that the campaign worked so poorly despite US using all it’s tricks on it’s own allies to boot doesn’t inspire confidence.

Comac will mostly sell to domestic and allied countries’ carriers. It will already put their smaller production into breaking capacity for a long time.

This is not really a money issue, it is more of a safety and quality one. Having Comac make the planes ensures they are of top quality and safety, as the buyers & govt know every part has passed regulations, while inspectors cannot enter a Boeing factory an ocean away.

If other countries add themselves to the waiting list, it will be a bonus.

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These days the business model has changed, actual "buyers" are more and more those rental companies that are subsidiaries to major financial institutions, while the "actual users" aka airline companies - baring those major flag carriers who got the financial muscle to directly own their fleets - rent them on long-term lease. Airlines don't have to tie down so much of their own liquid assets into fixed and constantly depreciating assets (ie. airplanes), while major financial institutions enjoys a stable source of income.

So the endgame is to be decided if the user market would welcome alternative than to Airbus A320NEO (perhaps due to long waiting list) and most importantly, if 737 MAX series has fundamental flaws that cannot be fully rectified (or too expensive to do so, take your pick, though for Boeing to FUBAR that much is hard to imagine), and as such cause a market wide shortage of new planes availability. C919's "breakout opportunity" lies in if it could uphold the current schedule of first delivery by 2021.

On May 5, a 10,106 middle fuselage (including central wing) components of the C919 aircraft assembled by the new digital production line were successfully removed from the aircraft in xi'an aviation manufacture, marking the completion of the first aircraft production and application verification of the digital assembly line. The production line is China's most advanced digital assembly line for medium fuselage, which can meet the production requirements of C919 aircraft with high quality, high efficiency, high reliability and low cost. The production line is equipped with the digital assembly system of C919 middle fuselage and the digital posture adjustment docking system of C919 aircraft parts, completely eliminating manual posture adjustment, greatly increasing the assembly accuracy of components, shortening the pose adjustment period, and achieving efficiency increase and speed up in batch production. (photo by wang jun and qiao tao)

Via LKJ86
No.103
May 18, 2019