COMAC C919

Jianguo said:

I explicitly said I agree 100% with China's government policy but NOT the civilian sector. Where did I insinuate forcing purchases of non-existent planes that need many years to ramp up with still many foreign parts? You are misunderstanding what I am saying.


Mainline carriers are the problem, not the leasing companies, that is why I specifically focus on the problem, the "mainline carriers". Again, without orders to indicate to COMAC that a certain level of ramping up is required, COMAC will not tool up as fast as they should. Mainline carriers increasing their firm orders doesn't mean the leasing companies need to decrease their orders. They should all increase orders, ESPECIALLY the actual carriers who order next to nothing. You either get this or you don't.

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C919 being a first generation chinese civilian narrow body capable of ETOPS 120 only? maybe less?

They're not going to buy it immediately knowing that COMAC may release a new jet later down the line that is better based on the experience of the C919. its financial retardation to buy the C919 and then basically hold a bag of airplanes that isn't as effective or efficient when a new C919 version comes out (C919neo or something)

they're gonna play safe and rent it from leasors and i think thats completely fine. If the c919 flies good and more airlines want it, leasors can purchase more of it or they can purchase it themselves later on.

but having mainline airline companies go majorily in (direct ownership) on first generation domestic jet (that lets be honest is still weaker performance wise compared to the A320neo) is pure financial suicide and you don't know how airlines procure aircraft if you advocate for that. there's a reason why budget airlines buy the newest most efficient jets instead of buying cheaper older used ones for example.

COMAC if anything should be grateful their new jet gets over 500 orders at the start. Embraer E2-jet only got 200-300 orders and thats already 6 years running. and Embraer is fairly small company compared to the Big two. Mitsubishi's MRJ basically flopped and got cancelled. Bombardier C-series got sabotaged by Boeing and led to Bombardier aero being bought out by Airbus and the jet renamed as A220 to save the company. (and the A220 is slightly better IMO than the C919 even)

so yes, COMAC should be grateful for the initial orders and imo has passed the initial test thanks to strong DOMESTIC BACKING. let the airline industry feel out the jet and COMAC slowly improve on it. Building civilian aircraft in line with very strict modern safety standards is hard. Rushing Tooling for the first generation instead of letting it ramp up over time allowing for adjustment when COMAC updates the aircraft is inefficient and frankly asking for issues.

and BTW, a lot of the airbuses chinese airlines buy (and other asian markets) are assembled in tianjin. (i've been to the airbus factory there on the floor, its massive and epic)

the fact that C919, a jet that is for all intents and purposes inferior to A320neo and 737max (prior to MCAS stuff lmao) in efficiency, range, etc (which is understandable, again first generation high ETOPS narrow jet for COMAC) getting 500 orders despite costing almost, if not, the same as the two jets mentioned (as of May 2022 filing with shanghai stock exchange iirc) is a miracle and should be a clear sign that the chinese private aviation industry is willing to bet and sacrifice some of their profits to support their new budding domestic industry (Namely COMAC) should be clear sign that they do care about china being able to make their own jet.

Besides, you can't have a domestic civilian aviation manufacturing industry that is self reliant if you bankrupt your domestic private aviation industry (or at least pressure their bottom lines too much) for politics.

Rowdyhorse4 said:

They're not going to buy it immediately knowing that COMAC may release a new jet later down the line that is better based on the experience of the C919. its financial retardation to buy the C919 and then basically hold a bag of airplanes that isn't as effective or efficient when a new C919 version comes out (C919neo or something)

they're gonna play safe and rent it from leasors and i think thats completely fine. If the c919 flies good and more airlines want it, leasors can purchase more of it or they can purchase it themselves later on.

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This is an issue related to likely eventual sanctioning of China's aerospace industry. Using the Harvard Business School of comparative advantage in such an environment is eventual suicide.

Rowdyhorse4 said:

but having mainline airline companies go majorily in (direct ownership) on first generation domestic jet (that lets be honest is still weaker performance wise compared to the A320neo) is pure financial suicide and you don't know how airlines procure aircraft. there's a reason why budget airlines buy the newest most efficient jets instead of buying cheaper older used ones for example.

