reposting what I tweeted in response to someone complaining about domestic %
COMAC fans should bookmark this
C919's ability to stay in the air will determine its competitiveness. Why SHA-CTU? Both are MU hubs that can service C919 in the event of breakdown. No airline wants to have hangar queens.
SSJ w/ 90% availability contributed to the bankruptcy of Interjet. E90 maintenance cost has been so high that JetBlue is dumping it despite avg of just 10 yrs of service. A220 spends too much time in the hangar despite rave reviews from DL & B6.
There will be many that expect C919 to have real problems on its EIS, like its 2 mths long delay into revenue service. Over the next few months, MU will determine C919's CASK (cost per available seat km). A top up order from MU will be the greatest vote of confidence.
Here is the thing, a top up order from MU (beyond its 5 initial firm orders) is more meaningful to COMAC than ICBC leasing's 100 orders. If C919 can consistently do 2 SHA-CTU type of R/Ts a day in a few months w/ competitive CASK to A320NEO, then MU can give up its 737s & go strictly w/ A320 & C919 series going forward.
Even the CN3 do not want to have 3 narrow body fleets. There is a lot of cost involved in that. Chinese airlines also have to compete. They cannot have C919s being out of action because COMAC picked a domestic supplier that wasn't ready