I think it is ok for the Chinese government not to press on them too much to buy COMAC aircraft until China can make its own engines for C919. But I agree that not ordering more of the C919 makes these companies part of the problem. Reduced orders means reduced investment into production which would then be available if sanctions do occur.
COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
To be fair, I think we are only seeing the beginning of the C919's journey.
Chinese airlines (and leasing companies) placing orders for a meager amount of C919s right now does not mean that Chinese airlines (and leasing companies) would be satisfied with only having that meager number of C919s for the entire production run of the C919.
Just like what @geloog has said, when the CJ-1000A has successfully made it onto the C919 and received airworthiness certification, perhaps by then Chinese airlines would feel more confident and experienced on the operation of C919, thus proceeding to place more orders for the C919 - I mean, who knows?
Furthermore, what if COMAC decided that they want to develop variants for the C919? C919-100? -200? -300? -400? -500? Perhaps one or more of those C919 variants that COMAC offers are actually more suitable for the Chinese airlines' operational requirements than the sole base C919 variant that we have today?
Nothing is set in stone for C919 and COMAC. So I would advice all to stay calm and observe.
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They do exactly what they are already doing, with the exception of allocating several dozen firm orders to COMAC with maybe 100 on option. If they don't do this, COMAC won't have a reason to ramp up the tooling as fast and they also go to the back of the line if the situation ever arises that China is sanctioned from already paid for orders, parts and service like what happened with LAM, KLA and AMAT in the semiconductor industry. The lack of urgency is the problem. It takes time for things to spool up and without indications from China's leading mainline carriers, the urgency will be on the backburner until the think tankers in America and their pets decide to zero in on aerospace as their next target in China.
We all know this isn't theory. There were already threats of sanctioning the LEAP-1C to cripple the C919 and COMAC was placed on the entity list. China is in serious danger whether they order the C919 or Boeing/Airbus. The main difference is, this situation will take time to evolve and while there is still time, China can wean itself off of the most dangerous pressure points for sanctioning. If China can hold off aerospace sanctions to 2026-2029, there's a chance the CJ-1000A will be fully certified. All the other elements already have domestic counterparts or are further along than the engine. This is a major reason why I believe China doesn't retaliate in the face of unprovoked blacklisting and sanctions. It's to buy time! Once China has adequately domesticated these chokepoints, China will be practically unbeatable. Btw, when I say chokepoints, I'm not just referring to aerospace obviously.
I'm gonna throw one million dollar at you.
My enemy is going to call me out for a gun duel tomorrow.
Can you make me a submachine gun by tonight - from scratch?
And I only want a submachine gun. Not a pistol, not a snipe rifle, not a minigun.
Talking about urgency to replace the engines but people seem to forget the avionics and flight computers within the C919 is also provided by Rockwell Collins (from Weather Radar to Autopilot to Nav). The Electrics, APU, Landing gear and FMS is designed and provided by Honeywell with the Europeans filling some stuff like Anti-Ice and other bits and bobs. Its not to say COMAC didn't play a part in designing the jet, they also play a huge part. But its not a jet that would be immune to sanctions with a single engine swap considering that its design was an international cooperative project from the getgo.
Honeywell for one was at least pretty proud of their product being used the C919 when i saw then in a aero convention prior to 2020.
i believe it would be a good jet and provide a step towards competing with the duopoly but going gungho about chinese airlines not purchasing more of it for the sake of "domestic reliance" seems to be counterintuitive considering the jet is an international project and relies on a lot of foreign parts as well that is critical to its functionality. the CJ-1000 won't save the jet from sanctions if the Flight computer controlling it (FADEC) can't be purchased due to sanctions.
Honeywell for one was at least pretty proud of their product being used the C919 when i saw then in a aero convention prior to 2020.
i believe it would be a good jet and provide a step towards competing with the duopoly but going gungho about chinese airlines not purchasing more of it for the sake of "domestic reliance" seems to be counterintuitive considering the jet is an international project and relies on a lot of foreign parts as well that is critical to its functionality. the CJ-1000 won't save the jet from sanctions if the Flight computer controlling it (FADEC) can't be purchased due to sanctions.
we haven't even touched the non-politic issue in mass purchasing of the new jet. it needs to get clearance from foreign nations Aviation authorities before it could fly in their airspace which limits chinese airline's flexibility of operating the jet when they need to service an international route that doesn't require long haul. In time, i believe as the jet gradually increases service and get approved for flight through other nations, more would order.
if i recall, the Y-20 needed to get an air worthiness certificate from EASA before they could fly within EU airspace (For Serbia FK-3 delivery and the Y-20's Visit to austria for an airshow). this takes time.
if i recall, the Y-20 needed to get an air worthiness certificate from EASA before they could fly within EU airspace (For Serbia FK-3 delivery and the Y-20's Visit to austria for an airshow). this takes time.
Oh man, i just remembered this video.
yeah international project and honeywell was proud of it i guess.
also foreigners butchering chinese haha
yeah international project and honeywell was proud of it i guess.
also foreigners butchering chinese haha
I already addressed this when I spoke of China's moves to buy time. The more China's civilian sector drags their feet, the more opportunity it allows for future attacks. India is a perfect example of somebody with a million dollars who spends it on a submachine gun instead of using that money to R&D their own pistol. They've been wasting billions for decades buying foreign equipment so that they get relatively quick results. So, I'm not condoning that sort of policy.
My opinion is exactly the same as China's government, but completely opposed to China's business community who follow the Harvard Business School of comparative advantage that has some resemblance to how India's government behaves. There are a plethora of examples of how China caught up to leading edge technologies by first assembling and then gradually incorporating increasingly complex sub-components. The C919 is just another such example. The main problem with the C919, is not the plane itself, but China's civilian sector who follow the laws of comparative advantage. They simply won't hedge their bets if there is a clear economic edge with foreign products. It's only in the face of outright bans and over the top persecution will they turn the corner like they did recently with the AMAT, KLA, LAM fiasco. Although I think the airline leasing companies are just fine, the mainline carriers are almost a disgrace. I think there needs to be government directives to guide the success of prominent items like the C919. In the face of unrelenting attacks, China cannot let the civilian sector run like they have. I wouldn't be surprised if there has already been some government involvement in the business affairs of the leasing companies.
All I could say is - Rome wasn't built in a day.
Apparently you still don't want to understand the simple fact where more than half the planes which Chinese airlines are operating right now are rented from aircraft-leasing companies.
I'm done.
I explicitly said I agree 100% with China's government policy but NOT the civilian sector. Where did I insinuate forcing purchases of non-existent planes that need many years to ramp up with still many foreign parts? You are misunderstanding what I am saying.
Mainline carriers are the problem, not the leasing companies, that is why I specifically focus on the problem, the "mainline carriers". Again, without orders to indicate to COMAC that a certain level of ramping up is required, COMAC will not tool up as fast as they should. Mainline carriers increasing their firm orders doesn't mean the leasing companies need to decrease their orders. They should all increase orders, ESPECIALLY the actual carriers who order next to nothing. You either get this or you don't.