COMAC if anything should be grateful their new jet gets over 500 orders at the start. Embraer E2-jet only got 200-300 orders and thats already 6 years running. and Embraer is fairly small company compared to the Big two. Mitsubishi's MRJ basically flopped and got cancelled. Bombardier C-series got sabotaged by Boeing and led to Bombardier aero being bought out by Airbus and the jet renamed as A220 to save the company. (and the A220 is slightly better IMO than the C919 even)

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It's impossible for China to go in whole hog. The issue I have with the mainline carriers is that they aren't supporting COMAC enough in spite of the very obvious threat of industrywide sanctions which is progressively creeping into every tech sector in China. These planes basically will take many years to ramp up and fully domesticate local content to a level where China no longer needs to fear blanket sanctions. So, let's be clear on that. The problem is the lack of support from the commercial sector, specifically the mainline carriers. Unless COMAC and China's other critical companies, like SMEE, Huawei, ZTE, Dongfang Jingyuan, X-Epic, Siasun, Beigene, etc, etc, get the support they need to have the confidence to expand at the speed and scale they need to, then when the day the hammer comes down where sanctioning of planes, parts, and even support is withdrawn, that's when everybody will lament why China didn't go further.

This exact scenario happened recently in October 2022 when the American government placed blanket sanctions on China's semiconductor industry where even already purchased equipment with paid for support contracts were arbitrarily cancelled. If this happens in aerospace, what is China's options at that point? The Airbus/Boeing duopoly has a much tighter stranglehold on China's aerospace industry than ASML, TSMC, KLA have on China's semiconductor industry. If and when the US focus on aerospace, similar sanctions that withhold parts and support services for some reason, like some Taiwan conflict, Hong Kong genocide claim, whatever.... will result in the grounding of China's ENTIRE commercial airfleet. That's everything, including the ARJ-21. Unless China's commercial sector take this for what it is, an existential threat, then they will be left high and dry when the time comes. This is the reason why China's military aircraft have zero worries over this while the civilian aerospace sector can be shut down within a few weeks.

In case this still isn't clear, again...the C919 as a fully domestic product does not exist. What is needed is indications to COMAC that they are not wasting resources on orders that aren't there. It will take into the 2030s for COMAC to deliver 500 C919 if not 2035. 500 C919s at that point in time is obviously not enough given what we see happening now in 2023. The time to act is now. Increased focus, resources and investment now in 2023 will accelerate the development of the remaining sub-components in addition to eventual plant capacity such that by 2035, COMAC will not have delivered 500 C919s but perhaps 800 or even a 1000, which at time time will have long been fully domestic.

Jianguo said:

In case this still isn't clear, again...the C919 as a fully domestic product does not exist. Why ramp up? Nobody is ramping anything up. What is needed is indications to COMAC that they are not wasting resources on orders that aren't there. It will take into the 2030s for COMAC to deliver 500 C919 if not 2035. 500 C919s at that point in time is obviously not enough given what we see happening now in 2023. The time to act is now. Increased focus, resources and investment now in 2023 will accelerate the development of the remaining sub-components in addition to eventual plant capacity such that by 2035, COMAC will not have delivered 500 C919s but perhaps 800 or even a 1000, which at time time will have long been fully domestic.

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bro i have read all of your massages. just want to say one thing. relax and chill , follow my massages on this thread.

1. COMAC extensively working with local suppliers , local government to build the supply chain. C919 localization rate reached at 60 percent and i have said many times. by 2025 most of the critical C919 parts/subsystems/components will be made in China. from that point actual serial production will start.

production rate can be actually like this-

50 planes per year around 2025-26

70-100 planes per year around 2027-28

sunnymaxi said:

bro i have read all of your massages. just want to say one thing. relax and chill , follow my massages on this thread.

