COMAC C919

tphuang

tphuang

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So 2nd day of no issues from B919A along SHA to CTU

You can see that it has a relatively long turnaround time of almost 2 hours. Once they feel comfortable, that will probably get reduced to 60 to 90 minutes. As I said, 5 hour utilization is okay. To extend it, they can add a shorter destination that's 60 to 90 min away to increase utilization to around 8 hours/day. That's probably the next step. Or they could have it overnight at CTU as a test. Depends on how quickly MU's next C919 deliveries get put into service.
 
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abc123

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Abominable said:
There are two reasons to have foreign suppliers for multiple components.

1. Speed of production. It would have taken many more years for the C919 to come to market if every component was designed domestically. It may (probably will) become necessary in the future, but while China has a very strong trade balance there's not much they can do.
2. Capture of the international market. Having American, French, and other partners makes it easier to export to the respective companies. There's a lot of politics in exports and companies manufacturing components for the C919 will be 100% lobbying their governments to certify C919.
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Allright, but:
1. Trade sanctions will happen, sooner or later. China did get a taste of that during Trump Admin., it will only continue, especially after settlment of situation in Ukraine.
2. Forget about selling any Chinese aircraft to First World Nations. Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier/Embraer have that market cornered, even without a new Cold War against China.
So, if China has domestic market covered with odd Asian and African country, I would call that a sucess.
And to have that, you need to have 100% Made in China aircraft, and better sooner than later.

It is foolish to depend upon the US or any other Western country about these parts that are not under Chinese flag on that graphics a few pages before, and that's half of the aircraft.
 
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Abominable

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abc123 said:
1. Trade sanctions will happen, sooner or later. China did get a taste of that during Trump Admin., it will only continue, especially after settlment of situation in Ukraine.
2. Forget about selling any Chinese aircraft to First World Nations. Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier/Embraer have that market cornered, even without a new Cold War against China.
So, if China has domestic market covered with odd Asian and African country, I would call that a sucess.
And to have that, you need to have 100% Made in China aircraft, and better sooner than later.

It is foolish to depend upon the US or any other Western country about these parts that are not under Chinese flag on that graphics a few pages before, and that's half of the aircraft.
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The people at Comac aren't stupid. Do you think they sit around thinking everything is going to be fine with trade with the west in the coming years? They know dependence on the west is a ticking time bomb, and would like to be as little dependent on the west as possible.

As I said, it's a strategic choice. Any trade sanctions America implements will be met with counter sanctions. Airbus and Boeing can kiss goodbye to the Chinese market and they have a lot more to lose than the newcomer on the market. They will also need to fix their supply chains as Chinese components will suddenly become unavailable - we know how hard it is for Lockheed, let alone a civilian company.

Having western countries being so dependent on China is an insurance policy that lets Chinese companies utilise western technology. In other words it would be foolish not to leverage China's massive trade advantage to get products like the C919 to market quicker.

Asia and Africa aren't just odd countries, just the ME airliners are a massive market and combined the world is bigger than just than America and Europe. That's excluding the possibility that many new markets will be created if Comac can create a cheap and reliable plane.
 
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HighGround

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Abominable said:
The people at Comac aren't stupid. Do you think they sit around thinking everything is going to be fine with trade with the west in the coming years? They know dependence on the west is a ticking time bomb, and would like to be as little dependent on the west as possible.

As I said, it's a strategic choice. Any trade sanctions America implements will be met with counter sanctions. Airbus and Boeing can kiss goodbye to the Chinese market and they have a lot more to lose than the newcomer on the market. They will also need to fix their supply chains as Chinese components will suddenly become unavailable - we know how hard it is for Lockheed, let alone a civilian company.

Having western countries being so dependent on China is an insurance policy that lets Chinese companies utilise western technology. In other words it would be foolish not to leverage China's massive trade advantage to get products like the C919 to market quicker.

Asia and Africa aren't just odd countries, just the ME airliners are a massive market and combined the world is bigger than just than America and Europe. That's excluding the possibility that many new markets will be created if Comac can create a cheap and reliable plane.
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I think the larger issue here is that C919's "reliance" on foreign component is being presented like it's "just as we planned! Those foolish Westerners are playing right into our hands."

The reality is, whether people like it or not, there is a high foreign parts content in the plane. In the event of a war, sanctions, or otherwise; switching all of these components to domestic parts or alternatives will take time. Even if it's as simple as switching a sticker. It's not really about where the parts are made, it's about making a competitive airliner that won't be killed by Western sanctions.

