COMAC C919

taxiya

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I think the larger issue here is that C919's "reliance" on foreign component is being presented like it's "just as we planned! Those foolish Westerners are playing right into our hands."

The reality is, whether people like it or not, there is a high foreign parts content in the plane. In the event of a war, sanctions, or otherwise; switching all of these components to domestic parts or alternatives will take time. Even if it's as simple as switching a sticker. It's not really about where the parts are made, it's about making a competitive airliner that won't be killed by Western sanctions.

Imagine if the West started banning exports of C919 components 1 by 1, like they do with semiconductors.

Sure, you might have domestic alternatives, but every export restriction might ground the plane while parts are getting re-labeled and re-certified. That will hurt the plane's commercial appeal.


Thank you, my CIA boss will pat me on the back for my excellent research. Much appreciated.
Doesn't Boeing and Airbus having the same problem as COMAC in terms of relying on China's component? It doesn't matter the percentage of reliance, just stopping a rudder, leading edge or aft fuslage (Boeing parts from China) delivery will stop the whole planes production. Replacing these supplier means opening up new production lines (newly trained workers and toolings) which isn't easy nor quick. Nobody can afford stopping production for a year.

I think the "COMAC's reliance on west" is blown out of propotion by Chinese just like "West can strangle China" by the western propaganda.
 

tphuang

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Again, it's tiring to watch people complain and speculate about sanctions.

I have looked into ARJ-21 performance after several years of service and compared to another RJ type of aircraft here


here is a chengdu airlines operated ARJ-21
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here is a Jetblue operated E90
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And you will see that ARJ-21 is utilized quite a bit now. It's still not superb, but 6 hours air time a day is sufficient for a RJ. C919 will be expected to have higher air time than that and be expected to do R/T of 5 block hours both ways or 4 2+ hour flights a day.

Btw, here is ARJ-21 with TransNusa
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not to bad. About 4 flights a day and 6 hours air time, similar to Chengdu airlines
 

tankphobia

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What is the production rate of C919? The market is big enough that they can take whatever COMAC can produce, eventually even just servicing existing planes alone will be a major revenue source.
 

sndef888

Captain
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Just a pet peeve but I used to be worried the C919 was going to look ugly

Turns out it was just COMAC's ugly paint job + unprofessional photographers

The photos/videos from the China Eastern flight look so incredible

What is the production rate of C919? The market is big enough that they can take whatever COMAC can produce, eventually even just servicing existing planes alone will be a major revenue source.
Zhang Yujin, deputy general manager of the plane’s maker, the state-owned Commercial Aviation Corporation of China (Comac), in an interview with Shanghai-based media outlet Paper.cn on Thursday.
Zhang said the aircraft’s production will certainly be fast-tracked to grab a piece of the market share. In the next five years, the annual production capacity is planned to reach at least 150, and Comac said it has received more than 1,200 orders for the jet.
“We estimate that the [manufacturing] capacity for the C919 will reach 150 within five years, or even more. It is also a self-challenging duration for us,” Zhang added. “The domestic large-aircraft business will transform from comprehensive development to industrialisation.”
According to this Jan 2023 article, 150 per year by 2028
Anybody have any more specific estimates for 2023-2028?
 

sunnymaxi

Major
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What is the production rate of C919? The market is big enough that they can take whatever COMAC can produce, eventually even just servicing existing planes alone will be a major revenue source.
Just a pet peeve but I used to be worried the C919 was going to look ugly

Turns out it was just COMAC's ugly paint job + unprofessional photographers

The photos/videos from the China Eastern flight look so incredible, especially the supercritical wings



According to this Jan 2023 article, 150 per year by 2028
Anybody have any more specific estimates for 2023-2028?

COMAC held a meeting with suppliers last month and notified them about their serial production plan.

Zhang Yujin, deputy general manager of COMAC publicly announced “We estimate that the [manufacturing] capacity for the C919 will reach 150 units annually within five years, or even more.

as per the local media, from 2025 onward 50 units of C919 will be produced annually.

COMAC planning to build 2 more assembly lines of C919. Xian and Nanchang have been selected. though locations not officially announced yet.
 
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tphuang

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COMAC held a meeting with suppliers last month and notified them about their serial production plan.

Zhang Yujin, deputy general manager of COMAC publicly announced “We estimate that the [manufacturing] capacity for the C919 will reach 150 units annually within five years, or even more.

as per the local media, from 2025 onward 50 units of C919 will be produced annually.

COMAC planning to build 2 more assembly lines of C919. Xian and Nanchang have been selected. though locations not officially announced yet.

Well, if they want to reach 150/yr by 2028, then they better be up to 50 by 2025. Keep in mind that managing supply chain is a huge part of raising production. Aircraft manufacturers frequently overbook delivery slots and have delays in delivery. So, don't be disappointed if they are behind in deliveries. As long s aircraft are performing well, that's the most important part

I would say that they need to get to a point where they can build 12 C919s in a factory per month. They shouldn't have to select a new site that often. It makes managing supply chain harder.

Xian getting a plant is great, because it would most likely allow Xian/Shaanxi AC to get involved and split the civilian/military costs and lower its military production cost.


Btw, I want to point out the fact that COMAC has now raised ARJ-21 reliability enough to consistently fly 4 segments and 6 air hours day is quite the feat compared to where it started off. ARJ-21 really has been invaluable in helping COMAC gain experience on working with airlines, supply chain and such
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Airbus wasn't a serious competitor to Boeing until the A320 in 1987. By that time, Boeing had 70 years of operational history while Airbus was only 17. Yet where is Airbus now?
Airbus was a merger of several existing European aircraft manufacturers. For example French company Sud Aviation. That is one of the companies which made the Concorde. They also made the Caravelle in the 1950s. The HQ of Sud Aviation was in Toulouse, France. Guess where Airbus' main production facilities are to this day.
 

tphuang

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A week in and looks like these daily R/Ts on SHA-TFU is going pretty well. Consistently about 5 hours air time. It would be more interesting to hear from MU what the in service performance looks like

saw someone post this on weibo
连续上班第8天,沪蓉线打卡第7天。听说菜家有下正式单了?

我的目标是要作“一架乘客爱坐、飞行员爱飞、航空公司爱买的飞机”——
这几天看得出来大家都挺喜欢我,第一项应该是最快能实现的
[doge]

后续逐渐打开限制后,飞行员哥哥会发现阿九是个灵活的胖子,毕竟有伙伴已经发现我的逻辑比AB都合理
[酷]

至于“航空公司爱买”,这个得我和背后的伙伴们好生努力才行,优化昨天提到的那些经济指标
[吃瓜]
收起
I think this is still early. MU obviously would have quite a bit of data from its test flights also. But the 2 months pause in flying would be a concern for anyone. If they place a top up order soon, it would be a huge sign of confidence for the C919 program
 

tphuang

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Alright, a week of service on SHA-TFU. Looks good so far. 2nd C919 looks ready for test flights and delivery in a short time.

btw, you can follow here to see all the activities for COMAC aircraft
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for example, the pre-delivery activities can be seen here for B-919A, which is MSN 00007
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I do expect to see 8 in there soon, but it hasn't flown so far

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also check this. i think it's important to note that delivered airline and owner aren't always the same. C919 has a bunch of orders from lessors. Those lessors can take deliveries until they find customers.

So far, looks like just 5 ARJ-21 deliveries this year after 34 in 2022, so they will likely speed that up later. Most of the deliveries last year was after July. That's pretty weird. Again, maybe waiting on customers.

Transnusa just got their 2nd ARJ-21
 
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