1. COMAC extensively working with local suppliers , local government to build the supply chain. C919 localization rate reached at 60 percent and i have said many times. by 2025 most of the critical C919 parts/subsystems/components will be made in China. from that point actual serial production will start.

production rate can be actually like this-

50 planes per year around 2025-26

70-100 planes per year around 2027-28

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I hope those production figures with higher localization come true. I'm optimistic that the CJ-1000A will have certification by sometime 2025-2027. All indications are that there was a materials breakthrough in the late 2010s allowing higher turbine temperatures with reduced weight. This is also reflected in China's military turbofans so the biggest obstacles will definitely be overcome. It's not the technical issues but the geopolitical timeline that worries me. There has been a dramatic acceleration of US/Western hostility and literal insanity going on. The question is, do we even have another year or two, let alone 5-10 years from now?

It should be remembered that at this point the C919 range is a limitation. In comparison to the latest offerings from Boeing and Airbus it’s short legged.
This actually has a historic precedent. The Boeing 747SR, the Japanese airlines wanted a very high volume passenger but regional range airliner. So Boeing stripped the 747 100 of fuel opening payload to passenger volume. Creating an airliner suitable for flying up and down the Japanese archipelago
The C919 being primarily built for domestic flights doesn’t need the intercontinental range that Boeing and Airbus want. As Boeing and Airbus are typically designing around the global market and especially global reach. Flights from the US to European, US to Asia, Asia to Europe, Northern to southern hemisphere.
Well typically regional airlines use shorter rougher fields China has been due to its love of Mega projects and infrastructure has established large modern airports suited to large aircraft. Though in theory HSR should have reduced demand on this HSR typically looses advantages beyond 650 miles. Has many have pointed out China has a large domestic aviation market. Emphasis on Domestic. China has a large land area much like Russia or the US and Canada with increasing centralization population centers served by airports that operate a mix of direct and hub and spoke models.

It seem like it will be sometime before Comac will be offering long range or special mission 919s and it’s still up in the air proverbially if the 929 will even come off the paper given the circumstances involving Russia.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

if the 929 will even come off the paper given the circumstances involving Russia.

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C929 project going really well.

Russia is going to move from partner to contractor. so their role in CR929 is like to be as a supplier rather than as a joint partner.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

It should be remembered that at this point the C919 range is a limitation. In comparison to the latest offerings from Boeing and Airbus it’s short legged.

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Its only 500 nm less than an A320NEO for the same payload, so it is not that short legged compared to an Airbus. Also, the A320NEO wasn't a thing when the C919 program was launched, which had a range of 3300 nm so the difference was even less, partially accounted for the fact that the the Comac is 1.5 ton heavier which will be improved in the following iterations

Rowdyhorse4 said:

we haven't even touched the non-politic issue in mass purchasing of the new jet. it needs to get clearance from foreign nations Aviation authorities before it could fly in their airspace which limits chinese airline's flexibility of operating the jet when they need to service an international route that doesn't require long haul. In time, i believe as the jet gradually increases service and get approved for flight through other nations, more would order.
if i recall, the Y-20 needed to get an air worthiness certificate from EASA before they could fly within EU airspace (For Serbia FK-3 delivery and the Y-20's Visit to austria for an airshow). this takes time.

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Even if COMAC was to localize to 100% right now, there are significant regulatory clearance hudrles even for purely domestic air worthiness certification. Major changes (i.e., flight systems, engines, etc) require significant validation & verification plus regulatory review. Even changes that are non-significant get alot more scrutiny now thanks to Boeing and the 737max. For something with as significant implications as Comac 919, you do not want to do a rush job just to hit benchmarks. If you botch the localization in order to meet political objectives you can be sure that the reputation of Comac, its current and future aspirations will take along time to recover even domestically. Yes, there is a risk due to lack of 100% localization but that is something that has to be dealt with. In fact, I suspect the reason the C919 took so long is because of the rigorous regulatory process, especially after the FAA dropped the ball with Boeing.

Fuel capacity of the C919 is 24,917 L while A320neo is 29,659 L.
The A320neo carries 19% more fuel. And it has 17% more range. Big whoop.