Imagine if the West started banning exports of C919 components 1 by 1, like they do with semiconductors.

Sure, you might have domestic alternatives, but every export restriction might ground the plane while parts are getting re-labeled and re-certified. That will hurt the plane's commercial appeal.
zszczhyx said:
Don't have the original document. These are just rough translation, I can't guarantee the accuracy.
View attachment 113503View attachment 113500View attachment 113501View attachment 113502
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Thank you, my CIA boss will pat me on the back for my excellent research. Much appreciated.
 
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abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
HighGround said:
I think the larger issue here is that C919's "reliance" on foreign component is being presented like it's "just as we planned! Those foolish Westerners are playing right into our hands."

The reality is, whether people like it or not, there is a high foreign parts content in the plane. In the event of a war, sanctions, or otherwise; switching all of these components to domestic parts or alternatives will take time. Even if it's as simple as switching a sticker. It's not really about where the parts are made, it's about making a competitive airliner that won't be killed by Western sanctions.

Imagine if the West started banning exports of C919 components 1 by 1, like they do with semiconductors.

Sure, you might have domestic alternatives, but every export restriction might ground the plane while parts are getting re-labeled and re-certified. That will hurt the plane's commercial appeal.
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Agreed. If you want export sucess, people need to know that they can rely on you, not to tremble will or whenn the US/EU will put sanction on this or that component. Nobody needs that. It's simpler to buy Boeing or Airbus then.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

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abc123 said:
Agreed. If you want export sucess, people need to know that they can rely on you, not to tremble will or whenn the US/EU will put sanction on this or that component. Nobody needs that. It's simpler to buy Boeing or Airbus then.
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China is the world largest civil aviation market. need minimum 8000 narrow body aircrafts in next 20 years.

even with full expansion COMAC cannot fulfill domestic demand let alone export to foreign customers. COMAC can easily sustain their operation for 2 or 3 decades even if they concentrate on domestic market only.

but COMAC has dual strategy.

ARJ-21 get foreign customers and likely to get more in southeast Asian region. same strategy with C919. fulfil local demand as well as try to sale aircraft to friendly countries. mostly they will target Asia/Africa.
 
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Abominable

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HighGround said:
I think the larger issue here is that C919's "reliance" on foreign component is being presented like it's "just as we planned! Those foolish Westerners are playing right into our hands."
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That's exactly what I'm saying (not the last part).

The executives at COMAC had two options. Have a product on the market now or wait 5+ years for a fully indigenous plane. Having

The C919 is a civilian project, not a military one. It's fine to have foreign components for now.
HighGround said:
The reality is, whether people like it or not, there is a high foreign parts content in the plane. In the event of a war, sanctions, or otherwise; switching all of these components to domestic parts or alternatives will take time. Even if it's as simple as switching a sticker. It's not really about where the parts are made, it's about making a competitive airliner that won't be killed by Western sanctions.

Imagine if the West started banning exports of C919 components 1 by 1, like they do with semiconductors.

Sure, you might have domestic alternatives, but every export restriction might ground the plane while parts are getting re-labeled and re-certified. That will hurt the plane's commercial appeal.
Click to expand...
No, the reality is sanctions are a two way street. America (or the EU) won't be free to slap sanctions left right and centre on China and expect nothing in return. Both companies are just as exposed to components being made in China as COMAC is to the west.
As I said, Boeing and Airbus have far more to lose in a trade war compared to China.
 
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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
That's exactly what I'm saying (not the last part).

The executives at COMAC had two options. Have a product on the market now or wait 5+ years for a fully indigenous plane. Having

The C919 is a civilian project, not a military one. It's fine to have foreign components for now.

No, the reality is sanctions are a two way street. America (or the EU) won't be free to slap sanctions left right and centre on China and expect nothing in return. Both companies are just as exposed to components being made in China as COMAC is to the west.
As I said, Boeing and Airbus have far more to lose in a trade war compared to China.
Click to expand...

I understand what you are saying, but I think my point still stands.

Netherlands and Japan prostrated themselves and opened themselves up to retaliation from China just because United States asked them to.

China can hurt Airbus in a big way if US and EU decide that the C919 is a thread and it's time to "sanction" it. But, this is a risk the West is willing to take IMO. Sanctions on C919 are a serious concern, and I think they will try to kill this plane in the international market.

That said, I do agree with @sunnymaxi that China's domestic market is more than large enough to support this plane.
 
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